Who will win Fort Bend County, TX?

[ElectionsGuy]

Wiki

This county is a classic case of a traditionally Republican suburban county trending Democratic, much like Orange County. Its historically been much more Republican than the state after its population exploded starting in the 70's. It hasn't voted Democratic since Johnson's 64 landslide, it voted for Ford by 21 points despite Carter winning the state by 4, and voted for Bush/Dole by 12/13 despite winning the state by 3/5 (respective). But this county is super diverse, probably one of the most in the country: 35% white, 24% Hispanic, 21% black, 19% Asian (!). With Houston bleeding into this county and its explosion of population, it has seen a massive democratic trend. It nearly voted Obama in '08, at 50.9-48.6 McCain, but didn't really trend in 2012 and voted 53-47 Romney.

Seems like a perfect county to flip to Clinton, especially with the education levels (41% have a bachelor's degree or more).

[KingSweden]

I still think suburban Houston is too Republican to flip.

[Kingpoleon]

Trump. Cruz won here by eight while winning the state by fifteen. As long as Trump wins Texas by nine or more, this county will vote for him.

[Xing]

It'll probably still be a narrow Trump win, unless TX really does end up in the single digits.

[Indy Texas]

Trump winning with 2008 numbers seems most likely. If Johnson somehow overperforms, maybe Clinton would win with a plurality.

Of the two big suburban Houston counties (Montgomery and Fort Bend), Fort Bend is moving in the direction of most non-Southern suburbs (becoming more culturally diverse and well-educated) and Montgomery is moving in the direction of most Southern suburbs (mostly white, often with population growth coming from people moving from other parts of the South or who have been priced out of a lot of Houston neighborhoods lately, with a small smattering of poor Hispanics in the rural areas creating tension/resentment in the more downscale white neighborhoods).

The Asian population is growing really fast in Fort Bend, and if the GOP continues to alienate them with their race-baiting, anti-intellectualism and Christian chauvinism, it could be the next county to flip. Harris County is probably no longer winnable for Republicans unless there's a Reagan '84 scenario.

[ElectionsGuy]

Harris County is probably no longer winnable for Republicans unless there's a Reagan '84 scenario.

Obama only won it by 0.1% last time. How is it no longer winnable?

[Indy Texas]

Harris County is probably no longer winnable for Republicans unless there's a Reagan '84 scenario.

Obama only won it by 0.1% last time. How is it no longer winnable?

Demographic trends. Dallas County went through a couple of presidential cycles where it was very close and now it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Democrat will carry it. Same story with Harris.