Who wins Utah?

[eric82oslo]

Hopefully there will be enough Clinton voters in Utah that realize the race is between Trump and McMullin, and vote McMullin accordingly knowing it's the only way to block Trump in the state.

McMullin and Clinton are polling about dead even in Utah, so that makes no sense.

For the sake of democracy. Everyone agrees that Hillary is an extremely centrist Democrat and throughout my life I've hardly ever seen any Republican with a more centrist agenda than McMullin. So basically they're more or less running on the same agenda. Everyone also knows that it's less than a 3% chance that Clinton has any chance to win Utah at all, while at the same time it's at least a 42% chance that McMullin might actually win it this time around. I'm pretty confident that these are the odds, and odds are to a large extent what I do. I'm a maths nerd deluxe sadly. So what's better. Making sure Trump will win the state? Or offer an alternative?

Yeah, uh, I'm extremely cynical about HRC, but you need to put down the crack pipe.

Evan McMullin is a puppet of republican financiers and economically speaking is not remotely a centrist.  There's a massive amount of daylight between him and HRC, not least of all because she is a Democrat and subject to pressure from a radically different coalition than he is.

Okey, I personally think you should be banned if you - as a Democrat (and only then) is actually saying that you rather prefer the single most fascist human being who's ever walked on this very earth since Hitler (this is pretty personal to me actually) than a perfectly decent mormon guy who's lived in a lot of different countries throughout his life (just like I've done myself) and just want to make sure that the very best is offered to this world, always.

My objection wasn't to your prescription for strategic voting for McMullin as the lesser of two evils (although I think that that's dumb) but rather for your characterization that he's remotely close to Clinton on the issues.

Yeah, you're very right actually. I only know McMullin very superficially. My support for him is very simple in fact: Not only do I know for a fact that fascist Trump will destroy everything about the USA as we currently know it, he will also destroy the entire world as we know it and that has an extremely high chance of ending in atomic war in the end, which would wipe out every single trace of human thought that has ever existed.

[Eraserhead]

Trump.

What's confusing to you about this prediction?

1) Third party candidates tend to perform worse on election day than they do in the polls.

2) Trump is still at least slightly ahead in most of the polling anyway.

McMullin could win, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[politicallefty]

I'm leaning towards thinking McMullin. I'd say the current odds are something like 45-40-15 McMullin-Trump-Clinton. I really hope Hillary can win Utah along with Arizona. I'd like to see the West Coast and the Four Corners all one colour.