Predict Arizona in 2020

[Skill and Chance]

Tilt D.  It should vote for the Dem candidate even if they narrowly lose the election.

[SingingAnalyst]

Tilt D.  It should vote for the Dem candidate even if they narrowly lose the election.

Interesting; I believe that would be a first for Arizona.

[Skill and Chance]

Tilt D.  It should vote for the Dem candidate even if they narrowly lose the election.

Interesting; I believe that would be a first for Arizona.

It actually had a big Dem PVI throughout the FDR-Truman years.  Of course, the Dems won all of those elections, but Arizona would almost surely have voted Dem in a narrow loss scenario.

[Thunder98]

Maricopa and Yuma Counties flips to the Dems, while Mohave, Greenlee and La Paz counites trend even more GOP. Coconino , Yuma, Maricopa, Pima and Apache counties swing heavily to the Dems, The rest of the counties see nominal change.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Lean R.

The problems at the border have hardened AZ conservative voters into a Republican mold.  They had been softening at one point, and may again, but the D trend is all demographics.  And conservative retirees are still coming to AZ to live, so . . .

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yet again, it's either a tossup or leans R, depending on the Democratic candidate. It's going to be more competitive than ever yadda yadda yadda Maricopa County is the key yadda yadda.

[TarHeelDem]

Toss-Up to Tilt D. Not sure at the moment.