Latino Vote Realignment (CA)

[Non Swing Voter]

Of all the terrible takes over the last 6 months, this is the most ridiculous one that actually still persists... 

[Non Swing Voter]

Of all the terrible takes over the last 6 months, this is the most ridiculous one that actually still persists... 

Democrats are spending money trying to fix it, so doesn’t that suggest they have seen data that concerns them?

We currently live in incredibly close electoral times

Neither party can afford any slippage anywhere with their base constituencies.

LOL no, it just suggests they are a rising share of the electorate and a significant portion of the Dems' coalition.  There is zero evidence of a long term trend of latinos to Republicans despite constant silly threads like this with anecdotal evidence and/or based on one election result.  If we are going to keep having this discussion at least confine it to one thread.

[Non Swing Voter]

Imperial County is right of the state at this election; also it seems likely the exit poll will probably end up fairly accurate once all the votes are counted.

It obviously doesn't mean a "total political realignment" since this map really isn't meaningfully different from 2016/2018.

Exit polls look like they are going to be way off. They projected an about 18 point NO win and the real number will likely be in the mid 20's (NO +28 currently).

The story in Imperial is not the margin (currently within a point of 2018) but the horrible turnout.

They always are it seems.  A lot of people here claimed Trump won white college educated voters in 2016 based on exit polls even though it was obvious based on the precinct voting patterns that he did not.  Then a comprehensive study showed that Trump did in fact lose college educated whites.  I definitely trust something like that or precinct data versus questioning like 500 people on an exit poll only 50 of which fit any particular group.

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans are obsessed with Latinos. They look at them like the electoral equivalent of a security blanket.

They want a coalition that is whites without college degrees + latinos to offset the Dem coalition of whites with college degrees + asians + African Americans.  That GOP coalition would be fairly well distributed too.  The problem is the modern GOP keeps selecting racist candidates and this fantasy isn't materializing. 

Most "gains" among Latinos can be explained by particular circumstances like covid causing a Las Vegas shutdown or Miami Cuban outreach.  But every time they do even marginally well (not win) hispanics they say it's a big trend.  This thread is just the latest iteration of this nonsense but it's been going on for years.  In 2004 when Bush did better with latinos they said the same thing.  In 2010 also.  When Marco Rubio and Cruz won, same thing.  Last year, same thing. 

Yet they conveniently gloss over when Obama improved with latinos.  When Beto walloped Cruz (their last datapoint) among latinos.  When latinos were largely responsible for kicking out Arpaio as sheriff in AZ.  Because that shows that the data is noisy and there is absolutely no realignment occurring. 

[Non Swing Voter]

The last three posts directly above mine are very persuasive, informed, and reference data and actual analysis indicating no latino vote realignment.  But a few Republicans have a hunch about latinos, and they tend to have a good pulse for the Telemundo demographic... so....

[Non Swing Voter]

I mean, considering whites in cities are much more democrat than whites outside cities, wouldn’t we expect that to show up among Latinos too?

Some of you seem awfully defensive about certain Latino trends, lol

You don’t own them.

This is completely non-factual rebuttal that points to no evidence as opposed to the posts above which do.  You seem awfully aggressive about your predictions considering they haven't at all panned out thus far.

[Non Swing Voter]

Now that the latino vote trend has been debunked, does that mean the college white trend in this election is ALSO wrong?  Presumably the exit poll YES/NO vote numbers match the actual results.  So the incorrect latino vote share must be offset somewhere.... 

[Non Swing Voter]

Not in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/UCLAlatino/status/1438004875657318405?s=20

It's an extremely precise pattern at this point.

[Non Swing Voter]

Newsom margin hovering around 27% right now.  This big "narrowing" we were promised here is NOT happening to the degree claimed. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Part of the problem is that most of this isn't a 'realignment'. Bush made similar gains among Latinos in 2004, which was crucial to winning Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. But overall Democrats still win the majority of the Latin American vote, and this was still the case even in the 2004 and 2020 elections.

There is a bit of a generational divide among Hispanics when it comes to issues such as immigration or crime, with older Latinos leaning more conservative on these issues. This could explain the 2004 and 2020 swings, at least in part. But this isn't anything new, and this divide was already there arguably since Latinos first became a significant voting block.

and both those elections were GOP incumbents.  yet this board still refuses to learn the lesson that hispanics have a slight pro-incumbent bent.  when Obama won Florida in 2012 they didn't say hispanics were trending democrat because it didn't fit the narrative.  the GOP is just desperately grasping at straws because they know they are in mass demographic decline. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Well with like 90% of the actual vote in, I think it's fair to say those initial exit polls were complete and utter nonsense.  They were almost as far off as the pre-election polls.  It's amazing.  Pollsters have one job, this is all they do...

[Non Swing Voter]

Speaking of Imperial, here's the latest update:

NO 10,296 62.05%
YES 6,296 37.95%

New results:

NO 12,111 63.04%
YES 7,101 36.96%

Which means that this

Imperial County is right of the state at this election

is no longer true.

They are only 43% in.  Given what has happened in the rest of SoCal with the second half of the vote, I would be shocked if Imperial doesn't fall under 60% No. 

Imperial is 77% in.

No 63.2%    13,152
Yes 36.8%    7,654