Which will flip first in a Presidential?

[Peanut]

?

[Skill and Chance]

West Virginia or Massachusetts are the most plausible due to elasticity, in a 1936 or 1984 level PV win for either party.

[here2view]

Maybe WV if some guy like Ojeda somehow won the nomination.

[OSR stands with Israel]

WV easily

[Progressive Pessimist]

West Virginia with the right candidate that takes advantage of a massive amount of luck.

[Zaybay]

Alright, so heres my opinion on the states from most least likely to flip, to most likely.

4. MA- Massachusetts should be higher on the list. Its rather elastic, has a sizable white population, and has a history electing moderate Rs for governor and elected Scott Brown in 2010. The problem is that these elections have always occurred in midterm years, not presidential. While MA has been rather elastic over its state affairs, its national perspective has been relatively the same nationally for the past 80 years, only voting for Eisenhower and Reagan. MA can only flip in a landslide election.

3. CA- I debated putting CA as #4, but decided against it. CA is a D stronghold, and seems impossible to crack for Rs. It has multiple urban centers, a large amount of minorities, and even the R citidel of Orange county has fallen. The thing is, however, the fortress that is CA is actually not impregniable. All it needs is a Reagan R. Let me explain. You need a moderate R, one moderate on social issues and fisically conservative, to get the suburbs back. You also need to have a preformence better than 2004 Bush, and get those Asians and Hispanics on your side. Do this, and Volia, the state is now only a tilt/lean D state. All you need is a good victory in the PV score to take its 55 electors.

2. AL- This is an inelastic state, dont get me wrong. The Dems always get 35%, and it seems impossible to get higher than that. Time itself will hand the state to the Ds, due to AA growth, but it is still winable today. Heres how.
1. High AA turnout
2. socially conservative, Economically populist D
3. win some of those ancestral Ds that now vote R
The state is now yours.

1.WV- Seems to be the consensus here, WV would be the first to flip. Its also the easiest to flip of the 4. To win WV, you need a Sanders type, one who is economically populist, but one that also appeals to coal workers, saying you will fight for coal JOBS, and throw the blame on the greedy companies. Finally, get a good victory in the PV, and its yours. The state is just super elastic, and appealing to their economic grievances is an easy way to return the state to the D column.

Thats just my take after a long hiatus from politics.

[morgankingsley]

I'm going to be the minority here and say California. Yes it is right now a democrat stronghold, but honestly less so than the other states listed. I would not be surprised if starting 2020 or 2024, if they start swinging 1-2 percent to the right with each election. I feel like MA and Alabama have one more election or two where their margins can grow. WV is easily at the peak point, but it would take a million elections to turn it democrat.

Plus, are we talking about flipping one time, or flipping for good? We are are talking about just once, maybe Massachusetts depending on who the republican is, but for good, easily California

[RINO Tom]

I mean, none of these are flipping until Trump is long gone from office.  However, in like 20 years or something and trying to imagine all types of scenarios, I'd agree with the majority that WV is the most likely to flip.

[😥]

1.WV
2.MA
3.AL
4.CA

[IceSpear]

I mean, none of these are flipping until Trump is long gone from office.  However, in like 20 years or something and trying to imagine all types of scenarios, I'd agree with the majority that WV is the most likely to flip.

Wishful thinking, Tom?

Anyway, I'd take issue with these poll results, but they all approach 0% possibility anyway, so whatever.