Roy Moore accused of sexual abuse

[Anna Komnene]

Is there a remote chance that women don't turn out for Moore, at the very least?

Maybe some of them. Can't say I know too much about Alabama women but women in general can be some of the worst victim shamers and blamers around. Especially the kind of women that would consider voting for Roy Moore. I guess it might be interesting to see if Martha Roby makes a statement on this.

[Anna Komnene]

This'll add another five points to his victory margin.

Yup. Just read the comments on al.com

Tbf, the people who comment on there are probably the ones who are most invested in the race and the ones who are never going to change their mind no matter what. I don't know that it necessarily represents the average Alabaman. I'm not trying to say the average Alabaman agrees with us, but it's probably not as widespread as the comment sections make it seem like. Also, when you're surrounded by people who all say something, it can be scary to speak up with a different opinion.

[Anna Komnene]

Regarding it increasing his chances of winning, it's not unreasonable to theorize that some relatively apolitical voters (it is a special election, after all) may not have been particularly excited by Moore before, but now that they see the "fake news media" and establishment furiously attacking him from both sides, they will actually turn out to vote for him.

That's a good point. This could catch the attention of more voters who weren't paying attention before and that might not be a good thing for Jones. On the other hand, it will also catch the attention of AL democrats, who given their long history of demoralizing losses, may need special motivation to turn out in non-presidential races. I think Jones was always going to have trouble getting the kind of turnout he needed among Dems, so from that point of view, this could at least help him with his own gotv ops - especially if the dems start to believe they might actually have a chance of winning for the first time in who knows how long.