Will Obama win the Cuban-American vote?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Historically, Cuban-Americans (what I am) have been Republican; in fact, among the most conservative minority groups, due to their affluence (most early refugees were the educated and wealthy) and anti-communism. However, in 2008, Obama won 47% of the Cuban vote in Florida; while McCain won by huge margins with older Cubans, Obama won younger Cubans in Florida.

The other major population center of Cuban-Americans is along both sides of the Hudson, specifically New York City and Hudson County, NJ. Based on my analysis of precincts in that area, Obama certainly won Cubans in Union City, West New York, etc.

With the older refugees that vote heavily Republican beginning to die off, and the Republican Party becoming less palatable to Hispanics, will Obama win Cuban-Americans this year?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Well, I see I don't have many agreeing with me.

[morgieb]

They have to wait until the Castro's die before this happens.

[Sbane]

Where are you getting that 47% of Cubans voted for Obama in 2008?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

http://www.alternet.org/story/105956/miami-dade_leaning_democratic_as_cubans_age

My mistake--Obama won 47% of Hispanics in Miami-Dade (which is where the early refugees are heavily concentrated). However, Republican strength with Cubans is mostly with those born in Cuba, and most of them are dying off. Cubans born in the US are mostly Democratic.

[Vosem]

No; first off, there's still plenty of refugees around, and second off McCain was not exactly a tip-top Republican performance. Romney will probably improve on McCain's performance at least a little; probably pulling between 54%-56% among Cubans total.

[RosettaStoned]

 No, because Cubans tend to dispise Socialist policies

[fezzyfestoon]

Floridian Cubans seem to be far more Republican than average (granted there are a LOT more of them there than anywhere else), and less so than in the past. I don't think Obama will win them simply because he'll likely lose ground among most demographics, but I think he'll gain relative to other demographics. They won't be Republican for long, that's for sure.