Rate Iowa in 2020

[pbrower2a]

It's hard to believe that Iowa could vote more R than Texas in a Presidential election, which it had not done since 1976, but everything must have gone right for Trump and the GOP in 2016. Is that a fluke or a trend?

[pbrower2a]

Those are the categories of electoralvote.com, roughly.

[Mr. Illini]

Because of IA's strong independent streak, it will somewhat correct itself in 2020. However, it will still vote R.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Because of IA's strong independent streak, it will somewhat correct itself in 2020. However, it will still vote R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Weak R, WI, MI and PA, CO, VA and NH are the tipping point states

[TDAS04]

Lean R. 

[Senator Spark]

Weak R. Although it is more elastic than other states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI, Iowa and OH are weak GOP states that can be won with a more charasmatic Candidate other than Clinton

[Peanut]

Tossup with a small R tilt.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Tilt D- Sanders, Biden
Pure Tossup- Merkley, Warner, Klobuchar
Tilt R- Bullock
Leans R- Warren, Kamala Harris, Gillibrand
Likely R- John Hickenlooper, McAulife, Castro
Safe R- Cory Booker, Cuomo

Overall, Leans R

[Progressive Pessimist]

As I always say, it depends on the candidate. I think it's fair to rate it as a tossup though. I know it was more Republican than Texas in 2016, but Iowa is prone to massive swings and is one of the truest swing states in the nation. A Democrat can win it, especially is Trump's tariffs end up having a tangible, negative effect on the state.

[Reformicon]

Barely R. Very elastic state.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Iowa is Tilt R.

[TML]

I'll say tilt to lean R in an average environment. The 2016 result was an aberration (remember, most polls suggested that the Republican margin would be 2-4% instead of 8-10%).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lean/Weak R, closer to Likely than Toss-up. Dumb categories.

[😥]

Tossup/Tilt R

[Zaybay]

Iowa is a weird state. I could honestly see it going by 10 in either direction. Though I see the majority thinks this is lean R, so I will disprove this.

Iowa is elastic. Thats it. Its super elastic. The voters here are swingy. This can be seen in literally every election in Iowa. This is not the first time the state has gone R.

2000-D 48/48
2004-R 49/49
2008-D 53/44
2012-D 51/46
2016-R 51/41

As you can see, the state was rather close in the bush years, and it was Obama winning by a large margin that changed that.
You may point out the fact that Trump won the state by a HUGE margin, 10 points, and thats true. But if we look at it now, its clear that the state was won by lower Dem turnout and swingy voters. The morning consult, which is not the best, I know, pegs the Prez. approval in the state at -7, and this is a high point, with it in December/January at 35%. The state is a rust belt state, a D leaning state that fell in 2016 due to low D turnout and Trump populism.

Need more proof that this is not an R state after one election, well here is the primary totals for both parties going back from 2006(rounded to nearest thousand):
2006
R-73,000
D-149,000
2010
R-227,000
D-no primary
2014
R-no primary
D-61,000
2018
R-93,000
D-177,000

And before you mention how it has two GOP senators and the reps and the legislature, its important to note that these losses occurred in the Obama era, which featured huge losses for Ds due to many factors.

Anyway, I am labeling this a tossup, for it could be anything. It could stay GOP or it could go back to the DEMs, but the way its looking now, Id rather bet on the Dems than the Rs.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

@Zaybay (not going to quote your long post for space but it is good and people should read it)

I agree that people are underrating Iowa's swinginess but I don't think it's a good prior to assume that a state that voted +10 for Trump and +8 for Ernst in its last two Federal elections is more likely to vote D than R. There's very high variance in where it ends up and I think the gov race this Fall will be very informative but until then there isn't a lot of reason other than general variance to assume that a Democrat has anything other than an uphill battle there in 2020.

[IceSpear]

@Zaybay (not going to quote your long post for space but it is good and people should read it)

I agree that people are underrating Iowa's swinginess but I don't think it's a good prior to assume that a state that voted +10 for Trump and +8 for Ernst in its last two Federal elections is more likely to vote D than R. There's very high variance in where it ends up and I think the gov race this Fall will be very informative but until then there isn't a lot of reason other than general variance to assume that a Democrat has anything other than an uphill battle there in 2020.

There's also the fact that despite 2016 being a roughly neutral year in terms of the national vote, Iowa almost voted for Trump on par with Obama's 08 margin, despite that being a perfect storm for the Democrats and McCain essentially triaging the state.

At least lean R.

[ON Progressive]

Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Potentially turn Blue

[Zaybay]

@Zaybay (not going to quote your long post for space but it is good and people should read it)

I agree that people are underrating Iowa's swinginess but I don't think it's a good prior to assume that a state that voted +10 for Trump and +8 for Ernst in its last two Federal elections is more likely to vote D than R. There's very high variance in where it ends up and I think the gov race this Fall will be very informative but until then there isn't a lot of reason other than general variance to assume that a Democrat has anything other than an uphill battle there in 2020.

There's also the fact that despite 2016 being a roughly neutral year in terms of the national vote, Iowa almost voted for Trump on par with Obama's 08 margin, despite that being a perfect storm for the Democrats and McCain essentially triaging the state.

At least lean R.

Whats important to note is that a swing is not uniform. Massachusetts will not swing the same way as ND, for example. The fact that 2016 was a neutral year is a bit misleading because of this. 2016 was neutral not because there was a slight right shift from Obama, there were instead, two shifts that occurred that cancelled each other out. The most pronounced groups that shifted were the rural WWC white, high school white, and suburbanite. The rural WWC and high school white trended R hard, which caused the rust belt to flip and most of central America to become a darker shade of Red, but suburbanites trended D, which is seen in the fact that many states that went against the overall R trend are heavily suburban-Georgia, CA, Texas, MA, etc. The thing is that its clear that the two R trending groups are having a backlash, and moving back D, which suburbanites are only facing a tiny bit. Heres a good map from Daily Kos about this:


As you can see, suburban seats in FL, MA, and WA are shifting back, while seats in the Rust belt, (including a bunch of IA seats) are swinging back hard. This indicates the backlash is quite real and quite pronounced in the areas that vote D but went R in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Its also important to note that the Rust Belt has been hit with anti-D sentiment in the Obama years, and has faced economic problems compared to the Sunbelt. Joni Ernst is rather popular, and ran a great campaign in 2014, along with having help from a national environment of R+6. Trump ran on very populist messages and catered to the Rust Belt with his rhetoric. The Rust Belt went hard right in 2010, electing the likes of Scott Walker, but went back to Obama cuz he was Obama. Without Obama, and with the unpopular Clinton at the helm, they made a choice of the lesser of two evils, which they saw as Trump.

But hindsight is 2020, and its now obvious that the Dems floundered in states after Obama's election, and the Democrats are doing a lot to fix this. The most likely 2020 leaders for the Ds are economically progressive which is, funnily enough, what Trump was considered in the 2016 election. Its highly likely the Rust Belt switches back at our current course, its just a question of how much.

[OneJ]

Tossup with a small R tilt.

[HarrisonL]

I say its lean republican