Which GOPers will get a top 3 finish in at least one of the first four states?
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Question: Which GOPers will get a top 3 finish in at least one of the first four states?
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Author Topic: Which GOPers will get a top 3 finish in at least one of the first four states?  (Read 1241 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« on: December 29, 2015, 02:07:30 PM »
As the race heads into Super Tuesday, candidates will have to justify a reason for staying. Usually top 3 finishes are required to keep going. So who will get a win/place/show finish in at least one of the first four states on the GOP side. (that's IA, NH, SC, NV)
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: December 29, 2015, 03:20:53 PM »
Quote from: Likely Voter on December 29, 2015, 02:07:30 PM
As the race heads into Super Tuesday, candidates will have to justify a reason for staying. Usually top 3 finishes are required to keep going. So who will get a win/place/show finish in at least one of the first four states on the GOP side. (that's IA, NH, SC, NV)

Jeb! will hang on for SEC Tuesday, despite being a no-show in any of the early primaries.  The campaign will do something idiotic, like throw everything into Texas and still get crushed by Cruz.  Only then will he drop out.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: December 29, 2015, 03:23:41 PM »
Iowa
1. Cruz
2. Trump
3. Rubio

New Hampshire
1. Trump
2. Christie
3. Cruz

South Carolina
1. Cruz
2. Trump
3. Rubio (potentially Bush)

Nevada
1. Trump
2. Rubio
3. Cruz

So... Trump, Cruz, Christie, Rubio, and potentially Bush in a Giuliani-esqe last stand in South Carolina.
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2015, 04:01:21 PM »
Iowa
1. Cruz
2. Rubio
3. Carson

New Hampshire
1. Christie
2. Rubio
3. Kasich?

South Carolina
1. Rubio
2. Cruz
3. Bush

Nevada
1. Rubio
2. Cruz
3. Bush
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2015, 04:29:13 PM »
Iowa
1. Cruz
2. Trump
3. Rubio

New Hampshire
1. Trump
2. Kasich
3. Rubio

South Carolina
1. Rubio
2. Cruz
3. Trump

Nevada
1. Rubio
2. Kasich
3. Trump
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2015, 04:43:45 PM »
Trump leads Cruz by 13 points in SC in the latest RCP average.

Iowa
1. Cruz 30%
2. Trump 25%
3. Rubio 15%

New Hampshire
1. Trump 40%
2. Christie 20%
3. Cruz 18%

South Carolina
1. Trump 33%
2. Cruz 30%
3. Rubio 25%

Nevada
1. Rubio 38%
2. Trump 35%
3. Cruz 20%
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Horsemask
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« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2015, 04:45:06 PM »
Quote from: Northeast Representative and Senator-elect Kent on December 29, 2015, 04:01:21 PM
Iowa
1. Cruz
2. Rubio
3. Carson

New Hampshire
1. Christie
2. Rubio
3. Kasich?

South Carolina
1. Rubio
2. Cruz
3. Bush

Nevada
1. Rubio
2. Cruz
3. Bush



You honestly think that Trump will not finish in the Top 3 in any of the early states?
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2015, 05:33:56 PM »
Quote from: Horsemask on December 29, 2015, 04:45:06 PM
Quote from: Northeast Representative and Senator-elect Kent on December 29, 2015, 04:01:21 PM
Iowa
1. Cruz
2. Rubio
3. Carson

New Hampshire
1. Christie
2. Rubio
3. Kasich?

South Carolina
1. Rubio
2. Cruz
3. Bush

Nevada
1. Rubio
2. Cruz
3. Bush



You honestly think that Trump will not finish in the Top 3 in any of the early states?
Absolutely. Mr. Trump's entire campaign is a media creation. Nobody actually likes him except trolls.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2015, 05:44:48 PM »
Quote from: Northeast Representative and Senator-elect Kent on December 29, 2015, 05:33:56 PM
Quote from: Horsemask on December 29, 2015, 04:45:06 PM

You honestly think that Trump will not finish in the Top 3 in any of the early states?
Absolutely. Mr. Trump's entire campaign is a media creation. Nobody actually likes him except trolls.

If only.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2015, 05:45:45 PM »
God "Moderate" Republicans are sad creatures.
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mencken
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« Reply #10 on: December 29, 2015, 05:52:17 PM »
Trump and Cruz certainly. Rubio in all likelihood will get a show in Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada. Christie has a good chance of getting a place in New Hampshire, although Trump's evisceration of him last night may have hampered that.
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Volrath50
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« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2015, 07:11:04 PM »
My shot in the dark. Will be interesting to see how very wrong I was in two months.

Iowa
1. Cruz - 35%
2. Trump - 29 %
3. Carson - 12%

Cruz gets a lot of media attention, but it doesn't do much for him in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire
1. Trump 33 %
2. Christie 18 %
3. Rubio 13%

Christie, despite finishing second, is seen as disappointing, gets no bump.

South Carolina
1. Trump 33 %
2. Cruz 31 %
3. Carson 15 %

Media portrays this is a disappointment for Trump, triumph for Cruz. Cruz gets a moderate bump. Rubio's campaign is really lagging at this point, having failed to make much of a dent.

Nevada
1. Cruz 28%
2. Rubio 26%
3. Trump 23%

Media portrays this as a triumph for Cruz, disappointment for Trump and Rubio. Rubio, having bet his campaign on Nevada, is in a real bad spot going into Super Tuesday, which looks increasingly like a Trump v Cruz matchup. Most candidates have dropped out by now, though Jeb!, Christie and Carson are still holding out hope. GOP establishment is freaking out, beginning to consider backing Cruz to stop Trump.
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SWE
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« Reply #12 on: December 29, 2015, 07:31:07 PM »
Iowa
1. Cruz
2. Trump
3. Rubio

New Hampshire
1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Christie

South Carolina
1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Rubio

Nevada
No idea what order, but Trump, Cruz, and Rubio

So Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Christie
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TDAS04
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« Reply #13 on: December 29, 2015, 08:00:09 PM »
Iowa
1. Cruz
2. Trump
3. Rubio

New Hampshire
1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Christie

South Carolina
1. Cruz
2. Trump
3. Christie

Nevada
1. Trump
2. Rubio
3. Cruz
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Higgs
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« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2015, 02:56:16 AM »
Iowa:
Cruz
Trump
Rubio

New Hampshire:
Trump
Rubio
Christie

South Carolina:
Cruz
Trump
Rubio

Nevada:
Rubio
Cruz
Trump
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pho
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« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2015, 07:45:18 AM »
IA:
Cruz
Trump
Carson

NH:
Trump
Christie
Rubio
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darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2015, 07:50:59 AM »
Iowa -

1. Cruz
2. Trump
3. Rubio

New Hampshire -

1. Trump
2. Rubio
3. Christie

South Carolina -

1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Rubio

Nevada -

1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Rubio
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