2014 United States Senate outlook

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

On Mary Landrieu: I still got her winning reelection due to heavy turnout in New Orleans and maybe Baton Rouge (both cities have Democratic mayors).

When you mentioned heavy turnout in the cities, I remembered what Cokie Roberts said: "In my home state of Louisiana, they bury the dead above-ground to make it easier for them to get to the polls."

Anyhow, Landrieu probably will do good in Baton Rouge and New Orleans in her own right, but if she does not make 50% in November, then I think that she will have some trouble winning the runoff, due to my expectation that a runoff would have a drop in turnout that would hurt Landrieu more than Cassidy. I have this race as a Tossup for the November election, but if there is a two-way runoff, I think that Cassidy would be a slight favorite.

I think a potential runoff would still be a tossup, not tilting R, just because of her success in the past. She ran and won a runoff in 2002 in a Republican year, and won 52-48 in 2008 when her whole state went by nearly 20 points to McCain. She can hold her ground in runoffs, however I do think this will be her toughest year. But as of today (albeit we are still months away), I would not give Cassidy an edge during the runoff.

[TX Conservative Dem]

If Landrieu loses, would her brother, Mitch run in 2020 considering he's won 2 statewide elections as Lieutenant Governor?

[Never]

On Mary Landrieu: I still got her winning reelection due to heavy turnout in New Orleans and maybe Baton Rouge (both cities have Democratic mayors).

When you mentioned heavy turnout in the cities, I remembered what Cokie Roberts said: "In my home state of Louisiana, they bury the dead above-ground to make it easier for them to get to the polls."

Anyhow, Landrieu probably will do good in Baton Rouge and New Orleans in her own right, but if she does not make 50% in November, then I think that she will have some trouble winning the runoff, due to my expectation that a runoff would have a drop in turnout that would hurt Landrieu more than Cassidy. I have this race as a Tossup for the November election, but if there is a two-way runoff, I think that Cassidy would be a slight favorite.

I think a potential runoff would still be a tossup, not tilting R, just because of her success in the past. She ran and won a runoff in 2002 in a Republican year, and won 52-48 in 2008 when her whole state went by nearly 20 points to McCain. She can hold her ground in runoffs, however I do think this will be her toughest year. But as of today (albeit we are still months away), I would not give Cassidy an edge during the runoff.

Well, 2014 is probably going to be a much better year for the Republicans than 2002 or 2008. The fact that Landrieu won by only 4 points in 2008, even though that was a heavily Democratic year, should be a cause for concern to anyone who is rooting for her this year.

I still would give her a chance even though I think Cassidy would win the runoff, because it appears that Landrieu is probably one of the best campaigners in the Senate. I just think that the overall political environment as of April 2014 does not favor her. She could localize the election and win, but that might be an uphill battle.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY,ARK and La are states that Blll Clinton won twice. Obamacare is achieving its Objectives. just because these are Romney states, Pryor and Landrieu were elected during Clinton's term. I don't think the last poll, is favorable to Cotton especially, Pryor has a much better chance of winning than Landrieu.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Both Pryor and Landrieu are from respective political dynasties.