Republicans and the Hispanic vote

[redcommander]

McCain received 31% so there is room for Republicans to grow. I would say option 3, because of the state of the economy.

[CatoMinor]

~35%

[Torie]

If it is option 3, Obama is toast. He will lose Nevada and Colorado, and probably New Mexico.  And in really tight states, it might tip the balance too, as in PA, MI, and WI.

A larger issue might be the matter of Hispanic turnout.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

They got 38% in 2010, though that could have been a turnout thing with Cubans turning out more then other more Democratic Hispanic groups.

I think the biggest determinant will be the economy, unless someone like Tom Tancredo is the nominee, which I doubt. Most of the candidates have C's and D's on the GOP side, according to NumbersUSA, though their scoring criteria is pretty demanding (it includes reducing legal immigration and revoking birthright citizenship). You would have to look at each candidate's page on there to figure out which ones are more extreme on the issue.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Probably 30-35%. I don't see Tea Party-style Republicanism improving the Republican nominee's chances.

[NVGonzalez]

While the Hispanic voters are a bit disappointed with Obama, they will not vote for the same party killed the DREAM act and immigration reform, brought them SB 1070 in AZ and what is going on in AL

[Torie]

While the Hispanic voters are a bit disappointed with Obama, they will not vote for the same party killed the DREAM act and immigration reform, brought them SB 1070 in AZ and what is going on in AL

My anecdotal evidence is that some Hispanics are mad Obama did not slam though legislation to get the illegals on the road to being legal, when the Dems had control of the trifecta. I suspect Hispanic turnout will be down, and that Obama will be trying very hard to try to ramp it up. It should be interesting.

[California8429]

30-45 depending on the candidate and VP. There's really a large range of possibilities

[AUH2O Libertarian]

I will guess 35-40.  Probably in the upper 30s as I think conservative Hispanics (see Cubans) will turn out greater than other Hispanic groups.  Just like during the midterms.

[NVGonzalez]

While the Hispanic voters are a bit disappointed with Obama, they will not vote for the same party killed the DREAM act and immigration reform, brought them SB 1070 in AZ and what is going on in AL

My anecdotal evidence is that some Hispanics are mad Obama did not slam though legislation to get the illegals on the road to being legal, when the Dems had control of the trifecta. I suspect Hispanic turnout will be down, and that Obama will be trying very hard to try to ramp it up. It should be interesting.

Yeah it will depend though on who the Republican candidate is (Perry will drive latinos to vote in full force and someone like Brewer on the VP slot will too.) and what the Republicans do in Congress and in the states. Obama may not need to do much because the GOP may unintentionally do it.

[izixs]

30-35 was my vote. It really really depends on the Republican candidate though. Romney might be able to push that number up as might someone like Perry, Huntsman, or Pawlenty who might actually see it as important to try to get their votes (for various reasons). Others will honestly see going after them like pointless. Bachmann for instance might not be seen as a hater of them at best, but probably isn't going to be that interested in courting their vote seriously. She might hire the best campaign in the universe to fix that, but I won't count on that. (She thinks Karl Rove is to establishment)

[Jacobtm]

In 2010 Hispanics split 69-30 for Democrats.

You must be high if you think 2012 will see Republicans make gains, especially after the Georgia crackdown.

Hispanics see Republicans as racist, and Republicans do a great job of proving it time and time again.

[redcommander]

In 2010 Hispanics split 69-30 for Democrats.

You must be high if you think 2012 will see Republicans make gains, especially after the Georgia crackdown.

Hispanics see Republicans as racist, and Republicans do a great job of proving it time and time again.

I don't see how enforcing immigration laws makes Republicans racist. What is the alternative? Let the unlimited movement of people into the country like many Democrats support? Democrats basically want to encourage millions of overwhelmingly poor people into the United States, because it aids them electorally. People all too easily label Republicans racist, when they themselves don't provide a solution to a problem which is basically extremely unique to the United States. Most nations have problems with illegal immigration, but their economies are not as reliant on the exploitation of poor people as the United States.

[ag]

I don't see how enforcing immigration laws makes Republicans racist.

You may not see it, but, given the nature of those immigration laws, it is generally perceived by a lot of Hispanics as being anti-Hispanic.

And, if you think about it again, it's not hard to see why. The laws are, basically, designed to keep Mexicans out of the country. As the current orthodoxy, at least in the Republican party, is that any change in the nature of those laws is treasonous, is there much surprise that, at least Mexican-Americans are not happy with calls for their improved enforcement?

[Umengus]

if perry is the gop candidate, between 35-40 % (like Bush)

[Tender Branson]

35% is almost certainly the maximum.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In 2010 Hispanics split 69-30 for Democrats.

You must be high if you think 2012 will see Republicans make gains, especially after the Georgia crackdown.

Hispanics see Republicans as racist, and Republicans do a great job of proving it time and time again.

Where did you get 69-30 from? The CNN exit poll  had the Republicans at 38%. In 2008, McCain got 33%. I don't see how it could have been 69-30 in 2010.

I don't see how enforcing immigration laws makes Republicans racist.

You may not see it, but, given the nature of those immigration laws, it is generally perceived by a lot of Hispanics as being anti-Hispanic.

And, if you think about it again, it's not hard to see why. The laws are, basically, designed to keep Mexicans out of the country. As the current orthodoxy, at least in the Republican party, is that any change in the nature of those laws is treasonous, is there much surprise that, at least Mexican-Americans are not happy with calls for their improved enforcement?

Those laws are, especially the one's mandating E-verify, designed to provide employers a way to actually check the status of prospective workers, so that they can actually comply with the existing law. Was Obama's promise to crackdown on employers, just populist BS with no teeth? Because obviously if he was going to, it would be met with the same criticisms that Republicans are getting for Georgia, would it not?  

If the Hispanic community at-large thinks that such reasonable enforcement measure are the equivalent of racism against them, then we have a serious problem that goes beyond getting votes in an election.

The only alternative to enforcement is to do nothing. Another compromise bill will end up like the last several such immigration laws because any time a serious enforcement effort is underway it get's squashed by political pressure. I don't see why the US should be in a de-facto position of having no immigration laws by virture of their non-enforcement. That has been the situation for the last several decades and it hasn't really benefited anyone except agri-business and certain other sectors.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans have little to offer. Hispanics are still heavily Catholic, so they are unlikely to think sympathetically of any Protestant fundamentalist who wears his religion on his sleeve. As a lapsed Catholic, Tim Pawlenty would do badly with Catholic voters of any kind. Rick Perry is a fundie nutcase, and if his popularity is underwater in Texas, just remember what he must be doing to lose the support of Hispanics in Texas -- and elsewhere.

Republican anti-intellectualism is likely to hit hard at people who see formal education as the only possible exit from poverty or the means of avoiding it. Hispanics may not be your idea of an ethnic group that exudes intellectualism -- but one doesn't need to be an intellectual to be a schoolteacher.  One does need education, though.

Republicans have linked themselves to xenophobia that becomes anti-Hispanic in some states (notably Arizona and Georgia). Such could cost the Republicans an open Senate seat in Arizona -- one that they can't afford to lose. If the Obama campaign chooses to contest the GOP in Arizona, then the first Tuesday in November, 2012 could be a bad night for the GOP.

Republicans can essentially write off Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico as possible wins if the Hispanic vote turns up at the voting booths.  Such effectively forces Republicans to chase votes in Iowa, New Hampshire,  and Pennsylvania, which look winnable now but might not be so easy as they look -- while absolutely having to win three of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia.   

   

[Lupo]

Aren't Hispanic voters mostly natural-born American citizens or gained citizenship through proper channels?  If so, why would they consider Republican efforts to combat illegal immigration to be racist? 

Has the Hispanic-American population been polled on this issue?

[ag]

Those laws are, especially the one's mandating E-verify, designed to provide employers a way to actually check the status of prospective workers, so that they can actually comply with the existing law.

When I am talking about immigration laws being anti-Mexican, I don't mean merely the enforcement laws, such as the e-Verify, but, actually, laws regulating LEGAL immigration. These are, essentially, designed to prevent Mexicans immigrating into the US legally. Once you realize that, it is easier to understand, why the enforcement provisions are so unloved: they are enforcing the laws that are viewed as directed against the community at large.

[greenforest32]

While the Hispanic voters are a bit disappointed with Obama, they will not vote for the same party killed the DREAM act and immigration reform, brought them SB 1070 in AZ and what is going on in AL

[justW353]

While the Hispanic voters are a bit disappointed with Obama, they will not vote for the same party killed the DREAM act and immigration reform, brought them SB 1070 in AZ and what is going on in AL

[pbrower2a]

Aren't Hispanic voters mostly natural-born American citizens or gained citizenship through proper channels?  If so, why would they consider Republican efforts to combat illegal immigration to be racist? 

Has the Hispanic-American population been polled on this issue?

An illegal alien might be an in-law.

[TheGlobalizer]

~38%.  If a Hispanic VP is on the ticket, ~55%.