If Derek Chauvin got off George Floyd, I believe Trump gets re-elected, even with all the Covid-stuff. The BLM protests in the summer really hurt the Republicans and Trump. For some time, the protests made Covid a secondary topic.
Why? What does that have to do with Trump and Republicans? They weren’t the ones who killed Floyd.
Also that led to the defund the police thing which one could argue helped trump and the GOP down ballot.
It brought the subject of racism into the forefront, and historically, the Democrats’ bread and butter criticism of Republicans is that Republicans = racists. The race riots motivated typical-moderates and non-participants to vote Democrat, out of sympathy for Blacks. The subject caused sports leagues, store brands, streaming music services, and other odd places to issue statements in favor of BLM.
The backlash against defund the police wasn’t substantial. Polls in the summer showed 70-80% approval for BLM, a group that openly pushed defund the police. Most people became anti-police than otherwise, which again favored Democrats.