Obama vs. Bachmann vs. Trump

[Tender Branson]

Huckabee, Daniels and Palin decide not to run in June, Bachmann then wins a stunning victory in Iowa with big support from Social Conservatives. Mitt Romney only barely wins in New Hampshire, while Bachmann also wins in South Carolina and Florida, with Barbour second and Romney only third.

Donald Trump does poorly with mostly 5th places and then runs as an Independent.

On the Friday before Election Day 2012, the BLS announces that the unemployment rate is 7.7% and that 378.000 jobs were created in the month of October.

How does the election play out and who would you vote for ?

[Tender Branson]

It should also be noted that most national polls before the election have Obama's approval rating at 47%, with about 45% disapproving.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama wins everything but NE-03.

[Rowan]

Obama wins everything but NE-03.

Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming?

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Indiana and a good chance of the Deep South as well.

[Yelnoc]

Obama wins everything but NE-03.

Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming?

Trump pulls enough from these states to throw them to Obama I would think.

[opebo]

Should be the same result in terms of states, but slightly different percentages:

[Landslide Lyndon]

If unemployment falls so rapidly then Obama's approvals will be much higher.

[King]

I said Obama, but if he's way ahead in the polls I'd probably just vote for Trump so I could say that I did.

[Tender Branson]

5 Democrats here would vote for Bachmann ?



LOL

[Bull Moose Base]

That race would be hilarious but unsuspenseful.  A more intriguing question comes out of the premise about Bachmann's chance to be nominated?  If Bachmann wins Iowa and Romney wins NH weakly, will the GOP establishment, fearing Bachmann, rally to Romney or, disliking Romney/fearing his inability to beat Bachmann, amp up 11th hour calls for someone else to jump in?  (Can candidates still jump in a la RFK post New Hampshire?) Or more realistically, rally to promote Pawlenty or someone in SC or FL (if he's still in race)?  And if it comes down to Romney vs Bachmann, what do Tea leaders, Grover Norquist, Eric Erickson etc do?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Option 7.

[feeblepizza]

Bachmann (I). Trump really seems more terrible the more I think of it.

[specific_name]

I'm thinking Trump does poorly in this scenario, but draws off enough from Bachmann to cause her defeat by narrow margins in states she would otherwise win. A subdued Perot in 1992 effect. Overall anti-incumbent sentiment would be spread out between the two candidates, leading Obama to win handily. Bachmann is also pretty insane so barring a new recession I can't imagine her winning the general. Trump is about 1.5% on my map.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I'd rather burn my ballot.

[Yelnoc]

So where does Trump's support come from?  It seems like the Tea Party would rally around Bachmann.  Does he go back to his roots and try to pick up dissatisfied Romney supporters and the odd independent vote?  Under that scenario, I would expect something like this.

The closest state is South Carolina, which Obama won by .03%

[CatoMinor]

NOTA (I)

[Lief 🗽]

I think you guys are massively over-estimating how much support Bachmann would win. No way would she get anywhere near 100 electoral votes.

[Yelnoc]

I think you guys are massively over-estimating how much support Bachmann would win. No way would she get anywhere near 100 electoral votes.

Assuming she has the support of the Republican Party and Trumps campaign stays under 5%, I think she can count on cracking 100.  America is too polarized for anything else.  Now if the party splits between Trump and Bachmann, Obama wins basically every electoral vote.  I just don't see how Trump could get such widespread support when running against a fellow Tea Partier.  Obama vs. Romney vs. Trump would be a much more interesting scenario.

[izixs]

This might be the only scenario where a map like this could happen:



Indeed, a more realistic situation would be Romney vs Obama vs Trumped. Romney would win states, Trump might pull off a weird win in say Alaska or oddly enough Maine (he'd be playing the LePage side of things there and thus could pull an upset).

But with two folks expressing extremist views and conspiracy theories? That would get old real fast and everyone outside the 30% die hard Republican base would be turned off by Bachmann and Trump, and  that fraction of the country they'd be having a hard time deciding which they like better. Especially if it was becoming obvious to them that who ever they backed was going to loose. Then its anybody's game as to which of them gets the share of the Republican base and that's about it.

Don't think Perot here. Think Goldwater type of election even if Obama doesn't even hit 50% of the popular vote.

[Stranger in a strange land]

This might be the only scenario where a map like this could happen:



Indeed, a more realistic situation would be Romney vs Obama vs Trumped. Romney would win states, Trump might pull off a weird win in say Alaska or oddly enough Maine (he'd be playing the LePage side of things there and thus could pull an upset).

But with two folks expressing extremist views and conspiracy theories? That would get old real fast and everyone outside the 30% die hard Republican base would be turned off by Bachmann and Trump, and  that fraction of the country they'd be having a hard time deciding which they like better. Especially if it was becoming obvious to them that who ever they backed was going to loose. Then its anybody's game as to which of them gets the share of the Republican base and that's about it.

Don't think Perot here. Think Goldwater type of election even if Obama doesn't even hit 50% of the popular vote.

Bachmann would win OK, AR, and LA because Trump has basically no appeal there, plus she'd win ID and UT because of the Mormon Identity vote.

[Associate Justice PiT]

This might be the only scenario where a map like this could happen:



Indeed, a more realistic situation would be Romney vs Obama vs Trumped. Romney would win states, Trump might pull off a weird win in say Alaska or oddly enough Maine (he'd be playing the LePage side of things there and thus could pull an upset).

But with two folks expressing extremist views and conspiracy theories? That would get old real fast and everyone outside the 30% die hard Republican base would be turned off by Bachmann and Trump, and  that fraction of the country they'd be having a hard time deciding which they like better. Especially if it was becoming obvious to them that who ever they backed was going to loose. Then its anybody's game as to which of them gets the share of the Republican base and that's about it.

Don't think Perot here. Think Goldwater type of election even if Obama doesn't even hit 50% of the popular vote.

Bachmann would win OK, AR, and LA because Trump has basically no appeal there, plus she'd win ID and UT because of the Mormon Identity vote.

     True, though a Trump Independent candidacy is still by far the most likely scenario for a Democratic victory in those states in 2012, or in the next 10 years for that matter.

[izixs]

I think you guys should look at the url of the map image I provided. It might provide a clue as to the percentage. :-p