Shuler considering leaving Congress

[minionofmidas]

It is a confusing article, but unless a black VAP majority district can be drawn connecting clear communities of interest, and the GOP map does not, and goes farther afield, I don't really see a problem with the GOP map myself.  The SCOTUS decisions are hardly consistent in any event, and it continually tacks from one map review to the next. I assume that if the DOJ intervenes here, the matter will be going to SCOTUS, and Justice Kennedy will get to elaborate on, and revise and extend, his Bonilla decision. 

Basically. I don't see what adding Durham instead of Raleigh Blacks will accomplish for the Democrats, either. So the White Dem pack seat moves a little further east. *Shrug* Maybe you could fight some of the coastal rural counties dropped back in, and that upsets the delicate math in eastern NC somewhat, but this article raises no issues that would affect the basic outline of the plan there (much the same is true if the Lumbee vote is held to be illegally diluted, which probably won't happen either).
As to the 12th, pish tosh. If its last version passed the Supremes, the new one will too. And if the decisions about the second-to-last one are explicitly reversed in letter, that would just clear up redistricting case law a little.

[krazen1211]

Basically. I don't see what adding Durham instead of Raleigh Blacks will accomplish for the Democrats, either. So the White Dem pack seat moves a little further east. *Shrug* Maybe you could fight some of the coastal rural counties dropped back in, and that upsets the delicate math in eastern NC somewhat, but this article raises no issues that would affect the basic outline of the plan there (much the same is true if the Lumbee vote is held to be illegally diluted, which probably won't happen either).
As to the 12th, pish tosh. If its last version passed the Supremes, the new one will too. And if the decisions about the second-to-last one are explicitly reversed in letter, that would just clear up redistricting case law a little.

His argument basically boils down to that a Durham link blocks all the Republicans in North Wake County from the 13th. Then he puts all those Republicans in the safely Dem 4th. That knocks off a collective 10% from the Dem packs, thus 'forcing' a 4th Dem district in and around Robeson and weakening the other GOP districts, by overpacking the 3rd as it is now.

Basically, its stupid mapping. There are numerous options, such as using a double cross touch point to connect the black district to Durham, and the Nothern Wake Republicans to the Piedmont. Alternatively, they would swing the 2nd district up to grab Northern Wake Republicans, as well as Southern Wake Republicans, and pull it out of Sampson County Dem areas.

[minionofmidas]

Strictly speaking he says it makes it much harder. Which is true, actually - I hadn't really looked at that quite ugly 13th district enough before. It's indeed certainly not impossible. Apart from a double cross, you could also just do a corridor along the district's edges... or you could even get the Black district to Durham via a corridor through Raleigh.
Of course, were a court to decide that a 1st like his must be drawn, that court would also then redraw the neighboring districts itself. In which case R's might well end up finding they'd have been better off just conceding the 7th to McIntyre. But it's quite unlikely that that will happen. The map just is not egregious enough on its face, and the issue about which counties are "protected" is too arcane and not really the relevant determinant anyways (except for what needs preclearance and what does not).

[Landslide Lyndon]

Torie, Lewis, thanks for the help.

[Joe Biden 2020]

There goes another Blue Dog.  With Dan Boren leaving the House and now Heath Shuler, the Blue Dog Caucus is getting a lot smaller, and I imagine will get even smaller in January 2013 if 2012 is another Republican year.

The new California map may breed some new Blue Dogs.  It has a fair number of marginal seats, in which the standard issue very liberal California Democrat would be vulnerable. But of course that requires voters to be strategic in their primary choices, something that rarely happens in California. Partisan voters on the left coast usually prefer deep blue and red, and eschew pastels.

To me, the words California and Blue Dog don't belong in the same sentence.

[Holmes]

That may be because you have a narrow understanding of California politics.