Who is likelier to win reelection?

[Flake]

Quinn, obviously.

Quinn is ahead in Illinois polls at the moment, while Walker is at best tied. Walker has a female opponent, Quinn does not. Female voters will make up 52-53% of voters in both states. Young women will almost uniamously vote for Burke, perhaps by an 80-20 margin.

lol

It could happen, though 70-30 is probably more realistic. It also depends on what you define as young. That would be women under 30 or under 35.

Also: Wait for the exit polls before starting to laugh. Bruke is an extremely competent candidate, one of the most comeptent Democratic candidate up for election in any state in 2016 in fact. Also, Wisconsin is not Mississippi, although it might come as a great shock to you. Wisconsin has some of the longest and strongest liberal traditions of any US state.

There's a snowballs chance in hell that Burke will win young women by a margin of 70-30 or more.

[eric82oslo]

Quinn, obviously.

Quinn is ahead in Illinois polls at the moment, while Walker is at best tied. Walker has a female opponent, Quinn does not. Female voters will make up 52-53% of voters in both states. Young women will almost uniamously vote for Burke, perhaps by an 80-20 margin.

Do you even read polls? Quinn is only ahead 2. Walker, with the gold standard poll in Wisconsin, is up 5. Come on dude.

Since when did people start to put all their faith in one single poll? People seem convinced that there's no way that Orman will win in Kansas, because most/many polls only show him ahead by about 10%. This seems to be the same kind of logic, if not even worse.

[eric82oslo]

Quinn, obviously.

Quinn is ahead in Illinois polls at the moment, while Walker is at best tied. Walker has a female opponent, Quinn does not. Female voters will make up 52-53% of voters in both states. Young women will almost uniamously vote for Burke, perhaps by an 80-20 margin.

lol

It could happen, though 70-30 is probably more realistic. It also depends on what you define as young. That would be women under 30 or under 35.

Also: Wait for the exit polls before starting to laugh. Bruke is an extremely competent candidate, one of the most comeptent Democratic candidate up for election in any state in 2016 in fact. Also, Wisconsin is not Mississippi, although it might come as a great shock to you. Wisconsin has some of the longest and strongest liberal traditions of any US state.

There's a snowballs chance in hell that Burke will win young women by a margin of 70-30 or more.

Then you will be up for a great surprise come election night. According to polls, Burke is up with a huge margin among all women and shows Wisconsin to have one of the strongest - if not the single strongest - male/female disparities of any state this year. Some polls show the disparity to be close to 50% between the sexes for the governor's race there. That's a stronger disparity than even most Hillary match ups are showing. And if Burke is up by about 20-25% among all women, it's not very unlikely that she might be up by about 40% among unmarried, young women.

[Maxwell]

Quinn, obviously.

Quinn is ahead in Illinois polls at the moment, while Walker is at best tied. Walker has a female opponent, Quinn does not. Female voters will make up 52-53% of voters in both states. Young women will almost uniamously vote for Burke, perhaps by an 80-20 margin.

Do you even read polls? Quinn is only ahead 2. Walker, with the gold standard poll in Wisconsin, is up 5. Come on dude.

Since when did people start to put all their faith in one single poll? People seem convinced that there's no way that Orman will win in Kansas, because most/many polls only show him ahead by about 10%. This seems to be the same kind of logic, if not even worse.

At least I'm basing my thoughts on actual numbers, as opposed to OH YEAH, BURKES DEFINITELY GONNA WIN YOUNG WOMEN BY 60 POINTS, TOTALLY.

[Vosem]

Neither the age gap nor the gender gap is severe enough to give Burke a 70-30 win with young women en route to anything less than a landslide victory (of over 60% overall), and she seems to be headed toward a narrow defeat at present.

[RR1997]

Walker

[Princess Nyan Cat]

Walker.