Will there be a winner by midnight PST election night?

[Likely Voter]

Right now the election is tied nationally and OH is looking closer and closer. So what are the chances that we will have a declared winner (along with concession speech from loser) by midnight on the west coast on election night?

[Franzl]

Probably will have.

[BringinTheTruth]

Comparable to 2004.  A winner by midnight EST.

[Cryptic]

Looking at the race right now I'll say no, but that could change.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm guessing about midnight CST, we'll have a winner projected.  I wouldn't mind, though, if it were midnight in Alaska (4 am EST) before we have a winner!  Like I said, I'm getting up extremely early on Tuesday and don't want to go to bed until well into Wednesday morning.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'd say that there is about a 25% chance we'll have no media-declared winner at all that night, with about a 26% chance we won't have a media-declared winner by midnight PST. The difference is due to the slim chances that Nevada or Colorado won't have been declared by then and be a State that could put either candidate over the top.  They are the only two close states that might be declared that night after midnight PST.  The ones father east if they haven't been declared by then won't be declared until mid-morning Wednesday at the earliest.

There's about a 40% chance we won't have a concession speech that night.  After what happened in 2000, I don't see either candidate giving a concession speech right after the media declares a victory in a close race, so unless the media declares before midnight EST, the losing candidate will likely have headed to bed (or at least claim to have headed to bed) and wait till morning to concede if it is clear by then.

[© tweed]

in 2004 Bush led Ohio by well over 100k and the networks didn't call it til the next day, so we could all well 'know' who won without there being a presumptive-president-elect.

[J. J.]

I think we'll know by 11:30 PM.

[anvi]

I think there will.  A lot of Romney states will have come in by 10pm, and he'll be ahead in the EV count all the way until 11, when the big west coast states come in for Obama.  But Virginia closes at 7, Ohio at 7:30, Florida and New Hampshire at 8, and Nevada and Iowa by 10, and I think enough will be counted to make projections on a sufficient number by midnight for the networks to make a call.  

[memphis]

VA, OH, and FL are all in the East. And yes, part of FL is on Central Time. Anyhow, by 3 Eastern, Obama will have won at least one of them and with that, the election.

[RogueBeaver]

Yes.

[Spanish Moss]

My guess - We'll have a projected winner about two seconds after the polls close in California.

[Mr. Morden]

If the result is something like Nate Silver's current projection (Obama popular vote margin ~1%), then no, probably not.

Even if Ohio is called for Obama early enough, it won't be enough if you still have CO, IA, NV, and VA uncalled (or called for Romney):

Colorado and Virginia are currently so close to a tossup that you're in recount territory.

Iowa: The polls don't close until 10pm Eastern.  If it's within 2%, it probably won't be called at anything resembling a reasonable hour on election night.  Look at the election night timelines from 2004 and 2008.  States that are within 2% usually aren't called for something like 7 hours or more after the polls close.

Nevada: In 2004, the margin was 2.6%, and it wasn't called until after 11am on Wednesday morning.  The officials there seem to be rather slow at counting votes.  In 2008, it was called much faster, but that's when the margin was 12.5%.  If the margin is close to the 2.6% mark from 2004, then it might, once again, take a long time to call.

You could definitely have a scenario where Ohio and New Hampshire have been called for Obama, which puts him up to 269, but we're waiting on CO, IA, NV, and VA, and so the election hasn't been called yet, because there could still theoretically be a 269-269 tie.

[J. J.]

VA, OH, and FL are all in the East. And yes, part of FL is on Central Time. Anyhow, by 3 Eastern, Obama will have won at least one of them and with that, the election.

Or lost all.  WI will also be a factor and it closes at 9:00 PM.  IA closes at 10:00 PM.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

VA, OH, and FL are all in the East. And yes, part of FL is on Central Time. Anyhow, by 3 Eastern, Obama will have won at least one of them and with that, the election.

Here's a scenario with Romney having won all three of those states and it being up to Colorado to decide.

Here's another one with Obama having won just the largest of those three and it still be left to Colorado to decide.

So while Ohio, Virginia, and Florida are important and will likely decide the election, unless Obama gets two or three of them, nothing is decided for sure.  I'll grant that if Obama wins Florida, Romney is toast, but that's because I think it highly unlikely Obama will win Florida while losing both Ohio and Virginia.

Heck, there's even a slim chance that Obama could win both Ohio and Virginia and not lock the race away.

The main point of all this is that there are quite a few credible scenarios that would leave it to Colorado and/or Nevada to call the election, so even without one of the trinity of Ohio, Virginia, and Florida being too close to call election night, it could still take until after midnight PST to call the election.