What is more likely in 2020?

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Remember, Trump lost Maine by a smaller margin than HRC lost AZ. Maine also had a substantially larger trend towards Trump than AZ had a trend towards HRC. So which is more likely in 2020?

[Xing]

I'm still not convinced Maine is a true swing state, any more than Montana was after 2008. I could be wrong, but Maine definitely seems like a state where Trump's numbers will come back down to Earth, especially if he faces a Democrat who's a better fit for the state than Clinton. ME-02 might still very well go his way, but I'm definitely guessing he won't win it by 10%, and turnout won't be as high. For now, I think Maine being close was somewhat of a fluke. So option 2, even though Arizona still won't be easy for Democrats to win, and it would start out as at least Lean R.

[mgop]

dems will not flip az any time soon. phoenix is the largest republican city in country, and voters rather elect disgusting mccain for senate again than democrat candidate.

[DPKdebator]

Neither one is safe in 2020 considering the circumstances, but I see Maine going Republican as more likely. 5% of the state voted Libertarian, and if Trump performs in the 1st CD (a win there is doubtful, though, since it's a lot like a North Massachusetts in many ways) like how Bush did in 2000 while keeping the 10% margin in the 2nd CD, he would win.