What is the probability that Beto O'Rourke runs for president in 2020?

[Mr. Morden]

As noted in the Tea Leaves thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303677.msg6523716#msg6523716

CNN reported on Thursday that, despite his public denials, O'Rourke has talked to at least one person in his inner circle about the possibility of running for president.  What is the probability that he will actually run?

[NHI]

50-50

[Progressive Pessimist]

I actually don't think it's as likely as we all want it to be. I'll go with 33%.

[Bidenworth2020]

only shot dems have at winning, run bby

[lfromnj]

I actually don't think it's as likely as we all want it to be. I'll go with 33%.

I think he genuinely is exhausted from his campaign.
He went through ing 250 counties in the 2nd largest state.

[MarkD]

I say 0-20%. After only 3 terms in the House and a failed campaign for the Senate it's not good form to try to run for President. I remember thinking it took a lot of chutzpah for Alan Keyes to run for President after two failed attempts at the Senate. O'Rourke's not quite in the same position as Keyes, but he's close. The thing is, I don't think O'Rourke's got the chutzpah.

[tosk]

if I were his friend i'd tell him no way. if i were his advisor i'd tell him to really look at it. I think he's hearing his advisors but his friends and family will win out. He'd be very effective on the trail though.

[RaphaelDLG]

It'll be tough as hell and he'll have to be all in, but this might be his best shot, honestly.

[Oryxslayer]

Its this or Cornyn. I get the feeling Beto doesn't want to fade into the background like Kander.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think if public demand really persists he’ll do it. That’s how Eisenhower got into the race.

[Florida Man for Crime]

After only 3 terms in the House and a failed campaign for the Senate it's not good form to try to run for President.

As compared to Abraham Lincoln, who only served 1 single term in the House and a failed campaign for the Senate prior to being elected President.

[Grassroots]

25%. He probably doesn't feel like it after losing to punchable face man.

[J. J.]

I actually don't think it's as likely as we all want it to be. I'll go with 33%.

33%, but I doubt that he'd even get the nomination. 

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I can't see a big political future of him, if he doesn't capture his momentum and run for president. He has a higher chance of winning the presidency, than becoming senator of Texas in 2020.

[BlueSwan]

In line with my 180 on O'Rourke, I used to say that it was unlikely, but after the midterms are over, I now consider it very likely. The storyline is not that he lost Texas, which would have been a terrible launching pad for a run, but that he overperformed expectations and "is the guy the democrats are looking for". Even if he wasn't originally planning on running, I think that is a hard urge to resist when you hear pundits and supporters calling you the future of the democratic party and "the only guy who can beat Trump" or whatever people are saying.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I actually don't think it's as likely as we all want it to be. I'll go with 33%.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I do not believe that O'Rourke will run for President.

I do believe that he will be considered for VP, and is a real contender for that slot.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

40-50%.  He shouldn't blow his momentum by running against an entrenched incumbent.  He would in all likelihood fade into obscurity the next time the governorship is up.  2020 is his time.  I hope he sees the writing on the wall.

[SCNCmod]

If he has an interest in ever being President... Maybe Ironically, I think 2020 is his best shot.  I tend to think that the biggest factor in becoming President is Timing (and most often timing that can not be planned for).  I think 2020 is probably when Timing will be at the best match for Beto getting elected or becoming the nominee.   

Its hard to capture magic in a bottle across multiple election periods.