Is AZ really still a toss up?

[Mr. Illini]

Cook still says so. I don't buy it.

[Virginiá]

Nope. I don't think it is. Flake barely won in 2012 as it is, and his potential successors are hardly the stuff dreams are made of.

Wave year + open seat + weak (and potentially really weak) opponent + state trending Dem + decent Dem. candidate who coasted through primary season = Leans D

The first 2^ are particularly meaningful, especially it being an open seat.

[IceSpear]

As of now Sinema is clearly favored, but I'm interested in seeing what the polls say after McSally wins the primary.

[CityofSinners]

As of now Sinema is clearly favored, but I'm interested in seeing what the polls say after McSally wins the primary.

[Xing]

As of now Sinema is clearly favored, but I'm interested in seeing what the polls say after McSally wins the primary.

This. Also, Nevada being a Toss-Up is even sillier.

[IceSpear]

As of now Sinema is clearly favored, but I'm interested in seeing what the polls say after McSally wins the primary.

This. Also, Nevada being a Toss-Up is even sillier.

Lol, I was going to say that too, but I didn't want to make another Nevada discussion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, it Tilts D

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

It's a Likely D race.

[libertpaulian]

Lean D.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

McSally= Lean D
Ward- Likely D
Arpaio- Safe D

[Webnicz]

Its looking Lean D at the best, McSally is currently wasting her money on kelli ward, and theres quite a few negative ads out against her, meanwhile there havent been any negative ads on sinema, ony positive ones. Makes the GOP race look like nothing other than a mud fest.

[Former Kentuckian]

Sitting comfortably between lean and likely D. McSally will win the Republican nomination but she won't be able to wipe the stinch off of her

[Orser67]

I've had it at Lean D since at least late 2017.

[Brittain33]

I'm uncomfortable going on polls until the primary is settled since it inflates the numbers of the candidate without the primary.

[BuckeyeNut]

Keeping it toss up is the small "c"  conservative thing to do. As with Wisconsin, it will probably shift a Step toward the Democrats after the primary is over. For the time being, toss up is fine.

[😥]

No, Lean D

[Yellowhammer]

Strong Lean D, but I would not rule out the possibility of it tightening up after the primary.

[UncleSam]

Honestly I think it is. Mcsally will rally support once the primary is over, and Arizona just feels conservative enough to make this a tight race in a strong Dem year.

If Mcsally loses the primary this becomes Likely or Safe D, obviously.

[here2view]

As of now Sinema is clearly favored, but I'm interested in seeing what the polls say after McSally wins the primary.

I agree. I also think it's Lean D but probably a tad toward Tossup than Likely D.

[Greatblueheron]

Yes, Arizona is still a Tossup. Democrats need to understand, that theirs a high chance that once Mcsally wins the Republican primary, she will consolidate enough support to take a small lead over Sinema in the general election.

[Webnicz]

New poll dropping at 10 pm AZ time

[mencken]

Unless Sinema is as bad a candidate as Clarence "Bill" Nelson, this belongs in the Pennsylvania/Wisconsin/Ohio tier more so than the Montana/West Virginia/Missouri/Indiana tier (and even the latter are not real tossups)

[pops]

Republicans are insane if they think this is a toss up. I've had this Safe D for ages but a few weeks ago switched to Likely D - but still about 85-90% chance of a Democrat win I think.