VA Early Voting #s

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454135497173917711

Looks like the rain has dampened turnout a bit today.  But tomorrow is the key day.  I expect a surge because it's the last weekend before Election Day.

[Non Swing Voter]

I BLESS THE RAINS DOWN IN NOOOOOOVAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Non Swing Voter]

Turnout Updates from key areas (as of yesterday):

Statewide Avg. = 15.8%

Fairfax = 17.3% (missing yesterday's mail ins)

Arlington = 19.5%

Alexandria = 18.7%

Richmond City = 13.2%

Charlottesville City = 15.7%

Henrico = 16.2%

Chesterfield = 21%

Hampton City = 13.4%

Loudoun = 16.3%

Prince William = 15.7%

[Non Swing Voter]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

You got precinct level maps?!
Who is your dealer? Hook me up.

Doesn't even NYTimes do precinct level?  I'd also check on vpap.org, they usually have really good election data.

NYT only has precinct data after the elections are over anyways. Good for analyzing long term trends, but not helpful the night of.
I’ll check out vpap. In all honesty, I only need county level data, especially for a state like Virginia where the counties are mostly fairly small.

Countywide will work downstate but not for NOVA.  There are drastically different parts of Loudoun and Fairfax.  So knowing where the vote is coming from is key.  There are suburban areas like Great Falls and Vienna that could be pretty even.  Whereas there are downtown areas of Reston and McLean that are pretty much all condo skyscrapers and will go to T-Mac by extremely wide margins.

Similar for Loudoun.  The inner and city parts have big condo complexes.  But there are a lot literal farmlands near the WV border.

[Non Swing Voter]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

You got precinct level maps?!
Who is your dealer? Hook me up.

Doesn't even NYTimes do precinct level?  I'd also check on vpap.org, they usually have really good election data.

NYT only has precinct data after the elections are over anyways. Good for analyzing long term trends, but not helpful the night of.
I’ll check out vpap. In all honesty, I only need county level data, especially for a state like Virginia where the counties are mostly fairly small.

Countywide will work downstate but not for NOVA.  There are drastically different parts of Loudoun and Fairfax.  So knowing where the vote is coming from is key.  There are suburban areas like Great Falls and Vienna that could be pretty even.  Whereas there are downtown areas of Reston and McLean that are pretty much all condo skyscrapers and will go to T-Mac by extremely wide margins.

Similar for Loudoun.  The inner and city parts have big condo complexes.  But there are a lot literal farmlands near the WV border.

Yes but looking at the Independent cities in NoVa can give a bit of an idea.

Well we know those will go for Terry by a wide margin.  If there is any drop off it's going to be in the wealthy suburban areas (Great Falls, Vienna, parts of McLean, Ashburn, etc.).

[Non Swing Voter]

Loudoun has already surpassed 40% of its total 2017 vote.  Somewhat a product of its rapid population growth.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is there a way to remove posts in a thread you've made or can you only delete the whole thing?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1454213595953303559

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1454213595953303559

That’s a very hopeful sign.

Yup.  While GOP pundits and the same people who got the CA Recall so horrendously wrong are talking about this completely unproven "GOP enthusiasm advantage," Democrats are actually voting. 

My current prediction.  Whatever the polling average is on Election Day, add 5 points to T-Mac (at minimum).

[Non Swing Voter]

Falls Church is now at over 50% of its 2017 total turnout.

[Non Swing Voter]

Fairfax County is at 36% of its 2017 turnout.  Note this is a day behind and multiple days behind on mail ballots.  Probably more like 40%.

[Non Swing Voter]

Arlington at 39% of its 2017 total turnout.

Alexandria also at 39%.

Henrico at 32%.

Chesterfield at 47%.

Richmond at 29%.

[Non Swing Voter]

Some deep red rurals:

Buchanan at 18% of its 2017 turnout.

Lee at 14%.

Campbell at 28%.

Augusta at 35%.

[Non Swing Voter]

Arlington at 39% of its 2017 total turnout.

Alexandria also at 39%.

Henrico at 32%.

Chesterfield at 47%.

Richmond at 29%.

Are those good numbers? Hopefully we reach Biden numbers in NoVa and Richmond metro.

The NOVA numbers are good because they show that the minute more sites were open voting surged.  And they are generally high.

What I am seeing in the numbers is extremely high turnout in liberal white areas and a bit lagging turnout in minority areas.

[Non Swing Voter]

Arlington at 39% of its 2017 total turnout.

Alexandria also at 39%.

Henrico at 32%.

Chesterfield at 47%.

Richmond at 29%.

Are those good numbers? Hopefully we reach Biden numbers in NoVa and Richmond metro.

Goochland is at 50%(Conservative exurb in Richmond metro). Target Smart says its all the dems but I am highly skeptical of that and it shows the data is weak. Why is Henrico so much lower than Chesterfield? I guess some of it could be HOD races but not all of it.

There are only a couple of stand out red areas like that.  There are tons that are lagging.  It's easy to assess blue areas because there are only a few counties but have way more voters. 

[Non Swing Voter]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

That's what it is looking like.  Additional results will trickle in and today will probably net around 100k additional votes.  Plus you have mail in ballots that will be dropped off on Election Day or come in over the next few days.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454464523218395140

As I predicted, turnout looking massive in Fairfax today. 

[Non Swing Voter]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

That's what it is looking like.  Additional results will trickle in and today will probably net around 100k additional votes.  Plus you have mail in ballots that will be dropped off on Election Day or come in over the next few days.

How much of the total electorate might vote early this time? 20%?

Looking like turnout will be about 20% of registered voters.  Probably 35-40% of total turnout this year.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454454942866059272

This tweet pegs a number on turnout today.  I voted last year on the last weekend day of early voting and the lines got bigger and bigger as the afternoon progressed.  So we could see 15,000+ today.

[Non Swing Voter]

While I have been bullish on TMAC’s chances relative to most, that will change if NoVa doesn’t start catching up relative to Central VA. I know there have been delays and the gaps are closing, but time is running out. Today and tomorrow are crucial.
Good news, rain is gone for now in NoVa.

NOVA will be fine.  It always turns out.  Please don't buy the nonsense from the habitually wrong post-deleting blue avatar from Montana who didn't even know Arlington and Fairfax were two different things.  I am going to pass by an early voting site today.  I will let you know if there is turnout. 

I am looking at the numbers themselves from VPAP, I don’t treat any Atlas poster as gospel. The big three NoVa counties all should be relatively higher by the end of early voting compared to the rurals. In terms of % 2020 turnout, they should at least be on par with the rurals. They are increasing quickly so there is time.

In off years NOVA always turns out at a higher rate than rurals.  There needs to be stunningly massive rural turnout on Election Day to catch up.

[Non Swing Voter]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

That's what it is looking like.  Additional results will trickle in and today will probably net around 100k additional votes.  Plus you have mail in ballots that will be dropped off on Election Day or come in over the next few days.

How much of the total electorate might vote early this time? 20%?

Looking like turnout will be about 20% of registered voters.  Probably 35-40% of total turnout this year.

I assume that's a historic high?

Potentially.  But we've never had no excuse early voting in a Gov. race before.  So that could be why.

[Non Swing Voter]

Curious about the mail votes though. The counting still looks like its very slow with those. Makes me feel like there's still probably a ton sitting in transit.

Yes, they will trickle in over the next few days and people will drop them off in ballot boxes.  The numbers aren't up to date on VPAP as well.  There re 28,000 ballots unaccounted for in Fairfax right now according to VPAP.  Not all of them will vote but a good chunk will wait to the last minute to drop off or send.

[Non Swing Voter]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

That's what it is looking like.  Additional results will trickle in and today will probably net around 100k additional votes.  Plus you have mail in ballots that will be dropped off on Election Day or come in over the next few days.

How much of the total electorate might vote early this time? 20%?

Looking like turnout will be about 20% of registered voters.  Probably 35-40% of total turnout this year.

I assume that's a historic high?

Potentially.  But we've never had no excuse early voting in a Gov. race before.  So that could be why.

For sure.
I wonder if the large number of early voters this time might get attention from national media.

Well it clearly shows that early voting does inspire more turnout.  If there was no early voting period I'd be more worried about this election. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Well it clearly shows that early voting does inspire more turnout.  If there was no early voting period I'd be more worried about this election. 

What do you see happening in the House of Delegates?

I'm not following that as closely.  I could see a couple of seats flipping each way canceling each other out.  The one area I think the GOP could over perform is Virginia Beach.  I think Dems will hold fine in NOVA/Richmond. 

I don't know if there are any vulnerable seats in the VA Beach area.  If so, that's probably where the GOP makes gains, if not in maybe one of the Richmond area seats as well. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Updated numbers as a percent of 2017:

Fairfax = 39%

Loudoun = 42%

Prince William = 45%