What is the likelihood ...

[Tender Branson]

What do you think ?

[You kip if you want to...]

If the election is close enough, which I think it could be, it wouldn't be suprising to see one of the first two.

[Nichlemn]

Either seem rather improbable but Kirk for 2 months seems more likely than the inverse because:

- Voting differently in the special election implies you care about the lame duck session. Since this will almost certainly have more Democrats than the next Congress, it doesn't make much sense for our hypothetical moderate to want the Democrats to be able to get through last minute legislature, but want Republicans to win the Senate. On the other hand, it's plausible you might want to stop last minute legislation by the Democrats, but are otherwise happy enough with a small Democratic majority to vote Alexi for the 6 year term.

- The special election will likely have undervotes from people confused as to why the "same" election is listed twice. I would imagine that such undervoters would be disproportionally uneducated or young (and hence Democratic).

[Dgov]

It seems rather unlikely but Kirk for 2 months seems more likely than the inverse because:

- Voting differently in the special election implies you care about the lame duck session. Since this will almost certainly have more Democrats than the next Congress, it doesn't make much sense for our hypothetical moderate to want the Democrats to be able to get through last minute legislature, but want Republicans to win the Senate. On the other hand, it's plausible you might want to stop last minute legislation by the Democrats, but are otherwise happy enough with a small Democratic majority to vote Alexi for the 6 year term.
- The special election will likely have undervotes from people confused as to why the "same" election is listed twice. I would imagine that such undervoters would be disproportionally uneducated or young (and hence Democratic).

Kirk also made a point of this in his campaign, promising to block any lame-duck legislation, so that might swing some votes towards him that might otherwise have gone to the G-man.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Important question: How do the races appear on the ballot?

[Franzl]

Important question: How do the races appear on the ballot?

At least in Madison County (I imagine it's the same everywhere in IL, not entirely sure though), the 6-year election is listed FIRST.