Unemployment rate by Party conventions 2012?

[Likely Voter]

this week's job report had unemployment down 0.1% at 8.9%. This is down from the peak of 10.1 October 2009.  Obviously unemployment is a key factor in the 2012, possibly more than the candidate (unless GOP nominates someone like Palin). So what do you think unemployment will be by the political conventions in 2012? (when most of the country starts paying attention to the race)

And what effect do you think it will have on the race?

[Yelnoc]

We're headed for a double-dip recession.  Expect gas to be $5 per gallon by the end of the summer because of the middle east crisis.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

9.4%

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

10.7%

[America™]

If it is 9.8+ Obama is gone.

[pbrower2a]

Probably about 8%. There is no speculative boom that makes a crash possible. Unemployment is likely to fall despite the paralysis of Congress.

Energy pinch? Probably over by then. Moammar Qaddafi is likely to be in Hell by then. For oil prices to be in the stratosphere in 2012, Saudi Arabia would have to be ablaze with revolution.

[Bull Moose Base]

GOP austerity gives Obama and Democrats a place to lay blame if it doesn't continue to drop.  Sort of feels like part of the GOP's motive is to keep unemployment up frankly. We're probably looking at a '84 or '96 unsuspenseful re-election if the current trend continues though. Map would probably be more or less the same as '08.

[Tender Branson]

Around 7.5%

Closer to 7% on election day 2012.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We're headed for a double-dip recession.  Expect gas to be $5 per gallon by the end of the summer because of the middle east crisis.

There are no economic indicators of a double-dip recession.

While I would love to see the US have to pay the same prices for fuel as the rest of us - there will be a military incursion into Libya before the oil supplies become too affected. However, if the US is in the position of paying that much more... holy God... how much will the rest of us be paying?!

On the question...

I'm guessing somewhere between 8.2 and 7.8%

[Dgov]

Depends--We've got plenty of people in the "no longer looking for work" category, which means that any real reduction in unemployment is going to take a while to get reflected in those numbers.

[DrScholl]

It will be below 8.5% and maybe in the 7% range.

[Yelnoc]

We're headed for a double-dip recession.  Expect gas to be $5 per gallon by the end of the summer because of the middle east crisis.

There are no economic indicators of a double-dip recession.

While I would love to see the US have to pay the same prices for fuel as the rest of us - there will be a military incursion into Libya before the oil supplies become too affected. However, if the US is in the position of paying that much more... holy God... how much will the rest of us be paying?!

On the question...

I'm guessing somewhere between 8.2 and 7.8%

Saudi Arabia is starting to experience some unrest.  Imagine if, next summer, Rebels are in control of most of the country but the Saudis are still fighting on in certain areas.

[opebo]

Saudi Arabia is starting to experience some unrest.  Imagine if, next summer, Rebels are in control of most of the country but the Saudis are still fighting on in certain areas.

If oil does not flow from Saudi Arabia, we won't be worried about who is president - we'll be worried about not getting eaten.

[Bull Moose Base]

The only Republican with any chance at nomination (though it's debatable he does) with any foreign policy experience is Huntsman, who represented the Obama Administration.  I suppose one could argue Gingrich has some credibility on international relations.  I'm skeptical an international crisis helps the GOP.

[You kip if you want to...]

September 2012

Media: "OBAMA, unemployment is RISING!"
Obama: "Well yeah, Republicans in Congress are destroying public sector jobs, leading to even further private sector struggle."

[Psychic Octopus]

Unknowable, so it's pretty useless trying to predict it. But still, someone will bump this thread around the party conventions just to laugh at whoever was wrong.