Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Umengus]

Today the Knesset will vote on the first of three readings for a bill to dissolve the Knesset and go to elections. It should pass easily and will be supported  by Liberman, who is basically set against any possible compromise at this point. New elections will likely be at the end of August

Naftali Bennett announced that the New Right will run,in the new elections and it is unclear whether that will include Ayelet Shaked, who was rumored to be considering running with Liberman but has since denied those rumors. The Arab parties are likely to once again run as a joint list, which would probably instantly net a few extra mandates for the left. They ate meeting tonight to formalize that.

shaked rumoured on the likud list.

[Walmart_shopper]

Bibi is apparently set to officially announce new elections for August.

I have no clue if the result will be meaningfully different, but I'm pretty sure that it is going to be a dramatically different campaigm and election, which may very well also change the final result. איזה כיף.

What I've heard is that the polling right now is very strong for the right wing. But obviously that doesn't include an Arab Joint List or a joint Meretz-Labor run. A lot will change in just the next month, but if the right wing parties are looking at great poll numbers then it's understandable why they'd be quick to pull the trigger on new elections.

[Vosem]

Would all the parties hold fresh primaries or would they just repeat the lists from last time?

[Walmart_shopper]

Would all the parties hold fresh primaries or would they just repeat the lists from last time?

The election will be run as a totally new election, with the usual three months gap to allow for primaries.

I think the natural impulse is simply to use the original slates because primaries are expensive and time-consuming. But you can see how a party like Labor would be highly inclined to choose again after flopping in April.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Would all the parties hold fresh primaries or would they just repeat the lists from last time?

The election will be run as a totally new election, with the usual three months gap to allow for primaries.

I think the natural impulse is simply to use the original slates because primaries are expensive and time-consuming. But you can see how a party like Labor would be highly inclined to choose again after flopping in April.

Labour would do well to go with the current, strong list, maybe without Russo in the reserved spot, especially since wasting money on another list primary AND leader primary would be stupid. The leader, however, should absolutely be changed.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah if parties like New Right are going to go along with the New Election message than something has to give financially. I don't think anyone's list was really horrible last time around, except maybe Labour who could use a bit of shuffling. I don't think there was any scandals concerning MKs, besides the UNRP/Arab fiasco which was expected from the very start. Likud has incentives to avoid the primary since it risks a magnification of the issues that made the top-slot contest interesting last time around. B&W of course has seat sharing restrictions. So primaries might just be ignored since they are costly and the elected MKs i April has little time to really take their seats.

Here's a thought: Do the bans on URWP members expire since they only 'lasted' for the April election, or do they remain in place? Because if they do not, that discussion will probably be restarted and repeated.

[brucejoel99]

September 17th has now been confirmed as the election date if the Knesset passes the dissolution bill.

[Walmart_shopper]

Would all the parties hold fresh primaries or would they just repeat the lists from last time?

The election will be run as a totally new election, with the usual three months gap to allow for primaries.

I think the natural impulse is simply to use the original slates because primaries are expensive and time-consuming. But you can see how a party like Labor would be highly inclined to choose again after flopping in April.

Labour would do well to go with the current, strong list, maybe without Russo in the reserved spot, especially since wasting money on another list primary AND leader primary would be stupid. The leader, however, should absolutely be changed.

Labor would absolutely need a new leadership contest.

[Vosem]

Can the title of the thread be changed to "Israeli General Elections 2019"?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Would all the parties hold fresh primaries or would they just repeat the lists from last time?

The election will be run as a totally new election, with the usual three months gap to allow for primaries.

I think the natural impulse is simply to use the original slates because primaries are expensive and time-consuming. But you can see how a party like Labor would be highly inclined to choose again after flopping in April.

Labour would do well to go with the current, strong list, maybe without Russo in the reserved spot, especially since wasting money on another list primary AND leader primary would be stupid. The leader, however, should absolutely be changed.

Labor would absolutely need a new leadership contest.

Yep. But the list is fine. There's really no problem with it, except maybe Russo.

[The Mikado]

Is the Labor-Meretz merger that was proposed earlier still seriously on the table? If so, that'd require a serious rewrite to the list.

[Hnv1]

Yeah if parties like New Right are going to go along with the New Election message than something has to give financially. I don't think anyone's list was really horrible last time around, except maybe Labour who could use a bit of shuffling. I don't think there was any scandals concerning MKs, besides the UNRP/Arab fiasco which was expected from the very start. Likud has incentives to avoid the primary since it risks a magnification of the issues that made the top-slot contest interesting last time around. B&W of course has seat sharing restrictions. So primaries might just be ignored since they are costly and the elected MKs i April has little time to really take their seats.

Here's a thought: Do the bans on URWP members expire since they only 'lasted' for the April election, or do they remain in place? Because if they do not, that discussion will probably be restarted and repeated.

Bans expire and will need to be replaced by the new election committee.

I can't see Labour or Meretz having the financial strength to contest this alone again. As I understand the law B&W don't get party funding yet which is also a major blow. Rumors Shaked isn't coming back to the NR

[Hnv1]

Is the Labor-Meretz merger that was proposed earlier still seriously on the table? If so, that'd require a serious rewrite to the list.

Can't see it. Labour would definitely hold leadership primaries in the short time left and it will leave a very small window for both parties to have a joint run approved (bear in mind lists are due 45 days before the election meaning early August).

Most parties' constitution drafters never thought this scenario would ever be possible. just to show you how bonkers everything is.

[Walmart_shopper]

Netanyahu is trying to make every feel better about new elections by warning that if elections are avoided then the super-bigoted super-settler Bezalel Smotrich would end up Justice Minister.

Uh, thanks Bibi.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Netanyahu is trying to make every feel better about new elections by warning that if elections are avoided then the super-bigoted super-settler Bezalel Smotrich would end up Justice Minister.

Uh, thanks Bibi.

Surely "threatening" that Smotrich will end up Justice Minister rather than "warning"?

[Famous Mortimer]

When will we know for sure there's going to be a new election? I thought they were supposed to vote on the 60 seat minority government today?

[America Needs R'hllor]

When will we know for sure there's going to be a new election? I thought they were supposed to vote on the 60 seat minority government today?

If they don't reach an agreement until midnight. That means... 16 hours, 8 minutes from now.

[Hnv1]

When will we know for sure there's going to be a new election? I thought they were supposed to vote on the 60 seat minority government today?

third hearing for the bill will be tonight, so well before the deadline.

anyhow the deadline doesn't mean anything, the President is going to task someone with the job on 00:01 tonight, and the Knesset can still dissolve itself tomorrow.

[Hnv1]

Well this is beyond ridiculous, Bibi offered Labour to join for the MoD plus 3 other ministries. Completely untenable but that Gabbay fool said he’s considering it.

Now rejected it after all of his MKs opposed him. He’s now officially a political corpse

[Oryxslayer]

Well this is beyond ridiculous, Bibi offered Labour to join for the MoD plus 3 other ministries. Completely untenable but that Gabbay fool said he’s considering it

That would be seppuku for Labour, forming a government with the Haredi parties. Bibi also wouldn't be able to get Hus immunity law. This is just desperation, and there are better people to beg desperation to right now.

EDIT: well that ended quickly

[America Needs R'hllor]

Well this is beyond ridiculous, Bibi offered Labour to join for the MoD plus 3 other ministries. Completely untenable but that Gabbay fool said he’s considering it.

Now rejected it after all of his MKs opposed him. He’s now officially a political corpse

And, let me add, I've heard Ministry of Finance was offered too, as well as Justice for Yachmovich and the Presidency for Amir Peretz, and a promise not to advance anti-SC and anti-union laws I'm not sure who came off as more desperate, but from what I've seen, the narrative has been that it was Bibi thanks to the quick rejection of this deal. Thank god the rest of the MKs are smart.