How many democrats left in the south (as a whole)?

[ElectionsGuy]

Using this map as a definition:

Kaine, Manchin, and Nelson were all re-elected last year, so that's the minimum (thanks SWE). I'm going to say 5. With those three plus Warner and Hagan.

[SWE]

7 ideally, but probably 6.

[Flake]

Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, Bill Nelson, Kay Hagan, Michelle Nunn, Mary Landrieu, Joe Manchin, and Alison Grimes.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, Bill Nelson, Mary Landrieu, Joe Manchin, and maybe Alison Grimes.

[Mr. Reactionary]

4. Warner, Kaine, Manchin, Nelson.

[NewYorkExpress]

3 or 4

Kaine Warner and Nelson for sure... but I'm wobbly about Manchin, think he might switch parties if the GOP gets the majority. (asked or otherwise)

[Frodo]

If we're talking senators, I'd say three -Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, and Bill Nelson.

Following his state, Manchin switches parties if and when Republicans take the chamber.   

[moderatevoter]

I never considered the possibility of Manchin switching parties.

[SWE]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/26/1113885/-Party-Matters-Joe-Manchin-is-closer-to-Bernie-Sanders-than-he-is-to-any-Republican

Manchin isn't changing parties anytime soon

[NewYorkExpress]

If we're talking senators, I'd say three -Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, and Bill Nelson.

Following his state, Manchin switches parties if and when Republicans take the chamber.   

While I think it's a live possibility (Especially if the GOP is stuck at 50), I think it's well below a certainty that Manchin switches parties... It's probably more likely he loses in 2018.

[SWE]

If we're talking senators, I'd say three -Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, and Bill Nelson.

Following his state, Manchin switches parties if and when Republicans take the chamber.   

While I think it's a live possibility (Especially if the GOP is stuck at 50), I think it's well below a certainty that Manchin switches parties... It's probably more likely he loses in 2018.

If he can win every county sans three on the same night Obama lost every county, I don't think he's got anything to worry about

[LeBron]

Kentucky: 0 (I don't see Grimes taking out McConnell as much as I'd love to see it happen)
West Virginia: 0 (Capito will win)
Virginia: 2 (Warner will win + Kaine)
Tennessee: 0 (Unless Alexander gets primaried and Joe Brown runs, this seat will stay in GOP hands)
North Carolina: 1 (There's no way NC votes out Hagan for a Neo-Confederate or the leader of the NC legislature)
South Carolina: 0 (Scott will easily win and Graham will survive his primary and win the general)
Georgia: 1 (I still have faith that Nunn can pull this off)
Florida: 1 (Nelson, assuming he doesn't run to primary Crist)
Alabama: 0 (Literally impossible with no Democratic candidate; not that they would have stood a chance anyways)
Mississippi: 0 (Childers is a good candidate for MS, but he would struggle even against McDaniel)
Arkansas: 0 (Pryor is going down! )
Louisiana: 1 (It's roughly about a 50/50 chance, but I narrowly give Landrieu the advantage of holding on since she's survived runoffs before and is polling fairly well in the jungle primary)
Oklahoma: 0 (lol)
Texas: 0 (Alameel has money and he's a good candidate, but no way he beats Cornyn)

So my best guess is 6 then.

[Frodo]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/26/1113885/-Party-Matters-Joe-Manchin-is-closer-to-Bernie-Sanders-than-he-is-to-any-Republican

Manchin isn't changing parties anytime soon

Tell that to Ben Nighthorse Campbell (a moderate Democrat if I recall correctly) before he switched -and who promptly started voting more conservatively after he became a Republican.  Also, judging by where the party as a whole is moving with regards to AGW-influenced climate change and its hostility to fossil fuel industries (especially coal), he may find himself compelled to do so even if you put aside naked opportunism.    

[TDAS04]

I would say five. 

[SWE]

West Virginia: 0 (Capito will win)

What about Joe Manchin?

[MATTROSE94]

If we're talking senators, I'd say three -Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, and Bill Nelson.

Following his state, Manchin switches parties if and when Republicans take the chamber.   

While I think it's a live possibility (Especially if the GOP is stuck at 50), I think it's well below a certainty that Manchin switches parties... It's probably more likely he loses in 2018.

If he can win every county sans three on the same night Obama lost every county, I don't think he's got anything to worry about

I agree. Joe Mancin will probably remain in office until the 2020s or 2030s. A Republican will probably be his successor though.

[LeBron]

West Virginia: 0 (Capito will win)

What about Joe Manchin?

Whoops, forgot about him. 7 then, though Manchin isn't much of a Democrat anyways by national standards and the moment he retires or makes a political move that requires him to give up his seat, this seat is history for the Dems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

5, either Hagen or Landrieu loses.

[Joshgreen]

West Virginia: 0 (Capito will win)

What about Joe Manchin?

Whoops, forgot about him. 7 then, though Manchin isn't much of a Democrat anyways by national standards and the moment he retires or makes a political move that requires him to give up his seat, this seat is history for the Dems.

I'm glad you've got this all figured out.

[Heimdal]

Virginia: 2. I don’t see Warner losing, unless the Democrats are imploding nationally.

West Virginia: 1. Capito will probably win. Manchin will hang on for a term or two, until the Republicanization of West Virginia is complete.

Kentucky: 0. I think this can go either way, but McConnell probably has a slight advantage, since it is Kentucky.

North Carolina: 1. Kay Hagan isn’t that great, but neither are her opponents.

Tennessee: 0. Tennessee is one of the Republican states in the country, and the Tennessee GOP knows how to field good candidates.

South Carolina: 0. It is South Carolina.

Georgia: 0. I give the Republicans the edge here, since it is a midterm and the Democratic base might not turn out the way they did in 2012.

Florida: 1. Nothing to see here.

Alabama: 0. Does the Democratic party still exist in Alabama?

Mississippi: 0. Travis Childers might have done it in a great Democratic year, against a seriously flawed Republican candidate. Neither of those conditions seems to be in place.

Arkansas: 0. The Republicanization of Arkansas is so far along that I don’t see how Pryor can hold on, especially against a candidate like Cotton.

Louisiana: 0. I don’t know enough about this race, but I give Republicans the edge since it is a midterm in a heavily Republican state. Landrieu can’t rely on the same sort of coalitions that Hagan and Nunn might be able to build.

Oklahoma: 0. It is Oklahoma.

Texas: 0. Texas is too red, and the Texas GOP are good at winning elections.

So I get the number 5.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Tim Kaine was elected in 2012, NOT reelected.

I see Manchin hanging on for one final term until he leaves in 2024 in West Virginia.

Both Warner and Kaine will be in the Senate FOR LIFE in Virginia.

Nelson in Florida won't run again in 2018.

[TX Conservative Dem]

I do NOT see Manchin switching parties.

Y'all forgot about Missouri as a Southern state. I see McCaskill holding on for one more term until 2024.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I can see Hagan holding on.  I also think Landrieu will hang on.  And I think that Pryor will hold on.

I don't see Grimes or Nunn pulling it off.

I'm not conceding WV to Capito, despite the Presidential trends.  WV elected a Democratic Governor in 2012, as well as re-electing Manchin, and while these guys distanced themselves from the national ticket, I'm not convinced that WV is going to go all the way to the GOP on all levels just yet.