You guys seem to be underestimating demographic changes. Texas keep inexorably getting closer every cycle. Cruz barely won last time. I'd say there's a 50% chance he loses a rematch.
2018 was also really good year, overall, for Democrats. The overall environment at the time helped Beto. The party that controls the White House usually fares poorly in the midterm elections.
Anyways -- 2024 will be an election year for the Presidency. So the results of a Cruz vs Beto matchup would depend on what's going on in the Presidential race.
Overall, I think Cruz still gets a small win.
