Who will be elected Russia's President in 2012?

[ag]

Guys, we won't know anything until GMantis gets in here and explains the truth for us.

I'm sorry, unlike you I don't pretend to know things I'm ignorant about. I do believe in asking questions, though. An easy one, for a start: is Putin permitted by the Constitution to run in 2012?

Yes, of course. Only consecutive re-election is prohibited. And, starting 2012 the presidential term is extended from 4 to 6 years

[ag]

My take on it. Medvedev will make some effort to stay. Whether we here about it or not is another matter, but he will try. Most likely he will fail and Putin will come back, but that's not guaranteed.

Now, one thing to be clear: I, actually, don't really believe the regime is very stable. It will crash, and crash in a rather spectacular way, just unexpectedly and suddenly. An electoral-type event might be a catalyst, but who really knows.

The real evil of the regime is that they've done everything in their power to ensure that once they crash, sh**t happens.

[Хahar 🤔]

electoral-type event

I like that term very much. Who coined it?

[GMantis]

Guys, we won't know anything until GMantis gets in here and explains the truth for us.

I'm sorry, unlike you I don't pretend to know things I'm ignorant about. I do believe in asking questions, though. An easy one, for a start: is Putin permitted by the Constitution to run in 2012?

Yes, of course. Only consecutive re-election is prohibited. And, starting 2012 the presidential term is extended from 4 to 6 years

I see that you're right. So nothing would stop him from being reelected in 2018?

Лысый means bald and волосатый means hairy. It can be extended even further back.

[ag]

electoral-type event

I like that term very much. Who coined it?

They've been using it in Russian (I think I know which Russian political scientist introduced it - at least, he's been using it for a while). But translation into English is mine

[ag]

Guys, we won't know anything until GMantis gets in here and explains the truth for us.

I'm sorry, unlike you I don't pretend to know things I'm ignorant about. I do believe in asking questions, though. An easy one, for a start: is Putin permitted by the Constitution to run in 2012?

Yes, of course. Only consecutive re-election is prohibited. And, starting 2012 the presidential term is extended from 4 to 6 years

I see that you're right. So nothing would stop him from being reelected in 2018?

Nothing. Two consecutive 6-year terms are allowed now. If he gets elected in 2012 he may be president till 2024.

[The Mikado]

I doubt even Vladimir Putin thinks he can keep this act going for a quarter-century.

[ag]

I doubt even Vladimir Putin thinks he can keep this act going for a quarter-century.

But what else can he do? If he looses power, he has to go into exhile (if he is given enough time to do it). If he doesn't he will either die fast or go to prison (and, probably, die fast there).  And, though he speaks German, I am not sure he can be sure of avoiding prosecution there for spying, once he is a mere refugee He created a system from which he himself has no safe exit. As somebody said in a different setting, he is riding a tiger and he knows it - but try getting off the beast without being eaten alive

I almost pity the SOB. He has created a regime that commits him to screwing his homeland for the rest of his life at liberty

[Bo]

I doubt even Vladimir Putin thinks he can keep this act going for a quarter-century.

How do you think many Middle Eastern dictators (besides Saddam Hussein) have managed to pull it off for that long?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I doubt even Vladimir Putin thinks he can keep this act going for a quarter-century.

How do you think many Middle Eastern dictators (besides Saddam Hussein) have managed to pull it off for that long?

Gaddafi? 40 years in power.

Old Al-Assad? 30 years in power.

Mubarak? In power since 1981.

Saleh? In power since 1979.

[Bo]

I doubt even Vladimir Putin thinks he can keep this act going for a quarter-century.

How do you think many Middle Eastern dictators (besides Saddam Hussein) have managed to pull it off for that long?

Gaddafi? 40 years in power.

Old Al-Assad? 30 years in power.

Mubarak? In power since 1981.

Saleh? In power since 1979.

Thanks for strengtening my point, Kalwejt.

[The Mikado]

Russia's a very different country.  Putin's whole deal is that he brings prosperity back to Russia.  Every economic dip is a dent in his credibility.

[Gustaf]

No one will be elected. Medvedev might be "elected" though.