Gubernatorial Ratings and Predictions - Florida
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Poll
Question: (1) Rate Florida and (2) Predict Who Will Win
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss-Up		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Safe R		  
#8
Ron DeSantis (R)		  
#9
Andrew Gillum (D)		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 87

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Gubernatorial Ratings and Predictions - Florida  (Read 1299 times)
ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« on: October 05, 2018, 09:02:04 PM »
Previous threads you can still vote in: Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut

Lean D, though will consider toss-up if polling is closer or generic ballot closes, 52-47 Gillum for now.

The next poll, Georgia, will have a runoff component of the poll, as will the Mississippi special senate race.

Ratings



No Election: 7
Safe D: 1
Likely D: 2
Lean D:
Toss-Up:
Lean R: 2
Likely R:
Safe R: 2
No Election: 7

Predictions



Democrats: 10
Republicans: 11

Pickups

Alaska (R+1)

Net: R+1
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2018, 09:03:58 PM »
Toss-Up, Gillum 50-48. Ask me again in two or three weeks, though.
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IceSpear
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E: -6.19, S: -6.43

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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2018, 09:42:42 PM »

This, though I'm still uneasy about this race. It's still Florida after all.
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Xing
xingkerui
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E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2018, 10:54:20 PM »
Going to say Lean D, though I expect the margin to be narrow, like 51-48 for Gillum. If more polls show him only up by 1-2, I'll move this back to Toss-Up.
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andjey
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2018, 02:51:00 AM »
Lean D/Gillum 51-47
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Skye
yeah_93
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2018, 06:36:47 AM »
It leans D for now. I'd say Gillum wins 51-47
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2018, 07:49:13 AM »
I voted tossup but this race obviously has a strong D tilt. Gillum will most likely win.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2018, 10:09:57 AM »
Toss-up; Gillum wins 50-48%.
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Orser67
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2018, 10:55:49 AM »
I have it at Lean D, but I honestly think that Gillum is a fairly strong favorite (though the margin will likely be fairly close). He picked the right year to run: Republican mid-term, very conservative opponent, and some voters may want a change after 20 years of GOP control of the office of governor.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2018, 12:26:47 PM »

He does about as well as Obama did in 08 except maybe he doesn't win Daytona but wins Jacksonville instead. He probably wins Pinellas, and probably one but not both of St. Lucie and Monroe.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2018, 08:23:33 PM »
In spite of my bias against Florida and my premature bed-wetting over Gillum getting the nomination I am going to say that this is lean D. Ron DeSantis has proven to be as incompetent as his idol, Donald Trump, except that he'll probably lose his election.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2018, 10:05:56 PM »
Likely D. Gillum wins by at least four points.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2018, 01:26:29 AM »
Tilt D
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Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2018, 07:43:43 AM »
Gillum's favorables are holding--and if this continues to hold, I think he'll pull it out 50-48.  The fact that he has polled at 50+ in several surveys is encouraging.
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