VA Early Voting #s

[Non Swing Voter]

If it's true that all the early voting sites were open at this point in 2020 but aren't yet this year, then I don't see why anyone is making any optimistic or pessimistic claims so far.

Well for most of the state it's an apples to apples comparison because the smaller counties tend to have one or two sites that are open throughout.  For big counties like Fairfax it's a big difference because the number of early voting sites quadruples soon.  So really what you are seeing is that Northern Virginia's numbers are going to surge next week but most of the rest of the state should just tick up slightly because we are getting closer to the election.  Making claims is fine as long as all of that is factored in.  Right now my gut tells me this election looks pretty typical and reflective of 2017 so I expect a pretty typical result (T-Mac by 7-8) despite what the polls say.

[Non Swing Voter]

State avg. per 1000 voters: 68.4

Alexandria: 79.8

Arlington: 80.1

Fairfax: 60.7

Prince William: 75.9


Fairfax is pretty much single handedly bringing down the NOVA average.  This is because sites haven't opened county-wide and it's an enormous, very congested county.  This is why the hot takes about NOVA not turning out are completely wrong.  It's obvious that Fairfax is just an outlier right now.  But it happens to be a HUGE outlier that is dragging down the whole region's average.

However, more sites open on Oct. 21, so watch the numbers explode in a week.

[Non Swing Voter]

State avg. per 1000 voters: 68.4

Alexandria: 79.8

Arlington: 80.1

Fairfax: 60.7

Prince William: 75.9


Fairfax is pretty much single handedly bringing down the NOVA average.  This is because sites haven't opened county-wide and it's an enormous, very congested county.  This is why the hot takes about NOVA not turning out are completely wrong.  It's obvious that Fairfax is just an outlier right now.  But it happens to be a HUGE outlier that is dragging down the whole region's average.

However, more sites open on Oct. 21, so watch the numbers explode in a week.

and given that post from the other thread, it appears the few Fairfax sites that ARE open are now seeing major lines since there's so few of them.

Yeah though I don't think that's a deterrent for most.  If you are driving 30+ minutes to go to the central voting site u probably don't mind waiting in line 40 mins.  There will be long lines at the satellite sites as well.  In 2020 I think I waited about 2-3 hours to vote early at a satellite site.  That's why I'm voting on Election Day this time.  There's no wait.

[Non Swing Voter]

As of 10/16
Early in person: 255,821
Mail ballots returned: 147,929
Total = 403,750

As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690

It's definitely picking up.  At this right we are probably looking at ~40,000-50,000 votes a day until Oct. 21 when satellite sites open, then you're probably looking at ~75,000-100,000 a day until Election Day.  Could easily hit 1.5 million before Election Day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Most Fairfax voters with outstanding mail ballots will hand deliver them to satellite sites starting tomorrow.  You will see a giant uptick in NOVA (not just Fairfax) on Friday.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1450920513270947843

Here's the other one:

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1450921263728316420

[Non Swing Voter]

Yes, NOVA numbers were inflated last year because they opened satellite offices earlier and because of the pandemic.  The covid case rates are extremely low right now in NOVA so I expect a more robust Election Day turnout.  But I also expect early voting to spike soon as well.  There is going to be a big discrepancy between the three NOVA districts and the SWVA/downstate districts in terms of pre-election turnout.  Dems will have banked a very significant lead.  So to even keep it close, Youngkin will need extremely massive rural turnout on Election Day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Additional early voting sites opened in Fairfax today.  I will be driving by one of them when I grab lunch.  I am curious to see how long the line is.  It's early in a weekday so probably not too long. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Additional early voting sites opened in Fairfax today.  I will be driving by one of them when I grab lunch.  I am curious to see how long the line is.  It's early in a weekday so probably not too long. 

Keep us updated on anecdotal evidence!

I'm curious about what you saw.

Sorry forgot to update this.  I saw what I would describe as a steady amount of people at the early voting site (which is in a high concentration/noticeable area with a major road passing by).  Based on the time of day I'd say it was a little more turnout than I expected. 

Looks like 6,500 people voted in person yesterday, which was about 4x the rate of the previous days when satellite voting wasn't open.  No mail ballot numbers yet.  But I'd say it's about what I'd expect if not a slight bit higher.

[Non Swing Voter]

Additional early voting sites opened in Fairfax today.  I will be driving by one of them when I grab lunch.  I am curious to see how long the line is.  It's early in a weekday so probably not too long. 

Keep us updated on anecdotal evidence!

I'm curious about what you saw.

Oh my gosh thanks for reminding me.
Yeah I wasn’t in Virginia long, but I saw two Youngkin signs in New Hanover from the train and I saw two McAuliffe signs in Henrico.
Given it took more time to find the McAuliffe signs, it does appear Republicans have an enthusiasm edge. However, the rich white Henrico suburbs (where I was) have not shown evidence of reverting. I probably will take a few trips to NoVa on the metro right before the election.

Eh.  I see a decent amount of Youngkin signs in NOVA but honestly, it's the same houses I always see putting up GOP signs...  and we know how the GOP does in NOVA.

[Non Swing Voter]

Not sure how it's not good or good. We don't know how the electorate is turning out this year versus 2020. There could easily be more Rs who are early voting this year and Ds who are who waiting until E-Day.

Not to mention, again, for the 100th time, there were way more early voting sites open earlier in 2020 than there are now.

Yeah but now Fairfax is fully open.  Though the covid case rates are low so there is less rationale for voting early (other than convenience).

[Non Swing Voter]

Northern Virginia went from well below the state average to above it this week with Fairfax opening more early voting sites, as expected.  This is important because the places outside of Fairfax county that are over performing also tend to be blue areas like Henrico.

With early voting open this weekend I expect the numbers in NOVA to tick sharply up.  Thanks for playing Youngkin, should have bought a ticket to space instead.

[Non Swing Voter]

Where is Matty?

currently reloading the CA SOS's website for any last minute outstanding ballots that will bring the Recall YES vote to within 10?

[Non Swing Voter]

As of 10/22
Early in person votes: 410,868
Mail ballots returned: 199,686
Total = 610,554

As of 10/23
Early in person votes: 449,332
Mail ballots returned: 204,634
Total = 653,966

Fairfax had another huge day, with 9K early votes on Saturday - it's best yet.

This was all very predictable.  Fairfax is now about to overtake the statewide average. 

Any hopes that Dems weren't engaged were clearly misplaced.

Arlington and Alexandria (core Dem areas) are now well above the state average.

[Non Swing Voter]

Falls Church City (a Dem stronghold) is at about 16% turnout.  Statewide average is 11%.  This might be the highest turnout for any municipality in the state.  I can't find anything higher.

[Non Swing Voter]

over 9,000. voted yesterday in Fairfax, but this doesn't tell the whole story as it doesn't include absentee ballots.  A lot of people will take their mail ballot and drop it in drop boxes of the satellite places.  Based on what I saw last year I'd estimate you can add another 10-15%.  So probably 10,000 voted yesterday.  Not bad, though I might have actually expected a bit more as it was the first Saturday with early voting at all Fairfax locations.  Then again I am an engaged voter and I didn't vote.  Early voting just wont be as high this year because the pandemic isn't a big issue here anymore.

[Non Swing Voter]

over 9,000. voted yesterday in Fairfax, but this doesn't tell the whole story as it doesn't include absentee ballots.  A lot of people will take their mail ballot and drop it in drop boxes of the satellite places.  Based on what I saw last year I'd estimate you can add another 10-15%.  So probably 10,000 voted yesterday.  Not bad, though I might have actually expected a bit more as it was the first Saturday with early voting at all Fairfax locations.  Then again I am an engaged voter and I didn't vote.  Early voting just wont be as high this year because the pandemic isn't a big issue here anymore.

What, 9,000? There's no way that can be right.

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/november-2021-election/locality-fairfax-county-va/

[Non Swing Voter]

I just pulled the most recent registered voters stats.  These are rough estimates

5,622,000 active VA voters

Fairfax = 732,000 (13%)
Loudoun = 269,000 (4.8%)
Prince William = 288,000 (5.1%)
Arlington = 154,000 (2.7%)
Alexandria (non-Fairfax) = 96,000 (1.7%)

Independent Cities (below) = 56,000 (1%)
Fairfax City = 16,000
Falls Church City = 10,000
Manassas City = 22,000
Manassas Park City = 8,000

I am probably forgetting 1 or 2 independent cities but by my estimates, cote NOVA = 28.3% of the VA electorate now (and they usually turn out at higher rates than downstate).

Other core Dem areas (below) = 803,000 (14.2%)

Charlottesville City = 31,000
Newport News City = 112,000
Norfolk City = 125,000
Hampton City = 90,000
Richmond City = 142,000
Henrico County = 226,000
Albemarle = 77,000

So basically you have 42.5% of the population living in core democratic areas. 

There are other places where Democrats tend to win or are very competitive, which I didn't include.  But that shows how hard it is for a Republican to win in VA.  For a Republican to win they need to not only win rural overwhelmingly, which they tend to do.  They need to win lean GOP areas overwhelmingly, because true rurals are really only 20% or so of the electorate.  They also really need to win pretty much every single tossup area like Chesterfield, Stafford, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Suffolk, etc.  But these are vote rich, fairly diverse areas and thus do not tend to go one way or the other by big margins. 

So really the GOP needs to not only do ALL OF THE ABOVE, they also need to cut the deficit in some of the core Dem areas or hope for very low turnout.  That's not going to happen in places like Richmond, Arlington, Alexandria, Charlottesville or the independent cities.   Which are all essentially just core Dem city voters.  I'd probably lump Prince William in there too. So basically they need a Hail Mary and to majorly cut the deficit in some combination of Loudoun and Fairfax.  That's unlikely to happen given the way Youngkin has run his campaign. 

This is why I am very bullish on Virginia.  I have been saying the same thing for years, that Dem areas of the state were going to slowly overtake the rural areas making it impossible for the GOP to win statewide.  You can search my old posts.  It hasn't been incorrect since I started making those predictions and unlikable, uncharismatic Youngkin isn't going to be the one to break the chain.

[Non Swing Voter]

Fairfax and NOVA now well above the statewide average and trending up. 

SW and downstate still way below the statewide average and stagnant.

Definitely looks like Dems aren't engaged.

[Non Swing Voter]

Fairfax and NOVA now well above the statewide average and trending up. 

SW and downstate still way below the statewide average and stagnant.

Definitely looks like Dems aren't engaged.

I go back and forth if this is a true tossup race or not. There is a bit of an Ohio 2020 vibe where everyone assumes it's a close race but turns out reverting to state partisanship of the previous elections.

bingo. 

[Non Swing Voter]

NOVA now clearly surging (as expected).

Falls Church: 19% turnout
Fairfax City: 17%
Arlington: 15%
Alexandria: 15%
Manassas: 14%
Fairfax: 13%
Prince William: 13%
Loudoun: 12%

Virginia: 12%

Buchanan (SWVA): 4%
Lee (SWVA): 4%

[Non Swing Voter]

Early voting is only one piece of the puzzle, but I'm not sure you can accurately say "Dems are not energized" or any of these narratives when turnout is at, a minimum, very decent in a bunch of blue areas.

I would like to know how blue avatars continue to say Dems are not engaged when turnout is literally 4x higher in NOVA than in SWVA right now.  Millennial DC commuters who live in Falls Church are not voting for Youngkin.

[Non Swing Voter]

Fairfax and NOVA now well above the statewide average and trending up. 

SW and downstate still way below the statewide average and stagnant.

Definitely looks like Dems aren't engaged.

But you see, swaths of "neoliberal hawkish" Biden voters in NoVA are going to vote for Youngkin (who's totally a moderate) because something something school boards and "CRT."

We laugh but this is literally what they think is going to happen.  The blue avatars on here literally think most of the population of NOVA works for the federal gov. and specifically the military.  NOVA has literally 4-5x the population of DC itself.

[Non Swing Voter]

The fact that we’re even a little unsure how this race will turn out is a clear sign of how horrible the environment is for Democrats.  Youngkin is a C-list candidate running a D-/F+ campaign and yet he’s running neck-in-neck with our best possible recruit largely b/c of how toxic the Democratic brand is right now.  This should be a blowout.  The fact that it isn’t tells you everything you need to know and pretending otherwise is counterproductive wishcasting.  If the Democrats don’t get their act together in a big way, really quickly - and that ship may have already sailed - then we’re probably looking at a 1994/2010 environment except with less ground left to lose

People in the know aren't even a little unsure.  Just because blue avatars and "analysts" on twitter who were horrendously off in 2020 say so, doesn't make it reality.  No votes have been counted.  I heard the same thing about the CA recall race.

[Non Swing Voter]

And no hot takes have mentioned how Youngkin has dumped millions and millions of dollars into this race and has barely moved the needle.