The Elections of 2024: You Decide - Belgian Parliament

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Well since Iceland's presidential election is tomorrow, we already have a thread on Mexico, and there's a lot of upcoming elections this second week of June, I'm skipping ahead to Belgium.

System: 150 members, elected in 11 multi member constituencies with between 4 and 24 members in each constituency, and a 5% threshold in each. 87 are elected in the 5 Flemish constituencies, 47 in the 5 Walloon constituencies, and 16 in Brussels. As parties differ between the French and Dutch speaking parts of the country, we'll have 3 ballots here (since at least one party runs in their respective speaking area and not Brussels) for each region.

Parties included have MPs or are explicity polling at 1% in their region. I've tried to include mostly summaries from wikipedia or policy points that parties explicitly put at the top of their platforms on their website. There may be some inaccuracy due to translation error.

Flemish Parties:
Flemish Interest (VB): A far-right, Flemish nationalist, pro-independence, socially conservative, Eurosceptic and fiercely anti-immigration party, descended from the former Flemish Block party which was dissolved due to racism. Previously being more pro-Russia, considering Putin "an ally in the fight against multiculturalism", they have denounced him after the Ukraine invasion, though still criticizing the amount of aid being given to Ukraine. They are fiercely anti-Islam and pro-Israel. Economically they've ping-ponged between neoliberalism and mixed economic ideals over the past few years, so I'm not really sure where they stand now.
New Flemish Alliance (N-VA): Considered the more moderate counterpart to VB, N-VA remains quite right-wing, being increasingly anti-immigrant and anti-multicultural, and neoliberal on economics. Previously being pro-EU, they've shifted to a Eurosceptic stance. They are still Flemish nationalist, though less "hardline" than VB, in favor of gradual independence and "inclusive nationalism". Previously center to center-right, they have become more right-wing in recent years in response to rising support for VB.
Forward (Vooruit): The Flemish social democrats, running this election on the 3 main points of purchasing power (mostly increasing the minimum wage and reducing VAT on gas and electricity), childcare (wanting 130 days of free childcare), and healthcare (though I couldn't find very concrete proposals here aside from opposing privatization). Aside from that, pretty much your normal EU socdems from what I can tell.
Christian Democratic and Flemish (CD&V): The Flemish christian democrats, running on "your money, your safety, your well-being", wanting to increase tax deductibility for childcare, abolishing reduced paybacks for visiting "non-conventional" physiotherapists, and improving policing. They're socially conservative, especially on abortion and euthanasia, and fiscally left-leaning.
Worker's Party of Belgium (PDVA): The united communist party, which has gained momentum in recent years. Their main policy points this election are the "millionaire tax" (2% above 5 million euros, 3% above 10 million), closing corporate tax loopholes, reducing VAT on food to 0%, reducing the number of federal ministers, and public transit investments. They also support decreasing the retirement age to 65, and abstained on a parliamentary vote condemning the Ukraine invasion (with their party spokesman condemning the invasion but saying NATO shouldn't be involved). As one would expect, they're left-wing to far-left. Unlike other parties, PVDA and their French-speaking counterpart PTB are one united party, so for the other constituencies just refer back to this.
Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats (Open Vld): A classical liberal, somewhat right-libertarian party, supporting limiting unemployment benefits, relaxing abortion and euthanasia laws, and increasing prison capacity. Previously more right-wing Thatcherite, the party has moved more to the center-right area, with their more conservative members leaving for N-VA or even VB.
Green (Groen): Progressive greens running on "fair climate, fair opportunities, affordable care", including reducing greenhouse gas emissions by over half by 2030, doubling the preventative care budget, and increasing the minimum wage to 60% of the median wage, among other things. Internationally they oppose Russia and Israel in their current wars. As one would expect, they're center-left to left wing.

Walloon parties:
Socialist Party (PS): Similar to Vooruit, PS is your basic European social democratic party, with perhaps a slightly more left-tinged program than Vooruit, calling themselves ecosocialist. Their main platform points I could find on their website are a 300 Euro/month wage increase, basic income for people 18-25, and a capital gains tax. Center-left.
Reformist Movement (MR): Similar to Open Vld, MR is also a classical liberal group, with economically liberal positions like elimination of the property withholding tax and a charter of taxpayers rights, and socially liberal positions like sanctions against companies that discriminate in employment, and opposition to "ghettoization" of communities. Center-right.
The Engaged Ones (LE): The successors to the Humanist Democratic Centre, a christian democratic party similar to CD&V, LE has dropped all references to religion in their platform and instead describe themselves as "for the common good" and far more socially liberal, EU-federalist, and economically vague from what I could see on their website. Definitely centrist.
Worker's Party of Belgium (PTB): Same as PVDA.
Ecologists (Ecolo): Similar to Groen, they're a progressive, environmentalist party. One main proposal they've put forward is the 300/30/3 plan (green space 300m away from a home, protecting 30% of land, and 3 trees in sight of a home) alongside replacing the Senate with a Citizen's Assembly, drawn by lot. Otherwise it's your normal center-left, progressive and environmentalist platform. Center left.
Independent Federalist Democrats (DeFi): A party historically focused on French-speaker's rights, DeFi is also socially liberal, promoting secularism and women's rights, and economically right-leaning, with a business-oriented platform. Center to center-right.
At Our Place (CN): Supported by VB and the French RN, CN is a far-right grouping, wanting to ban minarets, tighten citizenship conditions, and abolish the Senate. Opposition to them has been staunch, with the PS, Ecolo, PTB, and LE Councillors in Mons voting to ban their activities in the city, and several other gatherings of CN have been banned by local authorities. Far-right.
New Flemish Alliance (N-VA): Kinda hilariously, N-VA has decided to run in Wallonia for the first time. and have hit 1% in a handful of polls. Just look at their description for Flanders.


Brussels parties are all those shown here, with the exception of CN. I almost decided to include the single-issue Viva Palestina because I thought it'd be funny, but decided against it, in part because they haven't polled above 1%.

72 hours.

[Lechasseur]

Flanders: CD&V
Wallonia: Les Engagés
Brussels: Les Engagés

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The stances of the Flemish political parties on Israel-Palestine according to Het Nieuwsblad (newspaper)

Vooruit: (social democrat)

Vooruit advocates immediate recognition of the Palestinian state, the unconditional release of the hostages and maximum access for humanitarian aid in Gaza. They also want to impose economic sanctions on Israel.

CD&V (christian democrat)

In favor of recognition of Palestine, an essential step for them to achieve a two-state solution. CD&V also advocates economic sanctions against Israel, such as a boycott of products from the occupied territories, and wants to evaluate the association agreement between the EU and Israel.

Open VLD (liberal)

Within Open VLD there is division about the recognition of Palestine and about the embargo for products from occupied territories.

N-VA (liberal conservative, flemish nationalist)

N-VA advocates a two-state solution, but does not currently support the recognition of Palestine or economic sanctions against Israel. The party does reject the Israeli occupation policy. The party mainly wants to focus on diplomatic pressure to end the conflict.

Vlaams Belang (flemish nationalist, right-wing populist)

The party supports a two-state solution. But Flanders cannot do more than condemn war crimes on both sides, it sounds. Vlaams Belang wants to suspend developmental aid to Palestinian areas. According to the party, this will only end up with Hamas.

Groen: (green politics)

Groen wants to recognize Palestine as soon as possible. The party also wants economic sanctions against Israel and calls for a total embargo. If it were up to the Greens, Israel would no longer have a place at international events and the Belgian government could no longer coöperate with Israeli authorities.

PVDA (marxist)

The party that goes the furthest in its position is PVDA. The party talks about a genocide and wants to oblige Israel to declare a ceasefire. All ties between our country and Israel must be immediately broken.

See: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261285.1175

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Flemish Parties:
Flemish Interest (VB): Economically they've ping-ponged between neoliberalism and mixed economic ideals over the past few years, so I'm not really sure where they stand now.

I don't think anyone does tbf, not even theirselves.

It's more like they try to target the low info low engaged voters that obv would be economically left wing due to be lower class but in parliament they vote more liberally or right wing on economic issues. Basically what they say isn't really what they do (they also have some upper class support). I think it's more third way, in that they're not as neoliberal as N-VA and OVLD (+MR) would be, but not left wing either. State capitalism basically or economic nationalism.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Forward (Vooruit): The Flemish social democrats, running this election on the 3 main points of purchasing power (mostly increasing the minimum wage and reducing VAT on gas and electricity), childcare (wanting 130 days of free childcare), and healthcare (though I couldn't find very concrete proposals here aside from opposing privatization). Aside from that, pretty much your normal EU socdems from what I can tell.

That's not really the case to be fair. They're not your normal EU socdems. They're explicitly anti-weed and have shifted dramatically to the right on cultural issues, such as immigration.

They also oppose restrictions on individual car use (being dubbed the "party of the automobile" by some media outlets)

And this is why wikipedia isn't a good source.

Has been there for like 6 years and it's bullsh**t. I've no-one actually heard refer them as such or consider them like that. The only place where i've seen this mentioned is wikipedia...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

3 times PVDA (which is obviously also what my vote next weekend will be).

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Forward (Vooruit): The Flemish social democrats, running this election on the 3 main points of purchasing power (mostly increasing the minimum wage and reducing VAT on gas and electricity), childcare (wanting 130 days of free childcare), and healthcare (though I couldn't find very concrete proposals here aside from opposing privatization). Aside from that, pretty much your normal EU socdems from what I can tell.

That's not really the case to be fair. They're not your normal EU socdems. They're explicitly anti-weed and have shifted dramatically to the right on cultural issues, such as immigration.

Didn't see that on their website, although they did definitely seem to have all their economic stuff at the top.

They also oppose restrictions on individual car use (being dubbed the "party of the automobile" by some media outlets)

And this is why wikipedia isn't a good source.

Has been there for like 6 years and it's bullsh**t. I've no-one actually heard refer them as such or consider them like that. The only place where i've seen this mentioned is wikipedia...

Looking at it again, it seems like there was a bit of a dispute where Greens did attack them for this (not with that name though) in 2017, though this seems more local than anything else, and probably shouldn't be on the page. I've removed it here for that reason. https://www.gva.be/cnt/dmf20170425_02851767

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Brussels parties are all those shown here, with the exception of CN. I almost decided to include the single-issue Viva Palestina because I thought it'd be funny, but decided against it, in part because they haven't polled above 1%.

Good chance though that they'll be outside the ones you've mentioned in Brussels because they have a sitting delegation that they'll be the best performing political party in Brussels. I doubt it'll be enough for a seat and it'll mostly act as a spoiler for the left wing parties who already are pro-Palestine.

But the reason they wouldn't poll above 1% is because the voters for such party would not be reachable by phones and probably would be low info muslim voters which Brussels has a lot off (some districts even majority muslim). A party named ISLAM once got elected to city council in Molenbeek. And this one seems likely to have more support than ISLAM which was explicitly pro-sharia law.

The dude running the party also is to some extent famous, at least i know him for quite some time. Don't underestimate that party, i would say.

Voor U [For You] also probably should have been included. They have a good chance of hitting 1%, they just were never included in a poll yet. (which i think Viva Palestina was neither) Though almost zero chance they break electoral threshold somewhere.

Polling in Belgium generally sucks tho. Malta has more polls than we do. Lots of criticizing from media generally on the process of poll conducting and therefore they only decide/choose to only do a few or once each year for that reason (even if a "poll" is so important, that we've had chairpersons of a party resign because of one single bad poll, because we have so few polls).

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Brussels parties are all those shown here, with the exception of CN. I almost decided to include the single-issue Viva Palestina because I thought it'd be funny, but decided against it, in part because they haven't polled above 1%.

Good chance though that they'll be outside the ones you've mentioned in Brussels because they have a sitting delegation that they'll be the best performing political party in Brussels. I doubt it'll be enough for a seat and it'll mostly act as a spoiler for the left wing parties who already are pro-Palestine.

But the reason they wouldn't poll above 1% is because the voters for such party would not be reachable by phones and probably would be low info muslim voters which Brussels has a lot off (some districts even majority muslim). A party named ISLAM once got elected to city council in Molenbeek. And this one seems likely to have more support than ISLAM which was explicitly pro-sharia law.

The dude running the party also is to some extent famous, at least i know him for quite some time. Don't underestimate that party, i would say.

Voor U [For You] also probably should have been included. They have a good chance of hitting 1%, they just were never included in a poll yet. (which i think Viva Palestina was neither) Though almost zero chance they break electoral threshold somewhere.

Polling in Belgium generally sucks tho. Malta has more polls than we do. Lots of criticizing from media generally on the process of poll conducting and therefore they only decide/choose to only do a few or once each year for that reason (even if a "poll" is so important, that we've had chairpersons of a party resign because of one single bad poll, because we have so few polls).

yeah, that's the main issue with using the polls, but it's the best I can do without including a bunch of parties that are almost certain to not get in. South Africa would've been a nightmare to do without the restrictions I had there, and even that was a bit difficult to decide because parties like PA and RISE weren't being polled but had enough support to show up in those "what party should you support" tests.

The stances of the Flemish political parties on Israel-Palestine according to Het Nieuwsblad (newspaper)

Vooruit: (social democrat)

Vooruit advocates immediate recognition of the Palestinian state, the unconditional release of the hostages and maximum access for humanitarian aid in Gaza. They also want to impose economic sanctions on Israel.

CD&V (christian democrat)

In favor of recognition of Palestine, an essential step for them to achieve a two-state solution. CD&V also advocates economic sanctions against Israel, such as a boycott of products from the occupied territories, and wants to evaluate the association agreement between the EU and Israel.

Open VLD (liberal)

Within Open VLD there is division about the recognition of Palestine and about the embargo for products from occupied territories.

N-VA (liberal conservative, flemish nationalist)

N-VA advocates a two-state solution, but does not currently support the recognition of Palestine or economic sanctions against Israel. The party does reject the Israeli occupation policy. The party mainly wants to focus on diplomatic pressure to end the conflict.

Vlaams Belang (flemish nationalist, right-wing populist)

The party supports a two-state solution. But Flanders cannot do more than condemn war crimes on both sides, it sounds. Vlaams Belang wants to suspend developmental aid to Palestinian areas. According to the party, this will only end up with Hamas.

Groen: (green politics)

Groen wants to recognize Palestine as soon as possible. The party also wants economic sanctions against Israel and calls for a total embargo. If it were up to the Greens, Israel would no longer have a place at international events and the Belgian government could no longer coöperate with Israeli authorities.

PVDA (marxist)

The party that goes the furthest in its position is PVDA. The party talks about a genocide and wants to oblige Israel to declare a ceasefire. All ties between our country and Israel must be immediately broken.

See: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261285.1175

thanks for the info, I was wondering about it because not all parties had a specific plank on their website about it.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Also, for who will follow the elections...

i'll explain the process but around 3PM local time the last voting booths will close, usually it takes until 5pm local time before the first results come in, mostly from rurals and small sample sizes but it can give an indication of the first trends.

Usually its the evening when the bunch of the results come in, and the cities etc. That'll be around midday/afternoon for US time on sunday.

We don't have an exit poll tradition (perhaps this might be the first time we will have an exit poll), but we've never had one before. So that means that usually quite a few results have to come in before we know what direction it is going.

Likely though what i anticipate:

Gains for VB (far right) and far-left. And sizeable losses for the Greens seem almost near guaranteed. Gains for LE seem also guaranteed because their gains are consistent and outside MoE at this point.

Anything else i'm less certain off, but I suspect mild losses for NVA, mild gains for Vooruit, mild losses for OVLD, mild loss for PS and mild gain (?) for MR.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Also, for who will follow the elections...

i'll explain the process but around 3PM local time the last voting booths will close, usually it takes until 5pm local time before the first results come in, mostly from rurals and small sample sizes but it can give an indication of the first trends.

Usually its the evening when the bunch of the results come in, and the cities etc. That'll be around midday/afternoon for US time on sunday.

We don't have an exit poll tradition (perhaps this might be the first time we will have an exit poll), but we've never had one before. So that means that usually quite a few results have to come in before we know what direction it is going.

Likely though what i anticipate:

Gains for VB (far right) and far-left. And sizeable losses for the Greens seem almost near guaranteed. Gains for LE seem also guaranteed because their gains are consistent and outside MoE at this point.

Anything else i'm less certain off, but I suspect mild losses for NVA, mild gains for Vooruit, mild losses for OVLD, mild loss for PS and mild gain (?) for MR.

what will be the likely new government? The same big tent group we have now plus LE?