Unemployment rate on November 8, 2016

[Suburbia]

I know you're not economists, but which unemployment rate do you see on November 8, 2016, when Americans cast their ballots for the 45th president and 48th vice president of the United States?

[eric82oslo]

My bet is somewhere between 4.4% and 5.9%.

[bedstuy]

The Federal Reserve says 5.2%-5.6%.  I'll go with that because economists are probably slightly better at guessing than I am.

[Never]

The unemployment rate will likely be between 5% and 5.9%. Of course, this is barring a massive economic catastrophe or boom, neither of which seem particularly likely before Election Night 2016. Still, many things could happen that would affect the unemployment rate in ways that might be difficult for any of us forsee right now in 2014.

[eric82oslo]

I think we might see a boom-like situation in parts of the south and west, like Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Utah and possibly California, Georgia, Washington, Oregon, North Carolina, Virginia. As well as the continuing energy boom in states like North Dakota, Wyoming, Montana and Alaska. The Rust Belt and the north east will partly recover as well, but at a much slower, and probably rather unimpressive, pace. However states like Massachusetts and New York have some really strong competitive advantages and should thus be able to do just fine.

[Never]

I think we might see a boom-like situation in parts of the south and west, like Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Utah and possibly California, Georgia, Washington, Oregon, North Carolina, Virginia. As well as the continuing energy boom in states like North Dakota, Wyoming, Montana and Alaska. The Rust Belt and the north east will partly recover as well, but at a much slower, and probably rather unimpressive, pace. However states like Massachusetts and New York have some really strong competitive advantages and should thus be able to do just fine.

I'm sure that many states will continue to have some economic growth between now and 2016, but all-out booms will probably be few and far between. The American economy is just too weak right now to have a widespread economic boom like what we saw in the 1990s. The only places that I can see having rapid growth are locales such as energy-rich North Dakota.