Election of 1860

[Storebought]

Remember that Douglas was nearly as unpopular with Southerners as Lincoln was

[A18]

Lincoln got majorities in the north, so I guess he would have won no matter what, despite getting under 40% of the popular vote.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Douglas would win easily.  Keep in mind that Douglas spent the last part of the campaign trying to keep the South from going out.  If only Douglas and Lincoln are the choices, Douglas would be able to count on the south and he would be able to concentrate on the butternut states of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, which Lincoln only had bare majorities in and likely win them.

[Bugs]

Lincoln was hated in the south, while Douglas did have a following in the north, so Douglas seems to be the favorite.  I frequently read too much into these scenarios, however, and I want to know why Breckinridge is out of the picture.  Was it because southern Democrats decided to accept the regular platform without any protection of slavery in the terrirories, or was it because they convinced the regular Democrats to include it?  If southerners had simply just given up on the territories, they'd have probably been more adamantly opposed to a Lincoln presidency.  Otherwise Linclon might have won, but even then it's not certain.  Douglas wasn't terribly popular in the south either.  How about Lincoln/Hamlin versus Breckinridge/Douglas?

[Storebought]

Lincoln was hated in the south, while Douglas did have a following in the north, so Douglas seems to be the favorite.  I frequently read too much into these scenarios, however, and I want to know why Breckinridge is out of the picture.  Was it because southern Democrats decided to accept the regular platform without any protection of slavery in the terrirories, or was it because they convinced the regular Democrats to include it?  If southerners had simply just given up on the territories, they'd have probably been more adamantly opposed to a Lincoln presidency.  Otherwise Linclon might have won, but even then it's not certain.  Douglas wasn't terribly popular in the south either.  How about Lincoln/Hamlin versus Breckinridge/Douglas?

I actually prefer not to include my own thoughts in a poll, but here is a simple scenario on why there were only two candidates:

Bell isn't included b/c the tired old Whig couldn't make up his mind on whether to bother running for president. He instructs his former Whigs to split the difference between the Democrats and the new Republicans.

Breckinridge is rejected b/c he simply lost the Democratic caucus to Douglas. Breckinridge is too extreme and scary and inept a candidate against the one man machine Douglas.

Lincoln won the GOP primary b/c he was the most moderate candidate among them. No way would the Republicans run a Seward if their opposition is Douglas.

[Bugs]

The more I look at the results, the harder it is to see how Lincoln could have lost, because he had a substantial electoral majority in the actual scenario.  The absence of botb Breckinridge and Bell wouldn't have caused Douglas to win any of the states that Lincoln actually won.  Douglas probably would have won most of Breckinridge's states, being a Democrat and all, but even if Lincoln didn't add any of Bell's or Breckinridge's states, he'd still have won.  There was simply too many electoral votes in the populous north for the Democrats to overcome.

[Erc]

on the face of it, the election doesn't seem that unfair...

But take into account the split in the Dems, and the Democrat ticket wins every state south of the Mason Dixon Line, plus the West Coast and NJ, with majorities in all of them.  Despite an 8-pt advantage in the PV, they still lose.  Throw in Bell (a Whig, but certainly not a Republican--probably took more votes away from Douglas than anyone)--and look at it.

The Anti-Lincoln Ticket wins 60.42 % of the vote.  That's a landslide of McGovernian proportions.  But since Lincoln has the north in his grasp, the North can outvote the South every bloody time--because of the Electoral college system.  No wonder the South seceded...