PA-17: Battle of the Congressmen

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So the PA-17 race is likely going to be a battle between Congressmen Lamb and Rothfus. Who do you think will win?

My money is on Lamb. The Pittsburgh suburbs are, again, going to be key here and he racked up huge margins there against Saccone. Also, Rothfus has never been an exciting campaigner. Couple all of that with the national environment and Lamb should win. Even Nate Cohn has said that Lamb is favored in this race.

Pittsburgh suburbs >> Beaver county

[Hindsight was 2020]

Lamb has too big of a base in this map combined with the national environment to not be the favored

[Strudelcutie4427]

Any word on who’s running in PA-(whatever the SW is now)? Better not be Saccone

[Oryxslayer]

Well, Rothfus could still retire - wern't you the guy suggesting it last night? I would be an out of left field move, but Rothfus could want to dodge Lamb. And we are getting rumors of a Costello retirement so it wont totally be strange to see a well funded incumbent duck out this late. But assuming Rothfus stays in with his Million dollar warchest (last I checked) its probably Lambs.

Neither really has incumbency advantage now, and as you say Rothfus isn't exactly the best incumbent. He lost the much more conservative version of PA-17, PA-04 (R+7) in 2010 of all years, and then almost lost the conservative shakeweight in 2012 that was drawn specifically for a R.

[Gass3268]

Any word on who’s running in PA-(whatever the SW is now)? Better not be Saccone

Word is Saccone is planing to file even though he lives in the new Pittsburg based PA-18. PAGOP only has a few days to find someone else to run against him.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Any word on who’s running in PA-(whatever the SW is now)? Better not be Saccone

Unfortunately, Saccone is filing. Even after losing this time, he'll still probably be my congressman fml.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Any word on who’s running in PA-(whatever the SW is now)? Better not be Saccone

Word is Saccone is planing to file even though he lives in the new Pittsburg based PA-18. PAGOP only has a few days to find someone else to run against him.

Just go get like a random dude or something. Saccone had his chance and he blew it. I’ll take Greg the Garbageman (R-PA) over that guy now

[Xing]

Considering that Lamb won in a district more Republican-leaning than the new PA-17, my money would be on him.

[Greedo punched first]

Will Saccone win the Republican primary in the new PA-14?

[Strudelcutie4427]

Any word on who’s running in PA-(whatever the SW is now)? Better not be Saccone

Unfortunately, Saccone is filing. Even after losing this time, he'll still probably be my congressman fml.

You might as well sign up to run. He’s a proven loser. I totally would if I was old enough

[Cactus Jack]

Rothfus is so absolutely screwed. He's lightyears to the right of his new district and Lamb is both a perfect fit and a brutally effective campaigner. If I were Rothfus, I'd be lining up my cushy lobbying job early.

[windjammer]

Well,
According to Miles, Lamb won by 22 points the area that will be in this district (HRC won it by 2).
Rothfus doesn't strike me as a strong incumbent. He only won by 2 in 2012 while Romney was carrying the district by 20 points.
So I guess lean dem is the most acceptable rating. It would be lean rep in a neutral year with an average opponent but considering it is going to be a democratic wave and that Conor Lamb is a strong campaigner.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Well,
According to Miles, Lamb won by 22 points the area that will be in this district (HRC won it by 2).
Rothfus doesn't strike me as a strong incumbent. He only won by 2 in 2012 while Romney was carrying the district by 20 points.
So I guess lean dem is the most acceptable rating. It would be lean rep in a neutral year with an average opponent but considering it is going to be a democratic wave and that Conor Lamb is a strong campaigner.

I agree with you, but in 2012 he narrowly defeated the Democratic incumbent.

[Holmes]

Thinking about it, yeah, Lamb. How much of the new PA-17 is comprised of Allegheny as opposed to a Beaver?

[Devils30]

Lamb will keep Rothfus' numbers down in Beaver if not win it. Then its game over in Allegheny.

[KingSweden]

Any word on who’s running in PA-(whatever the SW is now)? Better not be Saccone

Word is Saccone is planing to file even though he lives in the new Pittsburg based PA-18. PAGOP only has a few days to find someone else to run against him.

Just go get like a random dude or something. Saccone had his chance and he blew it. I’ll take Greg the Garbageman (R-PA) over that guy now

They could probably recruit Kim Ward

[Orser67]

I guess probably Lamb, but I certainly wouldn't write off Rothfus.

[smoltchanov]

I guess probably Lamb, but I certainly wouldn't write off Rothfus.

Exactly my thought too.. Rothfus is substantially stronger then Saccone, but district is substntially more favorable for Democrats.

[Holmes]

http://www.timesonline.com/news/20180314/us-rep-elect-conor-lamb-in-primary-race-to-challenge-rep-keith-rothfus

Lamb seeking the endorsement of the Beaver County Democratic Committee.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lamb will destroy him near 57-43, and maybe even win Beaver.