Who wins?- November 2016

[Ljube]

The market proxy I use for inverse Trump (meaning the lower the better for Trump), which is the US dollar index adjusted MXN (Mexican Peso) is dropping like a rock today.  It is down 2.9% from when the FBI email announcement came out.  It is down 2.0% from 7am when the ABC poll came out.  It seems it was the ABC poll showing Trump actually ahead that started this latest market panic.

LOL! Self reinforcing death spiral.

[Xing]

Hillary, and I really don't think it's going to be that close.

[Maxwell]

the most annoying thing about this election is that when people aren't constantly reminded of how awful he is, Trump closes the gap in the polls fast.

I were in charge of things, if Trump somehow managed to win, I would re-schedule a vote in a month, and air all of the presidential debates on all the television networks and make it the only videos on youtube for that month, because those debates were pretty much disqualifying.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

My head says Hillary, my heart says Trump.

Its either landslide Clinton or safe Clinton or squeaker Clinton or squeaker Trump. No idea

[Old Man Willow]

LOL landslide Clinton. Meth is a hell of a drug.

[ag]

I do not know. But the very idea that most white American males have joined a gigantic murder-suicide pact and are hell-bent no destroying human civilisation as we know it scares me to death. Whatever the outcome of this election, we will have to live with this knowledge now. Of course, if Trump wins, we will not have too long to live, anyway.

[Devout Centrist]

Hillary, and I really don't think it's going to be that close.

^

A week ago, people were talking about a landslide. A week can change so much.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm still confident that this will be the map:

This.

[Ljube]

the most annoying thing about this election is that when people aren't constantly reminded of how awful he is, Trump closes the gap in the polls fast.

I were in charge of things, if Trump somehow managed to win, I would re-schedule a vote in a month, and air all of the presidential debates on all the television networks and make it the only videos on youtube for that month, because those debates were pretty much disqualifying.

LOL! Luckily for us, you are not in charge of things.

And neither will Crooked Hillary be, who has the same disdain for institutions, the rule of law and democracy.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Well folks....it's almost over. I admit I'll miss Election season. All the bedwetting and stuff.

It's not over until the new President-elect is sworn in. If we ever get that far.

Herr Pussygroper is not going to stop until he's been staked, decapitated, and had his mouth stuffed with guacamole.

Post-election we're going to see lawsuits in Colorado, Pennsylvania and likely Florida and other states the rotten scum doesn't win. (States where he does win will be tweeted about and otherwise ignored.) Laws the Trumpshirts don't like will be ignored, there will be domestic terrorism, and probably attempts to intimidate or otherwise interfere with the Electoral College. Look for Pussygrabber and his cult to make up novel reasons why he "really" won, and suddenly discover things they don't like about the election process.

And even when/if President Clinton is sworn in, the deplorable cult isn't going away. They'll keep up with the bigotry, anti-intellectualism, and fascism. The GOP will have an internal civil war, in between refusing to do their jobs to the detriment of the country.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I was saying that this does remind me a lot of 2012, Romney doing well in the trackers (leading in all of them), but not getting correlating support in the state polls. People freaking out, talking about EV/PV splits. Funny enough only one tracker picked up the surge in to Obama in the last 2-3 days.

There were no state polls. Absence of state polling ≠ absence of movement. I tell you it each time Trump's starts to surge in nationall polls. Each time you don't believe. Here we go again.

Sigh...

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm dreading the release of more polls in CO, WI, NH, PA, and VA.  Those will confirm or deny whether Clinton is in trouble or she has it wrapped up.

In the absence of that data, I see the following:

Worst case scenario (for Clinton)
Trump continues to surge in polls, pulling even with Clinton.  Thanks to early voting, Clinton wins, but we will be sweating out results in Colorado, Wisconsin, and possibly Nevada to know for sure.  Clinton wins the popular vote 48% to 47%.

Most probable:
Clinton takes North Carolina and Florida, which might take a long time to call, but she won't need them.  She gets past 270 without much drama.  The popular vote is 49% to 46%.

Best case scenario:
The "Halloween swoon" ends, we see major rebounds in her poll numbers by this weekend.  She wins her firewall states easily, and NC and FL (though they may take a while to call) and OH, IA, and AZ are the nail-biters.  Clinton wins a popular majority, 50% to 45%.

[oeoyeleye]

Hillary: Obama 2012, minus OH and IA, plus NC

[IceSpear]

Hillary.

PA, MI, WI, CO and VA are not voting for Trump.

The only way in which Trump wins (270-268) is if PA, MI, WI, CO and VA are voting for Hillary, but Trump somehow wins NH, ME-02, NV, NC, FL. Plus IA, OH, GA, AZ and UT of course.

LOL, Tender being more optimistic than some others.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I'm dreading the release of more polls in CO, WI, NH, PA, and VA.  Those will confirm or deny whether Clinton is in trouble or she has it wrapped up.

In the absence of that data, I see the following:

Worst case scenario (for Clinton)
Trump continues to surge in polls, pulling even with Clinton.  Thanks to early voting, Clinton wins, but we will be sweating out results in Colorado, Wisconsin, and possibly Nevada to know for sure.  Clinton wins the popular vote 48% to 47%.

Most probable:
Clinton takes North Carolina and Florida, which might take a long time to call, but she won't need them.  She gets past 270 without much drama.  The popular vote is 49% to 46%.

Best case scenario:
The "Halloween swoon" ends, we see major rebounds in her poll numbers by this weekend.  She wins her firewall states easily, and NC and FL (though they may take a while to call) and OH, IA, and AZ are the nail-biters.  Clinton wins a popular majority, 50% to 45%.

I have a gut feeling Hillary's numbers will improve this weekend.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

My head says Hillary, my heart says Trump.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I was saying that this does remind me a lot of 2012, Romney doing well in the trackers (leading in all of them), but not getting correlating support in the state polls. People freaking out, talking about EV/PV splits. Funny enough only one tracker picked up the surge in to Obama in the last 2-3 days.

There were no state polls. Absence of state polling ≠ absence of movement. I tell you it each time Trump's starts to surge in nationall polls. Each time you don't believe. Here we go again.

Sigh...

Nate Silver agrees with me (or I with him)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/

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[Terry the Fat Shark]

Hillary wins the PV by 2-3 points, Trump wins the EV and the election.

omg

[Sir Mohamed]

Hillary wins the PV by 2-3 points, Trump wins the EV and the election.

omg

LOL, I remember laughing at the original post before the election.

[Horus]

Hillary wins the PV by 2-3 points, Trump wins the EV and the election.

omg

LOL, I remember laughing at the original post before the election.

Many people were, I was called stupid, and I really, really hoped I ended up looking stupid. This prediction was based 100% on gut feelings, social media comments and the charisma factor. Not polling. My final map wasn't too off, although I didn't think Hillary would get decimated in the midwest quite as badly as she did.