VA Early Voting #s

[Non Swing Voter]

Updated numbers as a percent of 2017:

Fairfax = 39%

Loudoun = 42%

Prince William = 45%

And Fairfax would likely be at least 45% like Prince William if it was open earlier, too.

The reason Prince William is so high is because they generally get lower turnout than Fairfax.  So that's a place where early voting has really benefited Dems. 

[Non Swing Voter]

More to the last point.  Fairfax is actually at a higher turnout rate among REGISTERED voters but lower when compared to 2017.  So you can see Fairfax turned out much more in 2017 than Prince William, relatively speaking.  If Dems can keep up the momentum in Prince William that will be a hidden trove of votes that will counteract any rural surge.

[Non Swing Voter]

I honestly think this race is tilt D looking at these early voting numbers. Not very confident as E-Day can really put a dent in Dems advantage rn.

It is...  and they can't...  and it's pretty obvious but the tv pundits want to create a horserace where none exists.

[Non Swing Voter]

More to the last point.  Fairfax is actually at a higher turnout rate among REGISTERED voters but lower when compared to 2017.  So you can see Fairfax turned out much more in 2017 than Prince William, relatively speaking.  If Dems can keep up the momentum in Prince William that will be a hidden trove of votes that will counteract any rural surge.

Prince William County is underrated in its electoral importance, imo. It is a Dem stronghold that less swingy voters than Fairfax. If Ds can get good results there that would help them immensely if Youngkin does better than expected.

Yes they need turnout there.  The turnout could vary a lot.  So it's good they are banking a lot of votes there right now.  With these kinds of numbers I don't see how Youngkin pulls this off.  I am also not seeing an enthusiasm gap with Prince William numbers like this right now.

[Non Swing Voter]

More to the last point.  Fairfax is actually at a higher turnout rate among REGISTERED voters but lower when compared to 2017.  So you can see Fairfax turned out much more in 2017 than Prince William, relatively speaking.  If Dems can keep up the momentum in Prince William that will be a hidden trove of votes that will counteract any rural surge.

Prince William County is underrated in its electoral importance, imo. It is a Dem stronghold that less swingy voters than Fairfax. If Ds can get good results there that would help them immensely if Youngkin does better than expected.

Yes they need turnout there.  The turnout could vary a lot.  So it's good they are banking a lot of votes there right now.  With these kinds of numbers I don't see how Youngkin pulls this off.  I am also not seeing an enthusiasm gap with Prince William numbers like this right now.

Isn't the southeastern share of PWC incredibly Democratic, very non-white, and growing very fast? That area in particular might be inclined to less turnout in normal conditions.

Yes.  Well all of NOVA is very mixed, but I believe PWC has a high African American concentration around there.  So you get very skewed Dem pockets in PWC.  That's why precinct results matter, moreso than in say Fairfax where there are definitely also extreme pockets of Dem strength but not as skewed. 

[Non Swing Voter]

More good news.  The Fairfax numbers on VPAP are very outdated...

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454498164963217410

[Non Swing Voter]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Except, the entire basis of Youngkin's chances is on Dems not being enthusiastic about voting and these numbers are disproving that.  We are probably looking at higher turnout than 2017...

[Non Swing Voter]

Not enough, Fairfax needs to hit 40% of its 2020 early vote at least like many central VA rurals.

Fairfax is now at 42% of its 2017 vote. 

What central VA rurals are at 40% of its 2020 early vote?

[Non Swing Voter]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Except, the entire basis of Youngkin's chances is on Dems not being enthusiastic about voting and these numbers are disproving that.  We are probably looking at higher turnout than 2017...

There are a number of ways that Youngkin still wins even if core Democratic voters turn out in high numbers. I'm not predicting that will happen - I have no idea what's going to happen in this race - but the record of the last several years is that early votes simply can not predict the outcome when there is such a differential between who votes on election day and who doesn't.

In FL there was a wide unexpected shift in Miami.  There's no evidence that will happen in say Fairfax.  Indeed, even as Miami shifted R in 2020, Fairfax shifted D. 

Also lets put this all in perspective.  NC and FL are tilt R states.  Virginia is way different.  Dems just need to maintain their numbers to win.  They built a wall in NC and FL that was surmountable because there are lots more Republicans in those states.  They are building a wall that's becoming insurmountable to the GOP in VA because the GOP doesn't have the votes. 

This is more akin to Nevada 2020 than FL/NC 2020.  Dems built too big a wall in NV for the GOP to win.  That's a counterexample to what you are talking about.

[Non Swing Voter]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Not drawing any conclusions from this is honestly the wise thing to do given how many variables we simply don’t know. This also doesn’t tell us anything about the actual margins in those places and whether Youngkin is winning over traditionally or recently D-leaning voters (just because people picked a D primary ballot last year doesn’t mean that they’re all reliable Democrats). I also wouldn’t subscribe to the "high turnout = always good for Democrats" assumption, even in D areas (that was disproven as well in many states in 2020).

I think the one thing that it can tell us is that both sides are engaged, which goes against the prevailing narrative right now.

lets just stick to the EV numbers like this thread is intended to do.  He's trying to siderail it.

[Non Swing Voter]

UPDATE: Fairfax was at 6,400 votes as of 1pm.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454510805148373000

[Non Swing Voter]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Not drawing any conclusions from this is honestly the wise thing to do given how many variables we simply don’t know. This also doesn’t tell us anything about the actual margins in those places and whether Youngkin is winning over traditionally or recently D-leaning voters (just because people picked a D primary ballot last year doesn’t mean that they’re all reliable Democrats). I also wouldn’t subscribe to the "high turnout = always good for Democrats" assumption, even in D areas (that was disproven as well in many states in 2020).

I think the one thing that it can tell us is that both sides are engaged, which goes against the prevailing narrative right now.

lets just stick to the EV numbers like this thread is intended to do.  He's trying to siderail it.

If that's directed at me, I'm certain not trying to siderail a conversation. It's my gut reaction to anyone trying to make predictions from EVs rather than observations. But if it's against the spirit of the thread, I won't belabor the point any further.

No, not you at all.  Your point was definitely legitimate. 

[Non Swing Voter]

To answer the questions I have received, a large number of counties have hit 40% of their early 2020 votes and two have hit 50% (Powhatan and Matthews) I didn’t get all the counties because yamps f**king reset my map even though I literally changed tabs for like one SECOND wo I gave up and did something else.

I think comparing to total vote in 2017 (or even 2020) is more informative than comparing to early vote in 2020.  We know Republican counties did not tend to vote early in 2020 (because Trump was stupid about that) so it's a lot easier for GOP counties to over perform when few people voted early last time.

[Non Swing Voter]

To answer the questions I have received, a large number of counties have hit 40% of their early 2020 votes and two have hit 50% (Powhatan and Matthews) I didn’t get all the counties because yamps f**king reset my map even though I literally changed tabs for like one SECOND wo I gave up and did something else.

I think comparing to total vote in 2017 (or even 2020) is more informative than comparing to early vote in 2020.  We know Republican counties did not tend to vote early in 2020 (because Trump was stupid about that) so it's a lot easier for GOP counties to over perform when few people voted early last time.

No offense, but this seems like a coping point. And comparing to 2017 BEFORE there was a difference in voting early vs on Election Day is ridiculous.

I am comparing to TOTAL vote not early vote.  The percentages are what percent of the TOTAL 2017 vote has been hit by the early vote of 2021.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1454542492536291339

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/HopeforVirginia/status/1454507273531822093

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1454555897791909892

[Non Swing Voter]

FINAL NUMBERS:

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1454569188601876480

That puts it at about 62% of total 2017 turnout.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454568201778520064

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454568201778520064

This along with the Falls Church numbers gives me hope for Tuesday that the polls will be wrong.

Yes.  These are core democratic voters.  I am not at all worried about this election in any way.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454568201778520064

This along with the Falls Church numbers gives me hope for Tuesday that the polls will be wrong.

Yes.  These are core democratic voters.  I am not at all worried about this election in any way.

I have a bad feeling that this is going to age horribly come Tuesday night.

I am not at all stressed about this election.  Virginia will do Virginia.  Most of the people who think Youngkin will win are just regurgitating the polls and don't know Virginia politics.  It's like every VA election has taught this board absolutely nothing. 

[Non Swing Voter]

What’s the estimated partisan breakdown? Where’s the link to that site

The last I saw, the overall estimate is that of the 1 million+ who have voted, they voted 2-1 for Biden last time.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454590468776468487

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454590468776468487

Are these the final numbers for today?

Will we get an update on Monday and Tuesday?

yes, no.  but does not include mail ballots which we will get an update on.