Which State will be Closest to the National Popular Vote?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 01, 2024, 03:52:47 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  Which State will be Closest to the National Popular Vote?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Which State will be Closest to the National Popular Vote?
#1
Colorado		  
#2
Florida		  
#3
Iowa		  
#4
Nevada		  
#5
New Hampshire		  
#6
Ohio		  
#7
Virginia		  
#8
Wisconsin		  
#9
Other		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: Which State will be Closest to the National Popular Vote?  (Read 1512 times)
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,003
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 18, 2012, 03:56:54 PM »
Go
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2012, 03:57:21 PM »
I'll say Iowa.
Logged
Fritz
JLD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,668
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2012, 03:58:46 PM »
Ohio.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2012, 04:04:56 PM »
I vote CO, but it could easily end up being VA, OH, FL or IA. All those states are pretty tightly packed together. Which of course means that If Romney could get a 4 point bump out of the first debate the EV map will flip to him having a big lead suddenly.
Logged
H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,226
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2012, 04:11:44 PM »
IA, just as a hunch.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,811
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2012, 07:32:12 PM »
Probably VA or IA.  This would be my tied national PV map as of today:



Think IA actually ends up better for Obama than WI now...
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,667
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2012, 08:01:02 PM »
Colorado - R+0
Florida  - D+0
Iowa   R+1
Nevada   D+2
New Hampshire   R+1
Ohio  D+1
Virginia  R+1
Wisconsin   R+1
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,635
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2012, 08:35:22 PM »
What was the closest one last time? Virginia?
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,811
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2012, 08:44:20 PM »
Quote from: Mutthole Surfers on September 18, 2012, 08:01:02 PM
Colorado - R+0
Florida  - D+0
Iowa   R+1
Nevada   D+2
New Hampshire   R+1
Ohio  D+1
Virginia  R+1
Wisconsin   R+1


Florida that far left?  Are you counting on additional 47% gaffe fallout over and above the Medicare issues?  Here's my guess for PVI:

NC R+3 - A valiant Obama effort, but state won't matter if it's close
CO R+2.5 - a lot of reasons to be anti-incumbent right now (drought, fires, libertarianism, etc.)
WI R+2 - Ryan bounce
FL R+1 - A Medicare penalty for Romney
IA R+0 - the drought causes a swing to Romney, but limited by his lack of rural appeal
VA D+0 - NOVA actually swings back right a bit, but Romney lags McCain's rural margins by more
OH D+1 - Romney's Appalachian weakness + NE OH auto jobs
NH D+2 - Don't really see much changing here
NV D+3 - Past the demographic tipping point and truly becoming a blue state, unlike CO
  
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2012, 08:50:41 PM »
Here are the battleground states from last election sorted by Obama lead relative to national average...note there are three states that fell within 7% that arent battlegrounds this time and are listed in italics

Wisconsin   6.6%
Nevada   5.2%
Pennsylvania   3.1%
Minnesota   3.0%
New Hampshire   2.4%
Iowa   2.3%
Colorado   1.7%
Virginia   -1.0%
Ohio   -2.7%
Florida   -4.5%
Indiana   -6.2%
North Carolina   -6.9%
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,003
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2012, 09:53:01 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on September 18, 2012, 08:35:22 PM
What was the closest one last time? Virginia?

Virginia in 2008, Nevada in 2004, Oregon in 2000.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.236 seconds with 14 queries.