Which race is the most likely Democratic pick-up after Illinois and New Mexico?

[Politician]

Michigan is a clear first: ME, WI, and NV are, at this point with the limited information we have, tied for second. Then comes FL (pure tossup or tilt D at very best), and then NH (lean R).

NH is way less likely to flip than some other states you didn't mention. Off the top of my head, I can think of OH, IA, KS, and OK.

You’re basing this solely on August polls? OH, KS and maybe OK, okay, but IA more likely to flip than NH? No way.

Iowa is definitely more likely to flip. Hubbell is basically tying in polls and Trump's and Reynolds's approval isn't good there. Sununu is beating both opponents by double digits right now.

[MT Treasurer]

Michigan is a clear first: ME, WI, and NV are, at this point with the limited information we have, tied for second. Then comes FL (pure tossup or tilt D at very best), and then NH (lean R).

NH is way less likely to flip than some other states you didn't mention. Off the top of my head, I can think of OH, IA, KS, and OK.

You’re basing this solely on August polls? OH, KS and maybe OK, okay, but IA more likely to flip than NH? No way.

Iowa is definitely more likely to flip. Hubbell is basically tying in polls and Trump's and Reynolds's approval isn't good there. Sununu is beating both opponents by double digits right now.

The only poll released so far shows Reynolds ahead by 5. I simply refuse to believe that IA will vote to the left of NH this year, and the trend is certainly in Molly Kelly's favor.

[libertpaulian]

Michigan is a clear first: ME, WI, and NV are, at this point with the limited information we have, tied for second. Then comes FL (pure tossup or tilt D at very best), and then NH (lean R).

NH is way less likely to flip than some other states you didn't mention. Off the top of my head, I can think of OH, IA, KS, and OK.

You’re basing this solely on August polls? OH, KS and maybe OK, okay, but IA more likely to flip than NH? No way.

Iowa is definitely more likely to flip. Hubbell is basically tying in polls and Trump's and Reynolds's approval isn't good there. Sununu is beating both opponents by double digits right now.

The only poll released so far shows Reynolds ahead by 5. I simply refuse to believe that IA will vote to the left of NH this year, and the trend is certainly in Molly Kelly's favor.

Hubbell is running a pretty strong campaign for a Democrat in a rural R-trending state that hasn't lost its elasticity (at least not yet).  Meanwhile, Sununu has the advantage of incumbency while not taking this election for granted due to his own state's elasticity.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Michigan is a clear first: ME, WI, and NV are, at this point with the limited information we have, tied for second. Then comes FL (pure tossup or tilt D at very best), and then NH (lean R).

NH is way less likely to flip than some other states you didn't mention. Off the top of my head, I can think of OH, IA, KS, and OK.

I agree that all of those do flip before NH (especially OH and KS): I was just using the six listed explicitly in the poll.

EDIT: Apparently NH was never in the poll. Maybe I saw some other post and got confused.

[MT Treasurer]

Hubbell is running a pretty strong campaign for a Democrat in a rural R-trending state that hasn't lost its elasticity (at least not yet).  Meanwhile, Sununu has the advantage of incumbency while not taking this election for granted due to his own state's elasticity.

The bolded part applies to Reynolds as well.

[Free Bird]

Michigan I reflexively think of as going blue this cycle by now when I think of it. That's not the case with the other four. I genuinely don't know who'll win when I think about them.

[libertpaulian]

Hubbell is running a pretty strong campaign for a Democrat in a rural R-trending state that hasn't lost its elasticity (at least not yet).  Meanwhile, Sununu has the advantage of incumbency while not taking this election for granted due to his own state's elasticity.

The bolded part applies to Reynolds as well.

Reynolds got this seat because her boss got a cushy job in a foreign country.  She was handed this seat. 

This election will prove whether she can win the seat on her own merits.  So, while she's an incumbent by technicality, she's also not an incumbent in the sense that she's won the slot and has been entrenched in it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Great Lake State.

[Politician]

Hubbell is running a pretty strong campaign for a Democrat in a rural R-trending state that hasn't lost its elasticity (at least not yet).  Meanwhile, Sununu has the advantage of incumbency while not taking this election for granted due to his own state's elasticity.

The bolded part applies to Reynolds as well.

Reynolds got this seat because her boss got a cushy job in a foreign country.  She was handed this seat. 

This election will prove whether she can win the seat on her own merits.  So, while she's an incumbent by technicality, she's also not an incumbent in the sense that she's won the slot and has been entrenched in it.

We’ll find out soon enough, I guess. I just think you’re letting your personal feelings about NH/Sununu influence your ratings.

[Scottholes 2.0]

If Iowa flips, then Wisconsin most definitely will, too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kim Reynolds isn't losing reelection.