Scenario: Donald Trump beats Rubio by 2% in NH

[Matty]

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[Coolface Sock #42069]

Rubio wins South Carolina by 10% after everyone to his left drops out and endorses him, wins a tough contest with Trump in Nevada, and coasts to the nomination.

Trump needs a New Hampshire blowout to continue to look viable.

[Mike Thick]

I think this would be bad for Trump, but whether it's dooming depends on how he's doing in the South by NH. If it's a tight race, Cruz and Rubio would probably drain supporters from him and essentially doom his candidacy by making the map unfavorable to him. If he maintains his margins there between now and then or only slightly diminishes, which is possible because Trump, he could remain viable, but South Carolina would be an absolute must-win.

[Vosem]

Erm, neither. Trump's bid would not be over after a victory (in fact, one that could well put him in an overall delegate lead), but underperforming like this would not be useful momentum for South Carolina.

[TDAS04]

Trump would still be alive, but it would be a serious underperformance, and I think Rubio would win South Carolina.

[Averroës Nix]

I'm pretty confident that Rubio will be held to the same standard as he was in Iowa: Anything better than 15% and 3rd place will induce a second round of RUBIO SURGING stories.

[pikachu]

If the polls show him losing in NH, then it looks good. If polls show him winning NH by 10, it looks bad. Going back to 2008, Clinton still looked good coming out of NH with a 2% win, even though she had substantial leads in NH polls until Iowa, because the one week of Obama leading changed expectations. I can see that happening here.

[Clark Kent]

Rubio wins South Carolina by 10% after everyone to his left drops out and endorses him

Um...that includes Trump.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Rubio wins South Carolina by 10% after everyone to his left drops out and endorses him

Um...that includes Trump.

Oops, yeah, everyone to his left except Trump. I don't know what I was thinking.

[Devils30]

Trump will get new life if he wins NH. Once he's reported as the "winner", he will get the nonstop media attention and be strong going into SC.

[IceSpear]

I'm pretty confident that Rubio will be held to the same standard as he was in Iowa: Anything better than 15% and 3rd place will induce a second round of RUBIO SURGING stories.

Yup, exactly. The media has set up a "Rubio wins!" narrative for anything short of total implosion.

[Xing]

A lot depends on how well Cruz does. If he gets a decently close third, he could make things rough for Rubio, since he's now probably favored to win SC. If Cruz is a distant third, though, Rubio will be in good shape, since he's clearly perfect and invulnerable now that the other "establishment" Republicans who were once considered far superior to him have all fizzled.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

If Trump wins, he's done what he needed to do. 

If Rubio gets 33% and Jeb, Kasich, and Christie get less than 10% between them, then Trump has beaten the UNIFIED establishment.  In that case, the new narrative of a crystallized race that is suggested by the Iowa results will be confirmed in New Hampshire.

In this instance, Rubio will be as much of a minority candidate as Trump.  If Trump is only a thirty-something kind of guy, percentage-wise, then "the Establishment" is only thirty-something percent of the GOP primary vote and the religious conservatives/constitutionalist coalition that seems to back Cruz is another thirty-something slice.  Ultimately, two (2) of these guys will have to squeeze the third guy out.

I've been saying for a while now that the Establishment will ultimately come to Cruz.  They'd love a Rubio-Cruz ticket to crush Trump, but Cruz won't go for this at this point, and the Establishment's animosity toward Cruz is worse than the animosity many Establishment Democrats had for George McGovern in 1972.  So I don't know.  Trump will NEVER be VICE President, but if the Establishment opted to make a deal with Trump, they might push a Trump-Rubio ticket.  (Rubio can't refuse such an offer; he's given up his Senate seat and faces oblivion if he isn't on the ticket this year.)  We'll see.  I am truly amazed as to how much hatred there is for Cruz.  I underestimated this when I predicted that the Establishment will go begging to Cruz.  The Establishment really hates him.  Even worse, the Establishment sees Cruz as a guy who, more than Trump, will cost them valuable seats in Congress and statehouses and legislatures.  That's not the way any candidate wants to be seen.

[Sir Mohamed]

Neither. The SC and NV outcomes will decide. But Trump would be seriously damaged after that, so it would do more harm than good for him. He needs a blowout in NH, meaning at least a 10% margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am happy Cruz is doing so well, because without him, Rubio would be nominee. Trump will win NH by a high single digit margin due to Cruz.

[Sir Mohamed]

I am happy Cruz is doing so well, because without him, Rubio would be nominee. Trump will win NH by a high single digit margin due to Cruz.

Not sure, if Cruz would be gone, for whatever reason, the lion's share of his support would go to The Trumpster. The smaller part likely to Carson if he stays in the race.