VA Early Voting #s

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454590468776468487

I believe that is more final day in person early voters than in 2020 in Fairfax county. I think the Fox poll scared away some of the complacency.

that and early voting was compressed in FFX for satellite offices so today was always going to be huge.

[Non Swing Voter]

Based on TS data, if you assume all Ds vote D, all Rs vote R and indies go 60-40 Youngkin, you have almost exactly a 60-40 McAuliffe EV total thus far.

What is the 60-40 split for Indies based on?  Just Youngkin generally rising in the polls?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1454410626286096386?s=20

I think it will be higher than his predictions with mail ins.  

Also, it's important to note that Fairfax goes from 3 --> 16 --> 243 voting precincts.

Obviously many many people are waiting til Election Day because there will be way more locations, particularly in huge jurisdictions like Fairfax, Loudoun, Richmond.  So the numbers right now are impressive.

And there will be partisan democrats, myself included, who will vote on election day.

EDIT: you should really not read that twitter account, the "analysis" is way off.  He's comparing normal off year drop off to 2020 and saying this is bad news for Dems.  Without even acknowledging that 2020 was a major pandemic and (a) early voting was designed specifically for that reason, (b) early voting in the "big" counties like Fairfax had more early days for satellite sites.  Either he's not knowledgeable or being disingenuous. 

[Non Swing Voter]

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

As of 10/30
Early in person votes: 853,310
Mail ballots returned: 286,193
Total: 1,139,503

VPAP seems to be a bit out of date though, its saying only 9.7K in Fairfax for yesterday, but we know from their tweets it was 14K+

Look closely.  The 9.7k number is for Oct. 29.

[Non Swing Voter]

I will make a general point about firms like Targetsmart and others that have projected early vote leads for either party based off inferred voter demographics since 2016 which is when I first started looking at their analysis.

They consistently overestimate how well democrats are doing in the early vote, in 2016 many of these firms suggested Clinton would win states she lost based off her early vote performance, 2020 was the same, in PA people posting on twitter who worked for these firms suggested Biden would win PA by maybe 5-6% just based off his early vote numbers because the election day vote was going to be not that large, he won by 1.2%.

Whether they overestimate democrats because of a flaw in their methodology or because all the people who work for them are democrats so they always twist the data to suit their partisan perspective is hard to say.

They correctly predicted the make up of the early vote but the Election Day vote was large.  I don't know why they would make a prediction about the day of vote at all.  They generally just interpret the early vote.  The PA early vote was indeed extremely democratic. 

[Non Swing Voter]

How many mail ballots are still in transport?

There are 108,000 unaccounted for mail in ballots.

[Non Swing Voter]

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

As of 10/30
Early in person votes: 853,310
Mail ballots returned: 286,193
Total: 1,139,503

VPAP seems to be a bit out of date though, its saying only 9.7K in Fairfax for yesterday, but we know from their tweets it was 14K+

They just updated the Fairfax numbers btw...  now over 163K total.  Statewide total 1,142,155 at the moment.

[Non Swing Voter]

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

As of 10/30
Early in person votes: 853,310
Mail ballots returned: 286,193
Total: 1,139,503

VPAP seems to be a bit out of date though, its saying only 9.7K in Fairfax for yesterday, but we know from their tweets it was 14K+

They just updated the Fairfax numbers btw...  now over 163K total.  Statewide total 1,142,155 at the moment.

Is there a chance for more tomorrow? If so, that probably gets us to 1.2-1.25 range.

Yes.  Usually these numbers get adjusted (i.e. moved up) a bit.  Plus more ballots will trickle in.  Not sure it will get to quite 1.2 though.  The good news (if you want T-Mac to win) is that Dems clearly ended early voting with a very strong numerical lead and many more will still turn out on Election Day.  It's not like 2020 when Dems essentially spent their entire load on early voting.

[Non Swing Voter]

So is TMac’s lead around 250k?

That's a fair assumption.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1454479713305513986

White liberals/college educated whites/UMC whites (however we want to define them) were always going to be a higher proportion of the VA electorate than their share of the population.  This is always the case and especially so in off-year Gubernatorial elections.  The good thing for Dems is there are many many more of them waiting to vote on Election Day so I expect they will be well represented within the final overall electorate.

[Non Swing Voter]

As of yesterday.  Early vote total 1,149,601.  A bit over 100,000 mail in ballots not returned.  Perhaps those will trickle in and get this closer to 1.2m.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is VPAP gonna update tomorrow with two days worth of mail-in ballot returns?

Just go to VA registrars site.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is VPAP gonna update tomorrow with two days worth of mail-in ballot returns?

Just go to VA registrars site.

Only 7k mail in ballots were processed today?

Ngl, just a tad bit worried that there's still a ton of mail in ballots sitting in the mail right now that should've been processed by now.

There are 100,000 mail in ballots unaccounted for.  Roughly 50% are in NOVA.

The Dems and USPS entered into an agreement that the USPS will have to sweep post offices, and do other measures and continually report to the DNC.