Who is more likely to win w/o OH?

[Likely Voter]

We are all obsessed about OH, but there are other paths to 270 for both Romney and Obama. Sure they are less likely paths, but they do exist. So which guy has the best chance for a Plan B? And what map do you think he does it with?

[Adam Griffin]

In this climate, Romney. If Obama loses OH, then he's already lost VA and most likely IA & CO. He would have to win Virginia (270) or Iowa/Colorado (272) to win.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Romney. It'd be pretty tough, though.

This is probably his likeliest path without Ohio, however unlikely it is.

[Paul Kemp]

If Obama loses Ohio, he likely loses some of the other swing states, leading to a Romney victory. On the other hand, Romney HAS to win Ohio.

Obama still hits 270 with a map like this:

[Maxwell]

If Obama loses Ohio, he likely loses some of the other swing states, leading to a Romney victory. On the other hand, Romney HAS to win Ohio.

Obama still hits 270 with a map like this:

Indiana lolno

[Paul Kemp]

If Obama loses Ohio, he likely loses some of the other swing states, leading to a Romney victory. On the other hand, Romney HAS to win Ohio.

Obama still hits 270 with a map like this:

Indiana lolno

oops I actually forgot to change that from 2008.

I'd appreciate you revoking your "lolno."

Here's one for Obama but it would be difficult, because as I said if Obama loses Ohio, it's probably a sign he's losing a few other swings...

[Antonio the Sixth]

It all comes down to whether you think States move completely independently or whether a uniform national swing is more likely. Let's see:


If Obama loses Ohio, he needs to carry NH and IA, where he is a modest favorite, as well as at least one of Virginia and Colorado, which are pure tossups.

This is a reasonable possibility if Romney significantly improves in Ohio without making any gain in other States. If you think such a situation is likely, then vote for Obama.


If Obama takes Ohio, on the other hands, Romney needs to make inroads far beyond this. He needs in his bag not only VA and CO, but also IA and NH and, particularly difficult, either Wisconsin or Nevada, where he pretty clearly trails.

This outcome is slightly more plausible if you imagine a national shift of about 3 points for Romney. Obama could still squeak out a razor-thin victory in Ohio, while being caught by surprise in either WI or NV (this, of course, requires that you trust Nevada polls). It would not be the most likely outcome, but it would be fairly conceivable in the event of a national Romney bounce. If you think it's possible, then vote Romney.


The bottom line is: both are very unlikely.