2024 rematch: Cruz vs O'Rourke

[Ferguson97]

What would a rematch of this Senate race look like in 2024?

[Agonized-Statism]

With further demographic changes and Cruz's Cancún scandal, O'Rourke may have a chance, but his "Hell yes" comment makes that a very, very slim chance.

[Roll Roons]

With further demographic changes and Cruz's Cancún scandal, O'Rourke may have a chance, but his "Hell yes" comment makes that a very, very slim chance.

Cruz probably is weaker than Generic R, but I don't think anyone cares about the Cancun incident anymore.

[If my soul was made of stone]

O'Rourke is a spent force who wasted all of his relevant political capital making himself hostile to the Texan audience, so despite further demographic change and Cruz's obvious liabilities I don't think it would look very different from the presidential topline of 2024. Without any clear sense of national trends by that point, I'd hazard a guess of about Cruz +6, with trends continuing in the direction that they did from 2016-2020 but at a slower pace. I'd much rather have Joaquin Castro run at that point.

[Non Swing Voter]

You guys seem to be underestimating demographic changes.  Texas keep inexorably getting closer every cycle.  Cruz barely won last time.  I'd say there's a 50% chance he loses a rematch.

[Mail-order President]

"Hell yes we're gonna take your AR-15s"

O'Rourke loses by more than last time.

[MATTROSE94]

Ted Cruz by a 50-49 margin. Beto O’Rourke dominates in the suburbs and urban areas, but the Hispanic trends in the Rio Grande Valley are enough for Ted Cruz to eke out another term. Regardless, Ted Cruz is toast come 2030.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

In before "Hell yes we'll take..."

Nevermind, it's already been mentioned twice

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, an election 4 prez, which this board is technically about, would be won by O'Rourke. Cruz doesn't have national appeal or at least not enough to win 270 EVs.

[Del Tachi]

You guys seem to be underestimating demographic changes.  Texas keep inexorably getting closer every cycle.  Cruz barely won last time.  I'd say there's a 50% chance he loses a rematch.

Texas swinging R between 2018 and 2020 summarily disproves the point you're trying to make.   

Cruz may run behind Generic R, but I doubt a Republican is losing TX statewide with presidential year turnout.  O'Rourke also has more baggage than he did in 2018. 

[Redban]

You guys seem to be underestimating demographic changes.  Texas keep inexorably getting closer every cycle.  Cruz barely won last time.  I'd say there's a 50% chance he loses a rematch.

2018 was also really good year, overall, for Democrats. The overall environment at the time helped Beto. The party that controls the White House usually fares poorly in the midterm elections.


Anyways -- 2024 will be an election year for the Presidency. So the results of a Cruz vs Beto matchup would depend on what's going on in the Presidential race.

Overall, I think Cruz still gets a small win.

[Ferguson97]

You guys seem to be underestimating demographic changes.  Texas keep inexorably getting closer every cycle.  Cruz barely won last time.  I'd say there's a 50% chance he loses a rematch.

2018 was also really good year, overall, for Democrats. The overall environment at the time helped Beto. The party that controls the White House usually fares poorly in the midterm elections.


Anyways -- 2024 will be an election year for the Presidency. So the results of a Cruz vs Beto matchup would depend on what's going on in the Presidential race.

Overall, I think Cruz still gets a small win.

If there were a presidential/senate split, what result do you think would be more likely? Biden/Cruz or O'Rourke/GOP?

[Redban]

You guys seem to be underestimating demographic changes.  Texas keep inexorably getting closer every cycle.  Cruz barely won last time.  I'd say there's a 50% chance he loses a rematch.

2018 was also really good year, overall, for Democrats. The overall environment at the time helped Beto. The party that controls the White House usually fares poorly in the midterm elections.


Anyways -- 2024 will be an election year for the Presidency. So the results of a Cruz vs Beto matchup would depend on what's going on in the Presidential race.

Overall, I think Cruz still gets a small win.

If there were a presidential/senate split, what result do you think would be more likely? Biden/Cruz or O'Rourke/GOP?

O'Rourke / GOP is more likely then Biden / Cruz

If Biden is able to carry Texas on a presidential level, then the Dems had a good performance. In contrast, I can see the GOP presidential candidate running a little ahead of Cruz, the way Abott ran ahead of Cruz by a lot in 2018

[Alben Barkley]

If Beto had never embarrassed himself by running for president and flopping and never made those thermonuclear takes on guns, I'd say he has a chance.

As it is, no.

You guys seem to be underestimating demographic changes.  Texas keep inexorably getting closer every cycle.  Cruz barely won last time.  I'd say there's a 50% chance he loses a rematch.

2018 was also really good year, overall, for Democrats. The overall environment at the time helped Beto. The party that controls the White House usually fares poorly in the midterm elections.


Anyways -- 2024 will be an election year for the Presidency. So the results of a Cruz vs Beto matchup would depend on what's going on in the Presidential race.

Overall, I think Cruz still gets a small win.

If there were a presidential/senate split, what result do you think would be more likely? Biden/Cruz or O'Rourke/GOP?

O'Rourke / GOP is more likely then Biden / Cruz

If Biden is able to carry Texas on a presidential level, then the Dems had a good performance. In contrast, I can see the GOP presidential candidate running a little ahead of Cruz, the way Abott ran ahead of Cruz by a lot in 2018

Depends on who the GOP nominee is. If it's Trump again, I could see him underperforming even Cruz like he did Cornyn. If it's someone else, there's a better chance Cruz underperforms the nominee.

And of course, it's possible (if not very likely) that Cruz IS the nominee, in which case there will be an entirely different senate candidate.

[Schiff for Senate]

Cruz would (unfortunately) win reelection. Yes, TX is trending bluer, and O'Rourke nearly beat him in 2018 - but remember that 2018 was a Democratic wave year and 2024 may not be one, and O'Rourke's probably alienated Texas voters (who I think are the most pro-gun of any state other than Oklahoma and a few rural ones) with his "Hell yes, we're going to take your AR-15" rifle. Now if I lived in Texas I'd certainly vote for O'Rourke - I strongly support gun control (and a ban on some types of guns), and Cruz is one of the worst senators. But the trouble is that Texas voter support guns, and it seems to be a pervasive element of every day life in Texas - it seems that Texans, including Democrats, love to own guns, and several own multiple. The AR-15 comment may have been good to a national Democratic audience, but to pro-gun voters in Texas (who I imagine form a majority), O'Rourke has been permanently alienated, and some moderate suburbanites who support guns (I imagine the majority do) and voted for O'Rourke in 2018 will likely revert to Cruz.

[here2view]

Cruz wins 51-48. O'Rourke wins Collin County and does better than Biden 2020 along the border, but not as good as he did in 2018.

[S019]

It'd be a very competitive race, I really don't buy that the AR-15 comments will make him DOA, Cruz has said toxic things too, so I don't understand why the gun comments would be salient, but those wouldn't. Anyways, O'Rourke would attract lots of money to a changing state and one that is clearly moving blue. Tossup, with the slightest Cruz edge, for now.

[Alben Barkley]

It'd be a very competitive race, I really don't buy that the AR-15 comments will make him DOA, Cruz has said toxic things too, so I don't understand why the gun comments would be salient, but those wouldn't. Anyways, O'Rourke would attract lots of money to a changing state and one that is clearly moving blue. Tossup, with the slightest Cruz edge, for now.

1. It’s Texas. Beto literally saying he wants to take your guns is about the most politically toxic take possible in Texas. It’s worse than “defund the police.” He’s outright supporting gun confiscation in a state FULL of gun owners, including some swing voters. He totally torpedoed any chance of winning statewide in Texas as long as the state is remotely recognizable with those remarks. Which absolutely would be exploited HEAVILY by Cruz’s campaign. Beto could NEVER get away from them. They’d be played around the clock in ads.

2. However unfair it is, Democrats seem to be held to a higher standard than Republicans. Cruz can get away with saying controversial things much more easily. In part because it fires up the base in a still Republican-leaning state, in part because expectations are just lower for him, and in part because I don’t think he’s ever said anything that’s as both toxic and easily exploitable as Beto’s gun comments.

3. IT’S TEXAS. Trending blue it might be, slowly, but even if it managed to flip against Trump or a Trumpist on the presidential level, Beto would have to win over at least as many swing voters as the presidential ticket. Unlikely he can with those comments.

Also I’m not sure Beto would still be a fundraising giant. Pretty sure he’s widely seen as a washed up has-been thanks to his dismally failed presidential run. He’s longer the exciting new guy. Turns out maybe running for president when he did was the worst mistake he ever made.

[S019]

It'd be a very competitive race, I really don't buy that the AR-15 comments will make him DOA, Cruz has said toxic things too, so I don't understand why the gun comments would be salient, but those wouldn't. Anyways, O'Rourke would attract lots of money to a changing state and one that is clearly moving blue. Tossup, with the slightest Cruz edge, for now.

1. It’s Texas. Beto literally saying he wants to take your guns is about the most politically toxic take possible in Texas. It’s worse than “defund the police.” He’s outright supporting gun confiscation in a state FULL of gun owners, including some swing voters. He totally torpedoed any chance of winning statewide in Texas as long as the state is remotely recognizable with those remarks. Which absolutely would be exploited HEAVILY by Cruz’s campaign. Beto could NEVER get away from them. They’d be played around the clock in ads.

The way you're spinning it makes it sound way worse than it is. Besides I'm pretty sure his comments are well-known at this point, I doubt more ads would have any effect.

2. However unfair it is, Democrats seem to be held to a higher standard than Republicans. Cruz can get away with saying controversial things much more easily. In part because it fires up the base in a still Republican-leaning state, in part because expectations are just lower for him, and in part because I don’t think he’s ever said anything that’s as both toxic and easily exploitable as Beto’s gun comments.

Supporting the January 6 riots isn't toxic, hmmmm okay

3. IT’S TEXAS. Trending blue it might be, slowly, but even if it managed to flip against Trump or a Trumpist on the presidential level, Beto would have to win over at least as many swing voters as the presidential ticket. Unlikely he can with those comments.

I think you're forgetting something called population growth/change, yes vote switchers existed, but Texas' major metros are also seeing large population gains, many of those new voters are Democrats

Also I’m not sure Beto would still be a fundraising giant. Pretty sure he’s widely seen as a washed up has-been thanks to his dismally failed presidential run. He’s longer the exciting new guy. Turns out maybe running for president when he did was the worst mistake he ever made.

Is there any evidence at all for this claim?