Are we overdue for a presidential landslide (double-digit win) in 2016?

[Virginiá]

How much is that the GOP primary effect?       I believe that a disciplined Trump GE campagain could really challenge Hillary.  Key word is disciplined campagain by trump.  He has that superstar recognition going for him something Hillary has issues with (see 2008).   No question  Trump has a steep hill to climb with the MSM going hard for Clintion.

One of the issues lately with their primaries is that their primary voters are very out of step with the general electorate. The things they want and thus push the candidates to adopt hurt their standing in the general election.

Yes, he has wide recognition - But it's not really a good image, otherwise he wouldn't have sky-high unfavorables. Maybe he can give her a run for her money, but to win he will have to win back a lot of voters he has pissed off deeply, and that will not be easy. It may not be possible at all for a lot of groups of people. His Hispanic problem is unfixable, he will do very poorly with African Americans as well. His only path is to do well with white voters, and he can't boost his margins very much without wooing white Millennials, who happen to despise him. He can't win the election acting like he has. He'll have to change drastically and not slip, which I personally doubt he can do.

I'm not saying it's going to happen for sure, like some delusional Trumpkins are guaranteeing.  However, I am trying to make the point that it's not as impossible or insurmountable as Trump's detractors are asserting.

Fair enough. I suppose it's technically possible, but the odds are stacked heavily against him. He executed a brilliant primary strategy, but the downside is that strategy made him toxic for the general electorate. He has to fix his image significantly to have a chance, and it's hard to see Mr. Trump pulling that off. I really do not think he has the temperament or personal discipline to pull it off.

(also sorry if I came off as insulting or what have you, if I did, I certainly didn't mean to be)

[catographer]

It may only take a landslide double-digit loss for the GOP to get its act together.

[DS0816]

People talk about there being periods of heightened partisanship and polarization throughout American history, but in presidential elections and since 1828...the only comparable example of so many consecutive elections being relatively close as they have from 1988-2012 is 1876-1900. It actually is worse than the modern era when you look at a couple of variables there.

It seems that every time we have had 2 or 3 relatively close elections, we have entered a period of realignments and/or double-digit blow-outs that can swing wildly in both directions before settling again. Obviously there are especially unique dynamics that are responsible for some individual instances.

However, if 2016 resembles recent elections, then this will become the longest period in American history in which no president by won by more than 10 points. Is our country now irreversibly broken with respect to polarization or are we close to one party getting a major ass-whooping in a presidential election?

Margin of Victory, 1828-2012:

It's worth noting below that some of these margins are caused by there being 3 or more candidates in the race who all performed respectably by today's standards, but nevertheless, one could still ask why such a scenario isn't manifesting today and/or will it soon (and therefore fuel a nominal blow-out).

Yes.

@ https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=222186.msg4783698#msg4783698

[Orser67]

Historically, yes. But I think that we're in a new era, in which partisan affiliation and ideological sorting is deeper than even the late 1800s. I think that if 2008 wasn't a landslide (given the incredibly unpopular president, the financial conditions, and the superior campaign run by Obama), then we may not see a landslide for a long time...unless of course a deeply flawed candidate is nominated.

[Virginiá]

Historically, yes. But I think that we're in a new era, in which partisan affiliation and ideological sorting is deeper than even the late 1800s. I think that if 2008 wasn't a landslide (given the incredibly unpopular president, the financial conditions, and the superior campaign run by Obama), then we may not see a landslide for a long time...unless of course a deeply flawed candidate is nominated.

(i did get your implication)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

There's no pattern at all, but I can't see Donald Trump coming anywhere near Hillary Clinton.

So while we're not "due" for anything, we could end up with this:

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

To be fair, Clinton was close to achieve a double-digit win in 1996, but Dole's late semi-surge prevented this (or, as some argue, Perot's presence).

[pbrower2a]

Look at the 2008 Presidential election. 

32
31
28
25
22
22
20
19
16
15
15
15

Those are highest eleven margins of LOSS for the ultimate winner of that election.

Now try his highest margins of victory

92
45
37
28
27
26
25
25
25
24
22

Barack Obama was winning like Reagan in some states and losing like Mondale in others.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Yes, but sadly it is much more likely for the Republican side this time around.

Awful.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, but sadly it is much more likely for the Republican side this time around.

Awful.

Someone's salty.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Yes, but sadly it is much more likely for the Republican side this time around.

Awful.

Someone's salty.

Salty?  If I were salty I'd be rooting for The Donald.  I obviously don't want The Trump.  Might as well start digging the bomb shelter now if it is him.  But it doesn't look that way.  He's got that mo.  And America is concerned with Hillary Clinton.   Deeply concerned.  It's his to lose and he doesn't lose much, it would seem.

We are doomed.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Yes, but sadly it is much more likely for the Republican side this time around.

Awful.

Someone's salty.

He's not being serious. His latest prediction shows Clinton winning UT and TX.

It's either a hack or a sock TNvolunteer.  My heart sings true of our impending doom.