Latino Vote Realignment (CA)

[BigSerg]

Democrats win, we all know that, but, those horrible margins with the Latino vote mean a total political realignment?

[Хahar 🤔]

no

[BigSerg]

no

It is too bold to say "no", this is a significant trend.

[Oryxslayer]

What are you basing this off: the exit poll which understated Dem support or the standard off-year valley electorate which has horrible Hispanic turnout? Cause there's a trend in the precincts familiar to those who watch these things where turnout drops by a lot compared to 2020, and dem margins shoot back to pre-2020 levels.

[Xing]

Republicans in 2015: "Just because the Latino vote trended Democratic in 2008 and 2012 doesn't mean it will in the future. Latinos are not a monolith and we can't assume that a group full of different voting blocs will continue to uniformly trend toward one party. We saw what happened after 2004."

Republicans in 2021: "Latinos swung Republican in 2020, so that settles that, they'll continue uniformly trending Republican in every state/region indefinitely until voting like rural white voters."

[Suburbia]

No

[It’s so Joever]

Latinos aren’t a monolith, but in general I expect many subgroups to trend R anyways.
Calling anything a realignment though is a dumb thing, really it’s more of an ongoing shift which has been in the making for a while.

[Agafin]

Back in 2018, a lot of is thought Neto and Gillium/Nelson had underperformed with Latinos in their respective I've states. I remember several pundits stating that Nelson only needed to hold on to Clinton's margin in Dade to win the whole thing.

In hindsight, they certainly didn't underperform, latinos had just already started trending right but we were unaware.

[Vosem]

What are you basing this off: the exit poll which understated Dem support or the standard off-year valley electorate which has horrible Hispanic turnout? Cause there's a trend in the precincts familiar to those who watch these things where turnout drops by a lot compared to 2020, and dem margins shoot back to pre-2020 levels.

Imperial County is right of the state at this election; also it seems likely the exit poll will probably end up fairly accurate once all the votes are counted.

It obviously doesn't mean a "total political realignment" since this map really isn't meaningfully different from 2016/2018.

Republicans in 2015: "Just because the Latino vote trended Democratic in 2008 and 2012 doesn't mean it will in the future. Latinos are not a monolith and we can't assume that a group full of different voting blocs will continue to uniformly trend toward one party. We saw what happened after 2004."

Republicans in 2021: "Latinos swung Republican in 2020, so that settles that, they'll continue uniformly trending Republican in every state/region indefinitely until voting like rural white voters."

Another argument against Latinos trending Republican forever is that there's a strong element of "reversion to the mean" here, where the trend is back towards the 2000s equilibrium (which Republicans still haven't returned to) and only in very few extremely remote and rural places is the GOP exceeding their 2004 result. (2020 also had a correlation between Latino swing GOP and exposure to Spanish-language media, and given that immigration from Latin America actually fell off a cliff after 2005, Spanish-language media should matter less rather than more in the future).

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

no

It is too bold to say "no", this is a significant trend.

Love the way that it's "bold" to say no, but it's not "bold" to say yes

[Non Swing Voter]

Of all the terrible takes over the last 6 months, this is the most ridiculous one that actually still persists... 

[Matty]

Of all the terrible takes over the last 6 months, this is the most ridiculous one that actually still persists... 

Democrats are spending money trying to fix it, so doesn’t that suggest they have seen data that concerns them?

We currently live in incredibly close electoral times

Neither party can afford any slippage anywhere with their base constituencies.

[Non Swing Voter]

Of all the terrible takes over the last 6 months, this is the most ridiculous one that actually still persists... 

Democrats are spending money trying to fix it, so doesn’t that suggest they have seen data that concerns them?

We currently live in incredibly close electoral times

Neither party can afford any slippage anywhere with their base constituencies.

LOL no, it just suggests they are a rising share of the electorate and a significant portion of the Dems' coalition.  There is zero evidence of a long term trend of latinos to Republicans despite constant silly threads like this with anecdotal evidence and/or based on one election result.  If we are going to keep having this discussion at least confine it to one thread.

[Minnesota Mike]

Imperial County is right of the state at this election; also it seems likely the exit poll will probably end up fairly accurate once all the votes are counted.

It obviously doesn't mean a "total political realignment" since this map really isn't meaningfully different from 2016/2018.

Exit polls look like they are going to be way off. They projected an about 18 point NO win and the real number will likely be in the mid 20's (NO +28 currently).

The story in Imperial is not the margin (currently within a point of 2018) but the horrible turnout.

[Non Swing Voter]

Imperial County is right of the state at this election; also it seems likely the exit poll will probably end up fairly accurate once all the votes are counted.

It obviously doesn't mean a "total political realignment" since this map really isn't meaningfully different from 2016/2018.

Exit polls look like they are going to be way off. They projected an about 18 point NO win and the real number will likely be in the mid 20's (NO +28 currently).

The story in Imperial is not the margin (currently within a point of 2018) but the horrible turnout.

They always are it seems.  A lot of people here claimed Trump won white college educated voters in 2016 based on exit polls even though it was obvious based on the precinct voting patterns that he did not.  Then a comprehensive study showed that Trump did in fact lose college educated whites.  I definitely trust something like that or precinct data versus questioning like 500 people on an exit poll only 50 of which fit any particular group.

[TodayJunior]

Democrats win, we all know that, but, those horrible margins with the Latino vote mean a total political realignment?

If you're talking ONLY California, probably a net zero since it looks like Latino-gains are being offset by losses in college-educated whites. I say this bc the margin is almost identical to 2020.

However, if we expand this to include other states, it could make a difference in certain places with high concentration of Latino voters in the first place, but where there also isn't much of an opposite trend in other demographics like the aforementioned white college-educated men/women. That could swing Nevada eventually, and Florida is one for sure (though Cubans are almost always overwhelming Republican and the main driver here). However, in places like Texas/Arizona, it appears these following the same trendlines in California, albeit, much more slowly.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Republicans are obsessed with Latinos. They look at them like the electoral equivalent of a security blanket.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats win, we all know that, but, those horrible margins with the Latino vote mean a total political realignment?

Lol I lived in Anaheim, Tustin and Orange County, we had no State Representative and House Representatives on the ballot, they will vote D next yr

Those are Middle class Latinos which own 800K Homes that  like in IL Dupage County, Costa Mesa is another Latino suburb that is middle class, lol the Latinos in Metro LA and SF and Oak voted overwhelming D

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans are obsessed with Latinos. They look at them like the electoral equivalent of a security blanket.

They want a coalition that is whites without college degrees + latinos to offset the Dem coalition of whites with college degrees + asians + African Americans.  That GOP coalition would be fairly well distributed too.  The problem is the modern GOP keeps selecting racist candidates and this fantasy isn't materializing. 

Most "gains" among Latinos can be explained by particular circumstances like covid causing a Las Vegas shutdown or Miami Cuban outreach.  But every time they do even marginally well (not win) hispanics they say it's a big trend.  This thread is just the latest iteration of this nonsense but it's been going on for years.  In 2004 when Bush did better with latinos they said the same thing.  In 2010 also.  When Marco Rubio and Cruz won, same thing.  Last year, same thing. 

Yet they conveniently gloss over when Obama improved with latinos.  When Beto walloped Cruz (their last datapoint) among latinos.  When latinos were largely responsible for kicking out Arpaio as sheriff in AZ.  Because that shows that the data is noisy and there is absolutely no realignment occurring. 

[Devout Centrist]

Democrats win, we all know that, but, those horrible margins with the Latino vote mean a total political realignment?

What are we basing this on?

[Oryxslayer]

Democrats win, we all know that, but, those horrible margins with the Latino vote mean a total political realignment?

What are we basing this on?

Nothin. Just GOP macro-analysis, that ignores actual data like this:

https://twitter.com/UCLAlatino/status/1438004875657318405?s=20

[Sestak]

This is honestly hilarious. Atlas right wingers have been hyping up this big “Latino abandonment of Newsom in CA. The election has passed and that has not happened. But now those same posters are all going around pretending that it did.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats win, we all know that, but, those horrible margins with the Latino vote mean a total political realignment?

What are we basing this on?

Not to mention the exit polls themselves are adjusting to the vote, and unsurprisingly, Latino vote is going up for NO. Was +16 in earlier exit, now +20 (60/40). Still probably too low compared to reality.

[Non Swing Voter]

The last three posts directly above mine are very persuasive, informed, and reference data and actual analysis indicating no latino vote realignment.  But a few Republicans have a hunch about latinos, and they tend to have a good pulse for the Telemundo demographic... so....

[THG]

No no no, according to Atlas trends only favor Democrats. You're doing this all wrong!