How do Dem odds in 2020 compare to GOP odds in 2012?

[gerritcole]

Trump GOP won off the backs of old, white people who always vote, if the Democrats turn out young, black/Latino, and unmarried women it's over for him.

You could say this about every election tbf

[Yank2133]

Obama could afford to lose tons of support in 2012 and still win comfortably. Trump barely won to begin with and actually got less votes than his opponent. You do the math.

This.

The only reason Trump is favored to win at the moment is because we don't know who the Democratic nominee will be. But he is a very weak incumbent and it is hilarious how "smart" people still overrate his strength when all evidence points to him being a one-termer.

[junior chįmp]

GOP is finished in 2020

[Reaganfan]

Horrible. They are bleeding white voters. I think if they nominate a minority, a super-liberal, or anyone that can be designated a "coastal elite" (California, Vermont, New York, New Jersey, ect) they will be in a horrible position in the sunbelt and midwest.

I'm hoping for a Harris/Booker California-New Jersey ticket. Or Warren-Booker or something. It'll make Trump and Pence look like saviors in middle America.

[Nyssus]

Well the unemployment rate has already crept up from 3.8% to 4.0%, and that is before the extremely strong consequences of Trump's stupid trade war has had any effect at all. Last time a US president launched a trade war, we got a world wide depression which was the main reason why Hitler got elected and thus resulted in the second world war which gave us holocaust, 70 million people dead and a destruction of major European city after major European city. Luckily Paris was spared at least. Imagine if Paris today was looking like Berlin or some of the many other German cities which were bombed to oblivion during the war.

Point is, Trump will be very lucky if the unemployment rate has only ticked up to 6-7% by the election day in November 2020. Probably it will be closer to 10% unless he stops and reverses his trade war within the next 6-10 months.