Pennsylvania, simply because it has more electoral votes, and is theoretically more favorable for Trump than Virginia (though I'm not sure I buy PA being fertile Trump territory.)
With PA, Clinton would need any of three most likely tipping point states: FL, OH or VA.
Those three are not all exactly equal, but one could pretend that they are all 50% Clinton odds. Meaning a
1/8 of a chance that Trump wins all three and (with IA, CO or both - by no means certain)
the election. (or long shots NV or NH)
Perhaps all pointless speculation based on the 2012 map and this election could be less predictable than that.
My math is not that good, but can anyone come up with a better analysis to what Trump's odds of winning would be, should this be a "paper thin" election? Or is such a scenario not likely in the first place?
Poll
