Poll of the holidays, Columbus Day edition: Will Trump still lead by Halloween?

[The Mikado]

35 days ago, we did the Labor Day poll, and 83% of you said that Trump would make it to Columbus Day. You were right.

This one is for a much shorter length of time, 19 days. Will Trump still be leading by Halloween?

(Halloween is three days after the next GOP debate)

If Trump is, the next edition of this poll will be for Veteran's Day, then Thanksgiving.

[Abraham Reagan]

You might as well ask whether Halloween will be held on the last day of October. There's really no plausible reason for Trump not to be leading by then.

[The Mikado]

You might as well ask whether Halloween will be held on the last day of October. There's really no plausible reason for Trump not to be leading by then.

Like the last one (the Columbus Day one), the point is to get all of the "Trump is on the verge of collapse" people to actually commit to a verifiable prediction on the subject. This timeframe is shorter, but then again, alleged flavor of the month Trump is one week away from three consecutive months of leading so, if they're right, Trump should be nearing expiration. (I don't think they are right)

Admittedly, Veteran's Day is only 11 days after Halloween and Thanksgiving is only 15 days after that, but November will be a busy month, so two gut checks might be in order.

[Abraham Reagan]

You might as well ask whether Halloween will be held on the last day of October. There's really no plausible reason for Trump not to be leading by then.

Like the last one (the Columbus Day one), the point is to get all of the "Trump is on the verge of collapse" people to actually commit to a verifiable prediction on the subject. This timeframe is shorter, but then again, alleged flavor of the month Trump is one week away from three consecutive months of leading so, if they're right, Trump should be nearing expiration. (I don't think they are right)

Admittedly, Veteran's Day is only 11 days after Halloween and Thanksgiving is only 15 days after that, but November will be a busy month, so two gut checks might be in order.

Ahhh, I remember being one of those people, then I decided to make peace with the situation. I still feel though, that Trump will eventually fizzle out due to declining media coverage  and other candidates being seen as more credible.

[/]

It will probably take another month or two.

[defe07]

That's a great question. But now Trump enters Round 2 and this is the stage where I think we'll actually see him spend money on campaign ads. I think he's learned from the past Giuliani and Perry campaigns, where they were leading by big numbers nationwide for many points of the 2008 and 2012 campaigns and they didn't have the star power Trump does. Now, we still have many months ago before the voting really starts but as it seems right now, Trump will continue to be a major contender. He might slip up a bit in the poll numbers but he knows how to promote his brand as a winner. Trump won't go down the Perry and Giuliani paths and make the same mistake. Best case scenario for Trump is he dominates the primaries in a convincing way and most of the field drops out by the end of March or beginning of April. Worst case scenario is that Trump acts as a kingmaker. But he has at least 15% of the GOP with him no matter what. 

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

I'm thinking that Carson could pull into the lead.

[dudeabides]

I'm thinking that Carson could pull into the lead.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I'm looking forward to encouraging my family to lock in their votes for the frontrunner over The Feast of the Seven Fishes dinner. He ain't leaving his post this calendar year.

[Likely Voter]

Yes, but not by Thanksgiving.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think Trump will fall off before Christmas though

[Mr. Morden]

I'm thinking that Carson could pull into the lead.

Maybe not by Halloween, but he's narrowing the gap fast enough that Carson in the lead by early-mid November seems plausible.  Conceivably, we could start to get some more polls pretty soon in which they're basically tied--one of them "leading" the other by just a point or two.

I mean, all the non-internet polls already have Trump’s lead over Carson down to just 1-5 points.

Everything hinges on how Trump does as host of SNL. 

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

I'm thinking that Carson could pull into the lead.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221857.0

It's not the aggregate, but it is one poll at least.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Is the next poll a Veterans Day one or a Thanksgiving one?

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

It's Halloween and Trump is leading, so answer the question above, Veterans Day or Thanksgiving? (Veterans Day is the day after the next debate though, so you could skip it)

[The Mikado]

Veteran's Day. Thread will go up when I'm at my computer.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's the GOP presumptive nominee, just like Clinton. Until, something changes in SC or Iowa, then shall they remain.