VA Early Voting #s

[Non Swing Voter]

7 days before polls close: "If TMac doesn't win by 10%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

10 seconds before polls close: "Actually, if TMac doesn't win by 20%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

TMac projected to win Virginia by 15%: "Welp, Democrats are in trouble"

Well TMac's not gonna win by Virginia.  But you could replace VA with "CA" and this basically explains the timeline of the CA recall bulls*** we were all subjected to for a month here.

[Non Swing Voter]

7 days before polls close: "If TMac doesn't win by 10%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

10 seconds before polls close: "Actually, if TMac doesn't win by 20%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

TMac projected to win Virginia by 15%: "Welp, Democrats are in trouble"

Well TMac's not gonna win by Virginia.  But you could replace VA with "CA" and this basically explains the timeline of the CA recall bulls*** we were all subjected to for a month here.

Oh I know. But TMac could beat everyone's expectations and win by double-digits yet even that would be considered "catastrophic" because reasons.

It's almost like this race doesn't matter in regards to 2022 because folks will just regress to their preconceived notions anyway.

Yup.  The same blue avatars were saying "I'm looking at the margins in SoCal for 2022."  When the margins were basically identical to 2020, they just totally forgot about the CA results and have moved on to Virginia.  The entire GOP is in lockstep with Trump's mindset and willful ignorance of reality.

[Non Swing Voter]

Great sign for the Youngkin campaign:

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1453138757331439619

[Non Swing Voter]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

Youngkin wasn't a top-tier candidate, but he may have been the best candidate against a career politician like T-Mac, in that he provides a contrast.  The other thing I believe is that T-Mac isn't a personally popular candidate.  He only beat Cuccinelli by 1.5 points or so in 2013, and he's taken a hit by standing against parents involving themselves in school board issues (a stance he should have seen would not play well).  T-Mac may still win.  He's a slight fave still, as much as it pains me to say.  Youngkin hasn't quite closed the deal, and he well may not be able to.  But there's NOTHING I can think of that T-Mac can do at this point to boost his standing.  For him to be assured victory, he needs a BIG unforced error by Youngkin, and Younkin is a guy that's avoided this so far.

This post hedges all over the place.  The only reason Youngkin is a "good" candidate in any way, is because he brought millions of his own dollars to the table.  Lets be real, if that didn't happen he wouldn't have even gotten the back door nomination to begin with.  He's completely untested.  He's completely unlikable.  The only accomplishment he has thus far is barely winning a fake primary with very few voters.

[Non Swing Voter]

Great sign for the Youngkin campaign:

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1453138757331439619

Likely R

There's a GOP hack on twitter claiming the spike in early voting recently is because the GOP is more engaged this time and Youngkin is encouraging early voting more than the GOP did in 2020/2017.... Yes totally, it's GOP voters inflating the numbers in freaking Falls Church and Fairfax, but oddly the turnout sits at 4% in SWVA where all the Republicans actually live...

[Non Swing Voter]

Great sign for the Youngkin campaign:

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1453138757331439619

Likely R

There's a GOP hack on twitter claiming the spike in early voting recently is because the GOP is more engaged this time and Youngkin is encouraging early voting more than the GOP did in 2020/2017.... Yes totally, it's GOP voters inflating the numbers in freaking Falls Church and Fairfax, but oddly the turnout sits at 4% in SWVA where all the Republicans actually live...

One thing I thought of, is that Biden-Youngkin swing voters wouldn't be as opposed to mail-in voting and early voting as Trump republicans are. And Biden-Youngkin voters probably live in the blue-ing suburbs.

I still think McAuliffe wins though.

There are so few of these types in NOVA though.  Virginia has one of the most polarized electorates in the country.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

Youngkin wasn't a top-tier candidate, but he may have been the best candidate against a career politician like T-Mac, in that he provides a contrast.  The other thing I believe is that T-Mac isn't a personally popular candidate.  He only beat Cuccinelli by 1.5 points or so in 2013, and he's taken a hit by standing against parents involving themselves in school board issues (a stance he should have seen would not play well).  T-Mac may still win.  He's a slight fave still, as much as it pains me to say.  Youngkin hasn't quite closed the deal, and he well may not be able to.  But there's NOTHING I can think of that T-Mac can do at this point to boost his standing.  For him to be assured victory, he needs a BIG unforced error by Youngkin, and Younkin is a guy that's avoided this so far.

Why should parents have a say in what is taught, though?  They're not professionals in education.
 Also, last I checked, we elect school boards to make those decisions (representative democracy, much like state legislatures, Congress, etc.), so they already do have a say. 

And it also implies that parents should have more of a say than non-parents even though they are elected.  So if we apply that logic shouldn't people without kids not have to pay taxes for education? 

Also, a lot of the terrorists attending these school board meetings are right wing activists and paid protestors, not actual parents in those districts.

[Non Swing Voter]

As of 10/25

Early in person votes: 506,287
Mail ballots returned: 218,678
Total: 724,965

As of 10/26

Early in person votes: 559,992
Mail ballots returned: 228,652
Total: 788,644

I believe this is the biggest day of early in person voting yet (+54K)

I think you're right.  And you're going to see a spike in mail in ballots this week as they catch up processing them and people walk them in last minute to satellite offices.  I would like to see the numbers get a little higher though.  We'll pass 1 million by Election Day but the closer to 1.5 million the better for T-Mac.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/virginia-governor-race-early-vote-analysis/

[Non Swing Voter]

As of 10/26

Early in person votes: 559,992
Mail ballots returned: 228,652
Total: 788,644

I believe this is the biggest day of early in person voting yet (+54K)

As of 10/27

Early in person votes: 616,538
Mail ballots returned: 241,050
Total: 857,588

Wednesday was now the biggest day yet of early voting, with 56.5K!

Thank you for taking the lead on the daily updates.  I'd like to see the numbers hit 60-80K each day going forward to feel good about this.  But on the other hand people just aren't early voting as much because the pandemic is under control here.  I haven't voted yet myself.

[Non Swing Voter]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

We all know it's the former.  The new FoxNews poll showing Youngkin up 8 is complete trash.  It's funny how the GOP trashed polls all of 2020 and now suddenly we need to take them at face value.  

[Non Swing Voter]

The problem with analyzing or overinterpreting this (other than relying too much on what was always going to be an obvious D advantage in early voting that could also just be a cannibalization of D voters) is that it tells us nothing about whether Youngkin has made dramatic inroads into Democratic communities/rapidly D-trending areas. "High turnout in Richmond metro/outer NoVA" doesn’t mean much if McAuliffe's doing 15 points worse than Biden in these counties. "High turnout" in D/R areas isn’t good per se if the new/energized voters are likely to turn out against your party (also what happened in 2020 in IA/MT/Miami-Dade/etc.).

True, but beyond the Fox poll there isn’t any indication that Youngkin has done this

Yup, and lol at thinking T-Mac is doing 15 points worse in Arlington and Fairfax.  How utterly ridiculous.

[Non Swing Voter]

Polls don't really miss by a ton when Trump isn't on the ballot.

So Northam won by 3 points in 2017?

[Non Swing Voter]

Polls don't really miss by a ton when Trump isn't on the ballot.

So Northam won by 3 points in 2017?

I meant massive errors in favor of republicans. Otherwise standard polling errors exist, but he is the only person with an actual Bradley Effect.

I consider 6 points to be a pretty massive error in favor of the republican.

[Non Swing Voter]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

We all know it's the former.  The new FoxNews poll showing Youngkin up 8 is complete trash.  It's funny how the GOP trashed polls all of 2020 and now suddenly we need to take them at face value.  

That works both ways, though.  The party that believed in the polls throughout 2020 is now disregarding them. 

That doesn't mean I think this poll is accurate; I don't.  That also doesn't mean I think Youngkin is going to win; I still believe McAuliffe is ahead and favored to win by a small margin.  But it's far from a done deal, and as I've said before, those of you calling this race Safe D are way overconfident.  Youngkin could win this, and if he does I will be less surprised than I was by Trump's win in 2016.

Lots of red avatars thought the Biden winning Wisconsin by 17 poll was trash and that the polls were generally undercounting Trump supporters (mostly because they lie to pollsters).  But claiming a county like Fairfax is going to shift 15 points is outlandish nonsense.

[Non Swing Voter]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

We all know it's the former.  The new FoxNews poll showing Youngkin up 8 is complete trash.  It's funny how the GOP trashed polls all of 2020 and now suddenly we need to take them at face value.  

Yeah, but the suggestion is still that if a Republican is up-they're up and if a Democrat has a small, tenuous lead, they may still be overestimated.

If you are correct though, Non Swing Voter, as I am absolutely pleading with any omnipotent force who is listening that you are, then it will be somewhat empowering going into 2022 that polls might be underestimating us this time. It will be some much needed hope in some seriously dark times. I really want you to be vindicated. I want nothing more in the world right now...that sounds so pathetic, but f*** it! It's true!

Well how were the polls in California?  And have the same blue avatars who are shoving polls in our faces explained the huge miss in California and how that translates to Virginia? 

[Non Swing Voter]

Polls don't really miss by a ton when Trump isn't on the ballot.

So Northam won by 3 points in 2017?

I meant massive errors in favor of republicans. Otherwise standard polling errors exist, but he is the only person with an actual Bradley Effect.

I consider 6 points to be a pretty massive error in favor of the republican.

Sure it's big, but the issue is there aren't a ton of quality polls. Also in VA at the end a lot of them were low quality partisan polls iirc.

For the record I think TMac wins by mid single digits.

These polls seem pretty low quality.  I think ur estimate is right.  I think there has been some movement towards Youngkin but I think T-Mac was starting out with a double digit lead and now it's down to mid single digits.  These polls are estimating Youngkin will get in the 20's among black voters and other outliers that have just simply never happened in modern elections.

[Non Swing Voter]

wanted to also re-post this link: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/democrats-take-lead-in-early-voting-in-virginias-highly-competitive-governors-race-.html

There was some misinformation posted earlier about how all these early voters could be hyper engaged Republicans.  We know with near certainty this is not the case as people studying this know the profile of voters.  The early vote is largely in Dem precincts and by Dem voters.  In VA you do not officially register with a party but during primaries you select a ballot of one party or the other.  Therefore they can get a good idea of the partisan lean of voters who are voting early.  Dems have a huge lead.  They did this in 2020 as well and were spot on.  That's why when NOVA dumped early ballots at the end of the night the state went from a small Trump lead to a massive Biden lead.  The ballots were overwhelmingly Dem at almost the precise margins these same analysts predicted then. 

[Non Swing Voter]

I have no scientific reason for thinking this, but I think this time, the young voters (mostly Democrats) are being underrepresented in polls, which in the end, tilts the race to McAuliff. 

possibly.  there will be youth drop off for sure.  but it could skew one way.  Virginia has a lot of college towns so Dem leaning young people will probably be a higher proportion of young people overall than in 2020.

[Non Swing Voter]

Right now we are at roughly 937,000 early votes cast.  Though with uncounted absentee ballots that were received or in transit back, the number is probably more like 970,000.  Friday and especially Saturday should be big days in most of the state.  So I'd peg overall early vote close to 1.2 million when all ballots are received.  1 million (and definitely less) would have been terrible for Terry.  1.5 million would have been amazing.  So I'd say this is just on course.  Though reports suggest that a higher proportion of early voters are Democrats than last time, especially in the Richmond area.  That's good because there seems to be an odd surge there, especially in Chesterfield. 

It appears that the areas which are surging more than usual are battlegrounds.  Perhaps the polarization in those areas is causing more turnout on both sides.  But at least for now it looks like Dems are outperforming in those battleground areas.

NOVA turnout is obviously very high and Fairfax is now well above the state average.  But that was to be expected when the satellite offices opened. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Right now we are at roughly 937,000 early votes cast.  Though with uncounted absentee ballots that were received or in transit back, the number is probably more like 970,000.  Friday and especially Saturday should be big days in most of the state.  So I'd peg overall early vote close to 1.2 million when all ballots are received.  1 million (and definitely less) would have been terrible for Terry.  1.5 million would have been amazing.  So I'd say this is just on course.  Though reports suggest that a higher proportion of early voters are Democrats than last time, especially in the Richmond area.  That's good because there seems to be an odd surge there, especially in Chesterfield. 

It appears that the areas which are surging more than usual are battlegrounds.  Perhaps the polarization in those areas is causing more turnout on both sides.  But at least for now it looks like Dems are outperforming in those battleground areas.

NOVA turnout is obviously very high and Fairfax is now well above the state average.  But that was to be expected when the satellite offices opened. 

The strongest counties in Richmond area are are Goochland and  Hanover

The voter analysis dives into who is actually voting in those counties, and Dems are voting at a higher rate.

[Non Swing Voter]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

You got precinct level maps?!
Who is your dealer? Hook me up.

Doesn't even NYTimes do precinct level?  I'd also check on vpap.org, they usually have really good election data.

[Non Swing Voter]

FWIW, TargetEarly estimates that the early/mail vote so far is

Dems 463K (54.0%)
Reps 264K (30.7%)
Unaffiliated 132K (15.3%)
= 858K

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2021?state=VA

(looks like they're a day behind)

My guess is that's far from an insurmountable hill for Youngkin to climb on Election Day.

It's going to be a lot higher than 858K by Election Day + all the mail in ballots trickling in.  Definitely over a million but should be much more.  Current total is over 940K.