I noticed something interesting. Despite NC nearly supporting Biden in 2020, it actually didn't shift that hard to the left, particularly compared to nearby states - even WV shifted more to Biden than North Carolina! See these examples:
NC (reference point): 2.3 points
VA: 4.8 points (2.5 points more than NC)
KY: 3.9 points (1.6 points more than NC)
WV: 3.2 points (0.9 points more than NC)
TN: 2.8 points (0.5 points more than NC)
SC: 2.6 points (0.3 points more than NC)
GA: 5.4 points (3.1 points more than NC)
Why is this? Why did NC stay more or less static compared to its neighbours, given suburban growth and liberalization and the cities going even bluer? (Interestingly, NC was also home to one of just 6 Clinton/Trump counties outside Texas, Scotland.)
Well for one, it did seem the Trump campaign spent a lot more time fortifying it than the campaign spent on the rest of the states, which it probably correctly assumed (with the exception of GA) wouldn't be competitive. If you looked at that list in 2018 you'd probably think NC is the only state that would be competitive so you'd invest on the ground resources early on there. Highly fought after states tend to not have big swings. It's usually the ones that are taken for granted or assumed to not be competitive (e.g., Michigan in 2016, Georgia in 2020).
