40-41%, with Kasich running in the general and taking about 5-6%
Even if I'm wrong, I'm pretty certain it won't reach 46% again. Maybe 42-44%.
I'm curious as to why people think he'll get even close to a majority when his approvals as president have never been above 45%, and are usually somewhere from 38-41%, and he hasn't done a single thing to improve his numbers beyond his 2016 base while having already lost some of that. I honestly don't see him winning the PV or EC without some sort of catastrophic attack happening close to election day.
Here we go again parroting this meaningless talking point.
First of all, Trump's approvals haven't been averaging 38-41% since March-April. As much as Atlas likes to ignore certain polls, the fact is that his RCP average has been in the 42-44% range for the last four months.
Secondly, I will point out for the millionth time that Reagan, Clinton, and Obama all had approval ratings in the mid-40s throughout the second years in office, and all went on to comfortably win second terms. Atlas posters like to ignore and talk around this inconvenient truth, usually by hurling a personal insult at the person who brings it up. That being said, history shows us that Year 2 approval ratings and midterm results for US presidents tell us very little about their reelection prospects.
Finally, I will point out for the millionth time that Trump won 306 EV's in 2016 with a 38.7% favorability rating, while outperforming that figure in the NPV by 7.4%. It is fair to assume that at least some voters who disapprove of Trump will disapprove of his opponent as well, thus rendering the metric meaningless for those voters. I should remind you that voters won't be voting in 2020 on whether they like Trump, but rather will be voting on whether they
they prefer him to his opponent. This is where incumbency advantage comes in, and factors such as a good economy and peace on the world stage can push him over his approval numbers in the NPV.
Poll
