Did the Doomers create a toxic environment here?

[LimoLiberal]

My predictions and analysis were way closer to being correct than the average anti-Doomer. I was banned for a couple days because I posted that people were stupid to dismiss Trump's strength in Miami-Dade. Here's that post, which was moderated for "trolling":

It's not solely a piece of data from TargetSmart!! I hate TargetSmart, look at my previous posts in this thread ffs!! It's one line in a pretty substantial article by an expert on Florida politics, Marc Caputo, who works for Politico!! I can and will dig up posts from 2018 involving Caputo articles poo-pooing Gillum and Nelson's chances that everyone dismissed as concern-trolling!! I vividly remember him reporting that internal polls showed things far closer than the public polls and everyone calling him a hack!! Scott and DeSantis won!! No, that's no guarantee Trump will win!! That's no guarantee Caputo's tone and analysis will be right this year!! But maybe instead of dismissing his article as "concern-trolling" etc. give him some credence!! At least more than the people in this thread that think any post remotely negative in Florida is trolling!! This is 2016 and 2018 all over again, in how people are treating any prediction or analysis relatively favorable to the Republicans!! It's not necessarily 2016 and 2018 in the election outcome!! Those two elections had very different outcomes!! But I just ask that when you automatically dismiss any R-favorable poll as "junk", any R-favorably analysis of early voting as "concern-trolling" no matter the source, you reflect on your internal biases!! This does not apply to all red avatars, some people are logical!! But it is the truth!!

Here's another post from Oct 29 I made in a thread about Florida that wasn't moderated but was still mocked by several anti-Doomers.

This is a Dem mapper and analyst who knows his stuff about Florida. He does not sound optimistic.

It's incredible how so many Democrats here and in other spaces have just wish-casted away Biden's massive issues with Cubans (and other Hispanic ethnic groups!) in S Florida. I was ridiculed yesterday for suggesting there will be districts in M-D where Biden does 15 points worse than Clinton. Meanwhile, in this thread, you have numerous Florida politicos stating that all internal data has Biden doing not just worse than Clinton, as has been obvious for two years, but worse than Obama in 2012 and Desantis/Scott in 2018.

I really deserve an apology from a lot of people on this forum.

[WD]

My predictions and analysis were way closer to being correct than the average anti-Doomer. I was banned for a couple days because I posted that people were stupid to dismiss Trump's strength in Miami-Dade. Here's that post, which was moderated for "trolling":

It's not solely a piece of data from TargetSmart!! I hate TargetSmart, look at my previous posts in this thread ffs!! It's one line in a pretty substantial article by an expert on Florida politics, Marc Caputo, who works for Politico!! I can and will dig up posts from 2018 involving Caputo articles poo-pooing Gillum and Nelson's chances that everyone dismissed as concern-trolling!! I vividly remember him reporting that internal polls showed things far closer than the public polls and everyone calling him a hack!! Scott and DeSantis won!! No, that's no guarantee Trump will win!! That's no guarantee Caputo's tone and analysis will be right this year!! But maybe instead of dismissing his article as "concern-trolling" etc. give him some credence!! At least more than the people in this thread that think any post remotely negative in Florida is trolling!! This is 2016 and 2018 all over again, in how people are treating any prediction or analysis relatively favorable to the Republicans!! It's not necessarily 2016 and 2018 in the election outcome!! Those two elections had very different outcomes!! But I just ask that when you automatically dismiss any R-favorable poll as "junk", any R-favorably analysis of early voting as "concern-trolling" no matter the source, you reflect on your internal biases!! This does not apply to all red avatars, some people are logical!! But it is the truth!!

Here's another post from Oct 29 I made in a thread about Florida that wasn't moderated but was still mocked by several anti-Doomers.

This is a Dem mapper and analyst who knows his stuff about Florida. He does not sound optimistic.

It's incredible how so many Democrats here and in other spaces have just wish-casted away Biden's massive issues with Cubans (and other Hispanic ethnic groups!) in S Florida. I was ridiculed yesterday for suggesting there will be districts in M-D where Biden does 15 points worse than Clinton. Meanwhile, in this thread, you have numerous Florida politicos stating that all internal data has Biden doing not just worse than Clinton, as has been obvious for two years, but worse than Obama in 2012 and Desantis/Scott in 2018.

I really deserve an apology from a lot of people on this forum.

People thought you were trolling because of the way you posted. Saying “I’m concerned about Flordia, I predict that Trump will narrowly win” is a perfectly fine prediction. Saying stuff like: “This is 2016 all over again!!!! Biden is finished!!!” Comes off as trollish and annoying. Most of your posts we’re sensationalizing and attention seeking, hence why they were moderated.

I think I'm gonna cry

I'm already crying. Have been since the Selzer poll.

Trump's approval rating is surging!!!!

This is 2016 all over again!!!!

I think I'll panic about this poll next.

^Stuff like this isn’t “Analysis and Prediction”, and it gets old after a while. No one owes you an apology.

[LimoLiberal]

My predictions and analysis were way closer to being correct than the average anti-Doomer. I was banned for a couple days because I posted that people were stupid to dismiss Trump's strength in Miami-Dade. Here's that post, which was moderated for "trolling":

It's not solely a piece of data from TargetSmart!! I hate TargetSmart, look at my previous posts in this thread ffs!! It's one line in a pretty substantial article by an expert on Florida politics, Marc Caputo, who works for Politico!! I can and will dig up posts from 2018 involving Caputo articles poo-pooing Gillum and Nelson's chances that everyone dismissed as concern-trolling!! I vividly remember him reporting that internal polls showed things far closer than the public polls and everyone calling him a hack!! Scott and DeSantis won!! No, that's no guarantee Trump will win!! That's no guarantee Caputo's tone and analysis will be right this year!! But maybe instead of dismissing his article as "concern-trolling" etc. give him some credence!! At least more than the people in this thread that think any post remotely negative in Florida is trolling!! This is 2016 and 2018 all over again, in how people are treating any prediction or analysis relatively favorable to the Republicans!! It's not necessarily 2016 and 2018 in the election outcome!! Those two elections had very different outcomes!! But I just ask that when you automatically dismiss any R-favorable poll as "junk", any R-favorably analysis of early voting as "concern-trolling" no matter the source, you reflect on your internal biases!! This does not apply to all red avatars, some people are logical!! But it is the truth!!

Here's another post from Oct 29 I made in a thread about Florida that wasn't moderated but was still mocked by several anti-Doomers.

This is a Dem mapper and analyst who knows his stuff about Florida. He does not sound optimistic.

It's incredible how so many Democrats here and in other spaces have just wish-casted away Biden's massive issues with Cubans (and other Hispanic ethnic groups!) in S Florida. I was ridiculed yesterday for suggesting there will be districts in M-D where Biden does 15 points worse than Clinton. Meanwhile, in this thread, you have numerous Florida politicos stating that all internal data has Biden doing not just worse than Clinton, as has been obvious for two years, but worse than Obama in 2012 and Desantis/Scott in 2018.

I really deserve an apology from a lot of people on this forum.

People thought you were trolling because of the way you posted. Saying “I’m concerned about Flordia, I predict that Trump will narrowly win” is a perfectly fine prediction. Saying stuff like: “This is 2016 all over again!!!! Biden is finished!!!” Comes off as trollish and annoying. Most of your posts we’re sensationalizing and attention seeking, hence why they were moderated.

I think I'm gonna cry

I'm already crying. Have been since the Selzer poll.

Trump's approval rating is surging!!!!

This is 2016 all over again!!!!

I think I'll panic about this poll next.

^Stuff like this isn’t “Analysis and Prediction”, and it gets old after a while. No one owes you an apology.

1. The second post is from a Doomers megathread. You cannot cast aspersion on anything I posted there.
2. The first and third posts were from threads in the polling subforum. Other posts in those threads include a Michael Scott picture where he says "No, I don't like that" and a singular "Biden is finished" (sarcastically).

Tons of those polling threads contained low-effort posts from me and other posters. I posted images of Firehouse subs, people would post youtube videos or just "lol" or "lmao" in response to junkish polls. Clearly trollish and annoying by your standards. Should those posters be banned? Of course not. The issue with the posts I made was that they suggested that Donald Trump could win, which people found blasphemous, and even more blasphemous coming from someone who "posed as a Democrat" (never mind I actually posted a picture of my ballot showing my vote for Joe Biden, I was still a Trump supporter to many people here).

Tons of behaviors that are clearly trollish and annoying are tolerated on Atlas. Tons. Empty quoting, people repeating the same slogans over and over again, tired gifs and pictures and videos and memes. No one seriously thinks those people should be banned.

Also, Let. Me. Be. Clear.

1. Saying "It's 2016 all over again" was objectively a more accurate prediction than the vast majority of red avatars.
2. You call saying "Biden is Finished" trollish and annoying. There are hundreds if not thousands of posts on this forum expressing the idea that Trump is finished from 2015-now, and only the ones after November 3rd are really accurate. Should those people be banned for saying the same thing so many times with such certainty? Did they create a toxic environment?

[WD]

My predictions and analysis were way closer to being correct than the average anti-Doomer. I was banned for a couple days because I posted that people were stupid to dismiss Trump's strength in Miami-Dade. Here's that post, which was moderated for "trolling":

It's not solely a piece of data from TargetSmart!! I hate TargetSmart, look at my previous posts in this thread ffs!! It's one line in a pretty substantial article by an expert on Florida politics, Marc Caputo, who works for Politico!! I can and will dig up posts from 2018 involving Caputo articles poo-pooing Gillum and Nelson's chances that everyone dismissed as concern-trolling!! I vividly remember him reporting that internal polls showed things far closer than the public polls and everyone calling him a hack!! Scott and DeSantis won!! No, that's no guarantee Trump will win!! That's no guarantee Caputo's tone and analysis will be right this year!! But maybe instead of dismissing his article as "concern-trolling" etc. give him some credence!! At least more than the people in this thread that think any post remotely negative in Florida is trolling!! This is 2016 and 2018 all over again, in how people are treating any prediction or analysis relatively favorable to the Republicans!! It's not necessarily 2016 and 2018 in the election outcome!! Those two elections had very different outcomes!! But I just ask that when you automatically dismiss any R-favorable poll as "junk", any R-favorably analysis of early voting as "concern-trolling" no matter the source, you reflect on your internal biases!! This does not apply to all red avatars, some people are logical!! But it is the truth!!

Here's another post from Oct 29 I made in a thread about Florida that wasn't moderated but was still mocked by several anti-Doomers.

This is a Dem mapper and analyst who knows his stuff about Florida. He does not sound optimistic.

It's incredible how so many Democrats here and in other spaces have just wish-casted away Biden's massive issues with Cubans (and other Hispanic ethnic groups!) in S Florida. I was ridiculed yesterday for suggesting there will be districts in M-D where Biden does 15 points worse than Clinton. Meanwhile, in this thread, you have numerous Florida politicos stating that all internal data has Biden doing not just worse than Clinton, as has been obvious for two years, but worse than Obama in 2012 and Desantis/Scott in 2018.

I really deserve an apology from a lot of people on this forum.

People thought you were trolling because of the way you posted. Saying “I’m concerned about Flordia, I predict that Trump will narrowly win” is a perfectly fine prediction. Saying stuff like: “This is 2016 all over again!!!! Biden is finished!!!” Comes off as trollish and annoying. Most of your posts we’re sensationalizing and attention seeking, hence why they were moderated.

I think I'm gonna cry

I'm already crying. Have been since the Selzer poll.

Trump's approval rating is surging!!!!

This is 2016 all over again!!!!

I think I'll panic about this poll next.

^Stuff like this isn’t “Analysis and Prediction”, and it gets old after a while. No one owes you an apology.

1. The second post is from a Doomers megathread. You cannot cast aspersion on anything I posted there.
2. The first and third posts were from threads in the polling subforum. Other posts in those threads include a Michael Scott picture where he says "No, I don't like that" and a singular "Biden is finished" (sarcastically).

Tons of those polling threads contained low-effort posts from me and other posters. I posted images of Firehouse subs, people would post youtube videos or just "lol" or "lmao" in response to junkish polls. Clearly trollish and annoying by your standards. Should those posters be banned? Of course not. The issue with the posts I made was that they suggested that Donald Trump could win, which people found blasphemous, and even more blasphemous coming from someone who "posed as a Democrat" (never mind I actually posted a picture of my ballot showing my vote for Joe Biden, I was still a Trump supporter to many people here).

Tons of behaviors that are clearly trollish and annoying are tolerated on Atlas. Tons. Empty quoting, people repeating the same slogans over and over again, tired gifs and pictures and videos and memes. No one seriously thinks those people should be banned.

Also, Let. Me. Be. Clear.

1. Saying "It's 2016 all over again" was objectively a more accurate prediction than the vast majority of red avatars.
2. You call saying "Biden is Finished" trollish and annoying. There are hundreds if not thousands of posts on this forum expressing the idea that Trump is finished from 2015-now, and only the ones after November 3rd are really accurate. Should those people be banned for saying the same thing so many times with such certainty? Did they create a toxic environment?

Sure, you’re correct, it was. It’s easy to claim afterwards that you were correct, but before the election all of the polling data we had pointed to this election being absolutely nothing like 2016 and looked like a substantial Biden win of 7-9 points, so statements like that come off as clearly trollish and farcical. A big difference from looking at Biden+8 poll, after Biden+8 and concluding that Trump is finished.

Tons of those polling threads contained low-effort posts from me and other posters. I posted images of Firehouse subs, people would post youtube videos or just "lol" or "lmao" in response to junkish polls. Clearly trollish and annoying by your standards. Should those posters be banned? Of course not. The issue with the posts I made was that they suggested that Donald Trump could win, which people found blasphemous, and even more blasphemous coming from someone who "posed as a Democrat" (never mind I actually posted a picture of my ballot showing my vote for Joe Biden, I was still a Trump supporter to many people here).

Joking around in response to low quality polls is certainly not a ban able offense, and going into polling threads and saying, with minimal evidence, and saying “Biden is finished” or “I’m going to cry” isn’t a bannable offense, (and for the record, I never thought you should be banned) but it certainly warranted the annoyance of other posters. If you thought Trump would win, that’s perfectly fine, but don’t preface it with hyperbole and facetious remarks like you did

[NOVA Green]

no, it was already kind of toxic and I haven't noticed a shift since lately


Also, Doomers are freaking hilarious.  I love to see defeatism in my political enemy.  Hopefully they'll burn out and move onto more productive pursuits.  Like pottery.

Thought you voted Biden 2020?   

[NOVA Green]

Term "Doomers" is so Atlas 2020 GE PRES....

Actually both DEM & PUB "Doomers" helped create a counter-narrative which ultimately proved to be a hybrid model, which was relatively accurate once the actual GE data was leveled out in various Swing States for US-PRES, combined with US-SEN and US-REP numbers.

Don't believe "Doomers" created a Toxic Environment on Atlas, although granted there were various threads that got consistently derailed by a few individual contributors ("Doomsters").... Not cool, despite their opinions and predictions.

Michael Moore would be considered a "Doomer", and although Biden won MI it wasn't by anything close to the massive margins which polling was predicting.

[dead0man]

no, it was already kind of toxic and I haven't noticed a shift since lately


Also, Doomers are freaking hilarious.  I love to see defeatism in my political enemy.  Hopefully they'll burn out and move onto more productive pursuits.  Like pottery.

Thought you voted Biden 2020?   

I was if NE-2 was going to be close.  It wasn't, so I didn't.  My soul remains pure.  (and I've still never voted for a winning President.....0-10)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So here's an example. Note the timestamp:

Trump has won.

Not yet. I still think Biden is a narrow favorite, but a Trump victory would not surprise me at all at this point.

No, he has definitely won.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's also worth pointing out the Doomers predicted many things pre-election that supposedly would impact the results that were not correct.

For example take the postal service slowdown. That started months before the election, was largely countered, and the Democrats prepped for it and it ended up having little impact. And this is exactly what me and others said would occur when it started hitting the news, and the Doomers just brushed this aside and argued that no one would notice or pay attention and all Democrats would just mail in their ballots the last week and most would end up not counted. They were wrong.

And they also said the in-person vote would be heavily suppressed too, police would be arresting random people in line in inner city precincts, white supremacist and militias would block polling places, Trump would have "poll watchers" and federal agents tampering with all sorts of key precincts in swing states...none of that occurred. Election Day was pretty uneventful.

And then there was Kanye West being a spoiler to which I can only say: LOL.

[Calthrina950]

So here's an example. Note the timestamp:

Trump has won.

Not yet. I still think Biden is a narrow favorite, but a Trump victory would not surprise me at all at this point.

No, he has definitely won.

GoTfan was certainly one of the most pessimistic posters on here, and someone whose viewpoints could hardly be moved. But then again, that's true of the majority of people. Most people have their minds made up on the issues, and once they have become fixed, are very difficult to persuade. Nevertheless, I think that many of the doomers had good intentions. They were not people who wanted Trump to win, but they were concerned that he could, and given how close the election ended up being, their fears turned out to have some substance to them. If anything, I think we should be more mindful of those people who were too overconfident about Biden, and about Democratic fortunes in general, and we should make an effort to take a more systematic look at trends and polls in the future. I've certainly been making the effort to do so.

[Figueira]

It's also worth pointing out the Doomers predicted many things pre-election that supposedly would impact the results that were not correct.

For example take the postal service slowdown. That started months before the election, was largely countered, and the Democrats prepped for it and it ended up having little impact. And this is exactly what me and others said would occur when it started hitting the news, and the Doomers just brushed this aside and argued that no one would notice or pay attention and all Democrats would just mail in their ballots the last week and most would end up not counted. They were wrong.

And they also said the in-person vote would be heavily suppressed too, police would be arresting random people in line in inner city precincts, white supremacist and militias would block polling places, Trump would have "poll watchers" and federal agents tampering with all sorts of key precincts in swing states...none of that occurred. Election Day was pretty uneventful.

And then there was Kanye West being a spoiler to which I can only say: LOL.

I think we also need to step back and realize that not everything has to be about making correct predictions. If you're predicting horrible events that turn out to be true, is that really something you want to be gloating about? I think it's healthy to maintain an extremely cautious optimism rather than incessantly predict that everything will go wrong and then act smug when things do go wrong. If I had gone into 2020 believing that Trump was guaranteed to win re-election, I would have been depressed all year, and I wouldn't have made any phone calls for Biden. It's one thing to emotionally prepare yourself for the possibility of failure, but it's another to go through life constantly mourning an impending disaster that may or may not happen.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's also worth pointing out the Doomers predicted many things pre-election that supposedly would impact the results that were not correct.

For example take the postal service slowdown. That started months before the election, was largely countered, and the Democrats prepped for it and it ended up having little impact. And this is exactly what me and others said would occur when it started hitting the news, and the Doomers just brushed this aside and argued that no one would notice or pay attention and all Democrats would just mail in their ballots the last week and most would end up not counted. They were wrong.

And they also said the in-person vote would be heavily suppressed too, police would be arresting random people in line in inner city precincts, white supremacist and militias would block polling places, Trump would have "poll watchers" and federal agents tampering with all sorts of key precincts in swing states...none of that occurred. Election Day was pretty uneventful.

And then there was Kanye West being a spoiler to which I can only say: LOL.

I think we also need to step back and realize that not everything has to be about making correct predictions. If you're predicting horrible events that turn out to be true, is that really something you want to be gloating about? I think it's healthy to maintain an extremely cautious optimism rather than incessantly predict that everything will go wrong and then act smug when things do go wrong. If I had gone into 2020 believing that Trump was guaranteed to win re-election, I would have been depressed all year, and I wouldn't have made any phone calls for Biden. It's one thing to emotionally prepare yourself for the possibility of failure, but it's another to go through life constantly mourning an impending disaster that may or may not happen.

Also a good example of why dooming is counterproductive. I mean concern trolling by people claiming to support one side but really being undercover agents of the other side trying to dampen enthusiasm is something that's been a thing since the Internet existed.

[Chips]

The Doomers were literally 1% away from being right.

This, but I cannot exactly deny it definitely caused a lot of consequences for the community here.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don’t think they helped but threads like this don’t help either

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

More insane post-election dooming!

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=419536.0

In this case based on a false and laughable premise: That Biden's Cabinet appointees will resign the House before Biden is sworn in.