2014 United States Senate outlook

[TX Conservative Dem]

Virginia: incumbent US Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) will easily win reelection by double digits over former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie (R): 57% to 41%.

Louisiana: 3-term incumbent US Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) will win reelection over whoever is the GOP nominee with 54%, giving her 6th statewide election victory.

New Jersey: incumbent US Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) has taken a low profile since going to the Senate last fall, he'll easily win a full six-year term in November with 60% at best.

Texas-my homestate: Cornyn wins reelection to a 3rd term with 70 +%. The man has won 5 statewide elections: TX Supreme Court in 1990, 1996, Texas State Attorney General in 1998 and United States Senator in 2002 and 2008.

West Virginia-OPEN: Capito wins 53% to 45% for the GOP.

Colorado: incumbent US Senator Mark Udall (D-CO) will get reelected, getting 56%.

New Mexico: since popular Governor Susana Martinez (R) is going to win reelection very BIG in the governor's race, the big question is whether the wave will affect the Senate race: I see incumbent US Senator Tom Udall (D-New Mex) surviving the GOP wave, getting around 54-55 percent.

Oregon: the GOPers getting hyped up about a big wave in the fall, but they're NOT getting any statewide offices down there in the Beaver State. Markey wins reelection by double digits.

Alaska: Whoever is the GOP nominee will take out incumbent US Senator Mark Begich (D-AK) in November.

North Carolina: I'm about to give up hope on US Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) if she doesn't poll close to 50 percent.

[Potatoe]

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Alright, I know Texas has a history of Conservatism, but 70+%? Really? The Democrats would have to come out and sacrifice a chicken to lose by that much.

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#Ready4Miller&Treadwell

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It's months before the Election, and she's only trailing by narrow margins, and is beating the frontrunner for the Nomination in Polling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Begich or Hagen should win, based on Joe Miller and tea Party. And we will add 1 more seat.

[moderatevoter]

Lol, if Kesha Rogers is the Democratic nominee, then maybe Cornyn will hit 70%.

[Potatoe]

Lol, if Kesha Rogers is the Democratic nominee, then maybe Cornyn will hit 70%.

Alameel seems to be giving her a run for her money, but if she is Nominated, I'd expect Cornyn to get 69% or 70%

[illegaloperation]

Hagan is going to win simply because the Republican field is a joke.

Some Republicans are leading her right now because they are not well know and can be consider generic. Once people know who they are, their numbers will drop.

It's too bad that Hagan has such bland personality. If she has Begich's personality, this would be a likely D right now.

Oh, and Begich will probably win. Alaska is an elastic state and Begich is a good fit.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is too GOP friendly.

[NewYorkExpress]

Unless Joe Miller is the nominee (which is certainly plausible) the GOP will pick up Alaska.

Landrieu is going down, the question is whether this race makes it to a runoff...

Hagan loses to almost everyone in the Republican field if the climate is as-is in November.

Booker won't win with 60% (probably more 56-58%) and Cornyn won't win with 70% (and probably not 60% either). In fact, I could see him struggle to hit 55% against Rogers, given Rogers is more conservative than he is.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

So Begich, who's toe-to-toe with Sullivan and beating Treadwell and is running the best campaign of any Democrat in the country, is done, but Corbett, whose approvals are at 35% and is making no effort to improve them, isn't?

lol. just lol.

[illegaloperation]

Unless Joe Miller is the nominee (which is certainly plausible) the GOP will pick up Alaska.

Landrieu is going down, the question is whether this race makes it to a runoff...

Hagan loses to almost everyone in the Republican field if the climate is as-is in November.

Booker won't win with 60% (probably more 56-58%) and Cornyn won't win with 70% (and probably not 60% either). In fact, I could see him struggle to hit 55% against Rogers, given Rogers is more conservative than he is.

Why are you so pessimistic?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Hagan needs to pull a McCaskill and do some rating to get Brannon nominated, because if he is then NC-Sen immediately becomes Likely D at worst, because he is frickin' insane. Landrieu and Pryor both face tough races, but at this point I actually think Landrieu is more likely to lose than Pryor at this point given recent polls showing Pryor leading and Landrieu trailing (plus the fact that she must get 50%), but she has pulled out tough races before. Also lol @ Tom Udall getting just 54-55%, he is one of the most popular Senators in the country.

[Potatoe]

Booker won't win with 60% (probably more 56-58%) and Cornyn won't win with 70% (and probably not 60% either). In fact, I could see him struggle to hit 55% against Rogers, given Rogers is more conservative than he is.

Yes, the Larouchite who compares the President to Hitler and is part of a Political cult is clearly going to win against the popular incumbent. Please.

[badgate]

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Alright, I know Texas has a history of Conservatism, but 70+%? Really? The Democrats would have to come out and sacrifice a chicken to lose by that much.

Democrats would finally appeal to rural voters, though.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

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Alright, I know Texas has a history of Conservatism, but 70+%? Really? The Democrats would have to come out and sacrifice a chicken to lose by that much.

You forget that Kesha Rogers is still in this.

[Potatoe]

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Alright, I know Texas has a history of Conservatism, but 70+%? Really? The Democrats would have to come out and sacrifice a chicken to lose by that much.

You forget that Kesha Rogers is still in this.

Yeah, she'd probably get at best only 31 or 32, but Alameel is still in as well.

[MATTROSE94]

Unless Joe Miller is the nominee (which is certainly plausible) the GOP will pick up Alaska.

Landrieu is going down, the question is whether this race makes it to a runoff...

Hagan loses to almost everyone in the Republican field if the climate is as-is in November.

Booker won't win with 60% (probably more 56-58%) and Cornyn won't win with 70% (and probably not 60% either). In fact, I could see him struggle to hit 55% against Rogers, given Rogers is more conservative than he is.

Seems about right, though I think that John Cornyn will receive around 57-58% of the vote against Kesha Rogers.

[Potatoe]

Unless Joe Miller is the nominee (which is certainly plausible) the GOP will pick up Alaska.

Landrieu is going down, the question is whether this race makes it to a runoff...

Hagan loses to almost everyone in the Republican field if the climate is as-is in November.

Booker won't win with 60% (probably more 56-58%) and Cornyn won't win with 70% (and probably not 60% either). In fact, I could see him struggle to hit 55% against Rogers, given Rogers is more conservative than he is.

Seems about right, though I think that John Cornyn will receive around 57-58% of the vote against Kesha Rogers.

Why? She's a f****** Larouchite.

[tmthforu94]

Unless Joe Miller is the nominee (which is certainly plausible) the GOP will pick up Alaska.

Landrieu is going down, the question is whether this race makes it to a runoff...

Hagan loses to almost everyone in the Republican field if the climate is as-is in November.

Booker won't win with 60% (probably more 56-58%) and Cornyn won't win with 70% (and probably not 60% either). In fact, I could see him struggle to hit 55% against Rogers, given Rogers is more conservative than he is.

Seems about right, though I think that John Cornyn will receive around 57-58% of the vote against Kesha Rogers.

Why? She's a f****** Larouchite.

Kesha Rogers appeal is vastly underrated. Not only is she an extremely charismatic speaker, but she also can appeal to African-American voters as well as rural voters. She is just the candidate that Texas Democrats need to form a winning coalition. Not sure if she can upset Cornyn, but she will give him a run for his money.

[7,052,770]

Unless Joe Miller is the nominee (which is certainly plausible) the GOP will pick up Alaska.

Landrieu is going down, the question is whether this race makes it to a runoff...

Hagan loses to almost everyone in the Republican field if the climate is as-is in November.

Booker won't win with 60% (probably more 56-58%) and Cornyn won't win with 70% (and probably not 60% either). In fact, I could see him struggle to hit 55% against Rogers, given Rogers is more conservative than he is.

Seems about right, though I think that John Cornyn will receive around 57-58% of the vote against Kesha Rogers.

Why? She's a f****** Larouchite.

Kesha Rogers appeal is vastly underrated. Not only is she an extremely charismatic speaker, but she also can appeal to African-American voters as well as rural voters. She is just the candidate that Texas Democrats need to form a winning coalition. Not sure if she can upset Cornyn, but she will give him a run for his money.

Um... Kesha is our Todd Akin. If I weren't 100% sure she's gonna lose the primary, I would be really worried about her.

[IceSpear]

Unless Joe Miller is the nominee (which is certainly plausible) the GOP will pick up Alaska.

Landrieu is going down, the question is whether this race makes it to a runoff...

Hagan loses to almost everyone in the Republican field if the climate is as-is in November.

Booker won't win with 60% (probably more 56-58%) and Cornyn won't win with 70% (and probably not 60% either). In fact, I could see him struggle to hit 55% against Rogers, given Rogers is more conservative than he is.

Seems about right, though I think that John Cornyn will receive around 57-58% of the vote against Kesha Rogers.

Why? She's a f****** Larouchite.

Kesha Rogers appeal is vastly underrated. Not only is she an extremely charismatic speaker, but she also can appeal to African-American voters as well as rural voters. She is just the candidate that Texas Democrats need to form a winning coalition. Not sure if she can upset Cornyn, but she will give him a run for his money.

Yes, her desire to impeach Obama will surely play well among African Americans.

[Potatoe]

Unless Joe Miller is the nominee (which is certainly plausible) the GOP will pick up Alaska.

Landrieu is going down, the question is whether this race makes it to a runoff...

Hagan loses to almost everyone in the Republican field if the climate is as-is in November.

Booker won't win with 60% (probably more 56-58%) and Cornyn won't win with 70% (and probably not 60% either). In fact, I could see him struggle to hit 55% against Rogers, given Rogers is more conservative than he is.

Seems about right, though I think that John Cornyn will receive around 57-58% of the vote against Kesha Rogers.

Why? She's a f****** Larouchite.

Kesha Rogers appeal is vastly underrated. Not only is she an extremely charismatic speaker, but she also can appeal to African-American voters as well as rural voters. She is just the candidate that Texas Democrats need to form a winning coalition. Not sure if she can upset Cornyn, but she will give him a run for his money.

Am I going crazy? She's a member of the Larouchites, a group that has went from Trotskyist to Neo-Fascist, and she compares Obama to Hitler. This is not a Candidate we need to run.

[Potatoe]

If you actually listen to Kesha Rogers, you realize she isn't that bad. She's a crazy Elizabeth Warren.

She compares Obama to Hitler, and supports Lyndon Larouche. She's a nutjob.

[MATTROSE94]

Unless Joe Miller is the nominee (which is certainly plausible) the GOP will pick up Alaska.

Landrieu is going down, the question is whether this race makes it to a runoff...

Hagan loses to almost everyone in the Republican field if the climate is as-is in November.

Booker won't win with 60% (probably more 56-58%) and Cornyn won't win with 70% (and probably not 60% either). In fact, I could see him struggle to hit 55% against Rogers, given Rogers is more conservative than he is.

Seems about right, though I think that John Cornyn will receive around 57-58% of the vote against Kesha Rogers.

Why? She's a f****** Larouchite.

Kesha Rogers appeal is vastly underrated. Not only is she an extremely charismatic speaker, but she also can appeal to African-American voters as well as rural voters. She is just the candidate that Texas Democrats need to form a winning coalition. Not sure if she can upset Cornyn, but she will give him a run for his money.

Am I going crazy? She's a member of the Larouchites, a group that has went from Trotskyist to Neo-Fascist, and she compares Obama to Hitler. This is not a Candidate we need to run.

I didn't realize how radical Kesha Rogers is. I guess that John Cornyn will be re-elected with 65-70% of the vote then if Rogers wins the Democratic Senate nomination. 

[TX Conservative Dem]

On Mary Landrieu: I still got her winning reelection due to heavy turnout in New Orleans and maybe Baton Rouge (both cities have Democratic mayors).

[Never]

On Mary Landrieu: I still got her winning reelection due to heavy turnout in New Orleans and maybe Baton Rouge (both cities have Democratic mayors).

When you mentioned heavy turnout in the cities, I remembered what Cokie Roberts said: "In my home state of Louisiana, they bury the dead above-ground to make it easier for them to get to the polls."

Anyhow, Landrieu probably will do good in Baton Rouge and New Orleans in her own right, but if she does not make 50% in November, then I think that she will have some trouble winning the runoff, due to my expectation that a runoff would have a drop in turnout that would hurt Landrieu more than Cassidy. I have this race as a Tossup for the November election, but if there is a two-way runoff, I think that Cassidy would be a slight favorite.